In the present paper, different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to model the carbon dioxide emission by using time series data of forty-four years from 1972-2015. The performance...In the present paper, different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to model the carbon dioxide emission by using time series data of forty-four years from 1972-2015. The performance of these developed models was assessed with the help of different selection measure criteria and the model having minimum value of these criteria considered as the best forecasting model. Based on findings, it has been observed that out of different ARIMA models, ARIMA (0, 2, 1) is the best fitted model in predicting the emission of carbon dioxide in Bangladesh. Using this best fitted model, the forecasted value of carbon dioxide emission in Bangladesh, for the year 2016, 2017 and 2018 as obtained from ARIMA (0, 2, 1) was obtained as 83.94657 Metric Tons, 89.90464 Metric Tons and 96.28557 Metric Tons respectively.展开更多
The aim of the study is to explore the regional variation of changing patterns of rainfall in Bangladesh using wavelet transform. The study is completed using rainfall variation of the five regions of Bangladesh as Dh...The aim of the study is to explore the regional variation of changing patterns of rainfall in Bangladesh using wavelet transform. The study is completed using rainfall variation of the five regions of Bangladesh as Dhaka, Cox’s Bazar, Rajshahi, Bogra and Sylhet. The duration of the study period was 69 years for Dhaka, 64 years for Cox’s Bazar, 40 years for Rajshahi, 54 years for Bogra and 55 years for Sylhet. The results of the wavelet analysis reveals that, in Rajshahi the amount of rainfall are decreasing in a significant rate among the other study regions. It also explores the annual periodicity of rainfall for all the study regions along with a special 6-month periodicity in the Cox’s Bazar. In addition, this analysis also explores a dominating 3 - 4 year cycle of rainfall in all the study regions. Besides the climate change in Cox’s Bazar and Sylhet are pretty much alarming.展开更多
This study mainly focuses on exploring the regional variation of the changing patterns of temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh. The analysis is based on the temperature and rainfall variation in Bangladesh over five...This study mainly focuses on exploring the regional variation of the changing patterns of temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh. The analysis is based on the temperature and rainfall variation in Bangladesh over five regions as Dhaka, Cox’s Bazar, Rajshahi, Bogra and Sylhet. The duration of the study period was chosen as 1953-2012 for Dhaka, 1948-2012 for Cox’s Bazar, 1972-2012 for Rajshahi, 1958-2012 for Bogra and 1957-2012 for Sylhet. The findings of the non-parametric Mann-Kendal test reveals that significant increase of maximum temperature has been found in Cox’s Bazar and Sylhet. Significant decrease of maximum temperature has been found in Dhaka and Bogra. Significant increase of minimum temperature has been found in Dhaka and Cox’s Bazar whereas significant decrease has been found in Rajshahi. Significant decrease of rainfall has been found in Rajshahi among the study region. The maximum temperature increases significantly by 0.021 degree Celsius per year in Cox’s Bazar and Sylhet. In case of minimum temperature highest increase is found in Dhaka by 0.049 degree Celsius followed by Cox’s Bazar (0.038 degree Celsius per year) whereas significant decrease has been found in Rajshahi by 0.047 degree Celsius per year.展开更多
文摘In the present paper, different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to model the carbon dioxide emission by using time series data of forty-four years from 1972-2015. The performance of these developed models was assessed with the help of different selection measure criteria and the model having minimum value of these criteria considered as the best forecasting model. Based on findings, it has been observed that out of different ARIMA models, ARIMA (0, 2, 1) is the best fitted model in predicting the emission of carbon dioxide in Bangladesh. Using this best fitted model, the forecasted value of carbon dioxide emission in Bangladesh, for the year 2016, 2017 and 2018 as obtained from ARIMA (0, 2, 1) was obtained as 83.94657 Metric Tons, 89.90464 Metric Tons and 96.28557 Metric Tons respectively.
文摘The aim of the study is to explore the regional variation of changing patterns of rainfall in Bangladesh using wavelet transform. The study is completed using rainfall variation of the five regions of Bangladesh as Dhaka, Cox’s Bazar, Rajshahi, Bogra and Sylhet. The duration of the study period was 69 years for Dhaka, 64 years for Cox’s Bazar, 40 years for Rajshahi, 54 years for Bogra and 55 years for Sylhet. The results of the wavelet analysis reveals that, in Rajshahi the amount of rainfall are decreasing in a significant rate among the other study regions. It also explores the annual periodicity of rainfall for all the study regions along with a special 6-month periodicity in the Cox’s Bazar. In addition, this analysis also explores a dominating 3 - 4 year cycle of rainfall in all the study regions. Besides the climate change in Cox’s Bazar and Sylhet are pretty much alarming.
文摘This study mainly focuses on exploring the regional variation of the changing patterns of temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh. The analysis is based on the temperature and rainfall variation in Bangladesh over five regions as Dhaka, Cox’s Bazar, Rajshahi, Bogra and Sylhet. The duration of the study period was chosen as 1953-2012 for Dhaka, 1948-2012 for Cox’s Bazar, 1972-2012 for Rajshahi, 1958-2012 for Bogra and 1957-2012 for Sylhet. The findings of the non-parametric Mann-Kendal test reveals that significant increase of maximum temperature has been found in Cox’s Bazar and Sylhet. Significant decrease of maximum temperature has been found in Dhaka and Bogra. Significant increase of minimum temperature has been found in Dhaka and Cox’s Bazar whereas significant decrease has been found in Rajshahi. Significant decrease of rainfall has been found in Rajshahi among the study region. The maximum temperature increases significantly by 0.021 degree Celsius per year in Cox’s Bazar and Sylhet. In case of minimum temperature highest increase is found in Dhaka by 0.049 degree Celsius followed by Cox’s Bazar (0.038 degree Celsius per year) whereas significant decrease has been found in Rajshahi by 0.047 degree Celsius per year.
