利用一次中强以上地震(M_0(?)4.7)发生后头3天的地震序列资料,应用模式识别、模糊聚类等方法对未来3个月内是否可能发生相当(M=M0±0.3)或更大(M(?)M0)地震作综合判定研究.回顾性预报评分结果表明,应用这些应用数学方法作综合判定...利用一次中强以上地震(M_0(?)4.7)发生后头3天的地震序列资料,应用模式识别、模糊聚类等方法对未来3个月内是否可能发生相当(M=M0±0.3)或更大(M(?)M0)地震作综合判定研究.回顾性预报评分结果表明,应用这些应用数学方法作综合判定比单项方法的效果明显地好.其中模式识别 CORA-3算法的 V 评分值最高,44个已知地震序列样本(5个Ⅰ类,39个Ⅱ类)参加学习和训练,内符识别全部正确.对事先留下的最后4个已知地震序列(2个Ⅰ类,2个Ⅱ类)作外推检验也全对.对研究过程中新发生的二次地震序列,一次正确,一次误判.亨明(Hamming)方法和模糊聚类方法分类的内符评分 V 可达0.8以上.外推也多数正确.展开更多
In the paper, the distribution characteristics of strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area and their geological tectonic background, especially the relation to Sichuan-Yunnan and Sichuan-Qinghai crustal blocks have b...In the paper, the distribution characteristics of strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area and their geological tectonic background, especially the relation to Sichuan-Yunnan and Sichuan-Qinghai crustal blocks have been studied. The main results are: a) Strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area distribute mainly in Sichuan-Yunnan and Sichuan-Qinghai crustal blocks; b) Most of strong earthquakes of the two blocks distribute mainly along their boundary faults; c) A few strong earthquakes are not obviously related to active faults. It shows that the relation between strong earthquakes and geological tectonics can be very complex; d) There is a certain correlativity for seismic activities among boundary faults of the two blocks, but they have different features; e) There are some anomalous changes of velocity structures in the deep crust of boundary faults of the two blocks. Many boundary faults, especially Longmenshan fault, cut obviously the Moho discontinuity. The Xianshuihe fault, a typical strike-slip fault, has no obvious indication of cutting the Moho discontinuity, but has distinct low-velocity zone in different depths.展开更多
文摘利用一次中强以上地震(M_0(?)4.7)发生后头3天的地震序列资料,应用模式识别、模糊聚类等方法对未来3个月内是否可能发生相当(M=M0±0.3)或更大(M(?)M0)地震作综合判定研究.回顾性预报评分结果表明,应用这些应用数学方法作综合判定比单项方法的效果明显地好.其中模式识别 CORA-3算法的 V 评分值最高,44个已知地震序列样本(5个Ⅰ类,39个Ⅱ类)参加学习和训练,内符识别全部正确.对事先留下的最后4个已知地震序列(2个Ⅰ类,2个Ⅱ类)作外推检验也全对.对研究过程中新发生的二次地震序列,一次正确,一次误判.亨明(Hamming)方法和模糊聚类方法分类的内符评分 V 可达0.8以上.外推也多数正确.
基金State Key Basic Research Development and Programming Project of China (G1998040700/95-13-02-03).
文摘In the paper, the distribution characteristics of strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area and their geological tectonic background, especially the relation to Sichuan-Yunnan and Sichuan-Qinghai crustal blocks have been studied. The main results are: a) Strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area distribute mainly in Sichuan-Yunnan and Sichuan-Qinghai crustal blocks; b) Most of strong earthquakes of the two blocks distribute mainly along their boundary faults; c) A few strong earthquakes are not obviously related to active faults. It shows that the relation between strong earthquakes and geological tectonics can be very complex; d) There is a certain correlativity for seismic activities among boundary faults of the two blocks, but they have different features; e) There are some anomalous changes of velocity structures in the deep crust of boundary faults of the two blocks. Many boundary faults, especially Longmenshan fault, cut obviously the Moho discontinuity. The Xianshuihe fault, a typical strike-slip fault, has no obvious indication of cutting the Moho discontinuity, but has distinct low-velocity zone in different depths.
