湘西州农产品价格风险管理路径分析

强国必先强农,农强方能国强。为有效规避农产品价格风险,切实保障农民利益,促进乡村振兴全面推进,“保险 + 期货”模式应运而生。湘西州作为湖南省唯一的少数民族自治州,于2020年全面脱贫,但受宏观不利因素与全州自身结构性问题交织影响,民营经济发展缓慢,发生返贫风险仍然较大。本文通过分析湘西州农业金融现状及其存在的问题,结合保险、期货、银行等金融工具,运用“保险 + 期货”模式原理,提出因地制宜完善农业发展机制,健全政策性金融体系的内部协调配合机制,财政资金引导带动社会资本有效投入农业,灵活引入“保险 + 期货”模式等建议。A strong country must first strengthen agriculture, and strong agriculture is the key to a strong country. In order to effectively avoid the price risks of agricultural products, safeguard the interests of farmers, and promote the comprehensive promotion of rural revitalization, the “insurance + futures” model has emerged. As the only ethnic autonomous prefecture in Hunan Province, Xiangxi Prefecture achieved comprehensive poverty alleviation in 2020. However, due to the interweaving of macroeconomic unfavorable factors and structural problems within the prefecture, the development of the private economy has been slow, and the risk of returning to poverty remains high. This article analyzes the current situation and existing problems of agricultural finance in Xiangxi Prefecture, and combines financial tools such as insurance, futures, and banks. Using the principle of the “insurance + futures” model, it proposes to improve the agricultural development mechanism according to local conditions, improve the internal coordination and cooperation mechanism of the policy based financial system, guide fiscal funds to drive effective investment of social capital in agriculture, and flexibly introduce the “insurance + futures” model.

人口老龄化对共同富裕的影响研究

本文聚焦人口老龄化严峻的发展态势,以共同富裕子系统综合指数测算得出人口老龄化在当前阶段对经济社会发展的影响;利用时间固定的空间误差模型研究得出人口老龄化的空间分异与城乡二元结构体制密切相关及现阶段人口老龄化经济压力对共同富裕呈负效应影响,但其部分分量呈正效应,说明先富带后富政策的先见性,而城乡差距对共同富裕的限制作用明显,表明当前协调二元城乡结构的迫切性。为进一步研究共同富裕进程,前期人口老龄化对共同富裕的负向影响能否缓解甚至反转引入门槛模型,寻找人口老龄化对共同富裕异质性影响的临界值。经研究可知,人口老龄化对经济发展的影响呈M型分布,第一个门槛值r为32.38%,当共同富裕越过该值后,人口老龄化对经济社会的发展效益由正转负;共同富裕指数达到59.40%时,其负向影响开始减弱,直至更高水平的共同富裕指数下转化为促进效应。本文仅供参考。