Probabilistic prediction of expected ground condition and construction time and costs in road tunnels

Ground condition and construction （excavation and support） time and costs are the key factors in decision-making during planning and design phases of a tunnel project. An innovative methodology for probabilistic estimation of ground condition and construction time and costs is proposed, which is an integration of the ground prediction approach based on Markov process, and the time and cost variance analysis based on Monte-Carlo （MC） simulation. The former provides the probabilistic description of ground classification along tunnel alignment according to the geological information revealed from geological profile and boreholes. The latter provides the probabilistic description of the expected construction time and costs for each operation according to the survey feedbacks from experts. Then an engineering application to Hamro tunnel is presented to demonstrate how the ground condition and the construction time and costs are estimated in a probabilistic way. In most items, in order to estimate the data needed for this methodology, a number of questionnaires are distributed among the tunneling experts and finally the mean values of the respondents are applied. These facilitate both the owners and the contractors to be aware of the risk that they should carry before construction, and are useful for both tendering and bidding.

A five years study of fascioliasis and dicrocoeliasis in Iran's slaughterhouses

Objective:Fascioliasis and dicrocoeliasis are the two endemic parasitic diseases of Iran that make lots of economical damages annually.This study has been performed to evaluate infection rate of domesticated animals to fascioliasis and dicrocoeliasis among of slaughtered animals in slaughterhouses of Iran.Methods:In this crosssectional study infection rate of slaughtered animals has been analyzed in 28 provinces of Iran during 5 years period(2003-2007).Results:It is indicated that infection rate was 4.84%to fascioliasis and dicrocoeliasis in this five-year study period.Total removed livers were 815 807 and 771 026 numbers from consumption cycle for fascioliasis and dicrocoeliasis respectively from 32 714 926 slaughtered animals.The highest infection rate was Gilan(20.91%),Mazandaran(16.36%),and Esfahan(9.95%) respectively among studied provinces while the lowest infection rate was indicated in Ilam(0.76%),Boushehr(0.84%),and Yazd(1.51%) respectively. Our data proved the highest frequency rate were identified in summer and autumn for both fascioliasis and dicrocoeliasis.Conclusion:Fascioliasis and dicrocoeliasis are continuously increasing in slaughter animals of Iran.Therefore the results of current study can improve and move up activities against these zoonosis diseases.