Deep learning neural networks for spatially explicit prediction of flash flood probability

Flood probability maps are essential for a range of applications,including land use planning and developing mitigation strategies and early warning systems.This study describes the potential application of two architectures of deep learning neural networks,namely convolutional neural networks(CNN)and recurrent neural networks(RNN),for spatially explicit prediction and mapping of flash flood probability.To develop and validate the predictive models,a geospatial database that contained records for the historical flood events and geo-environmental characteristics of the Golestan Province in northern Iran was constructed.The step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis(SWARA)was employed to investigate the spatial interplay between floods and different influencing factors.The CNN and RNN models were trained using the SWARA weights and validated using the receiver operating characteristics technique.The results showed that the CNN model(AUC=0.832,RMSE=0.144)performed slightly better than the RNN model(AUC=0.814,RMSE=0.181)in predicting future floods.Further,these models demonstrated an improved prediction of floods compared to previous studies that used different models in the same study area.This study showed that the spatially explicit deep learning neural network models are successful in capturing the heterogeneity of spatial patterns of flood probability in the Golestan Province,and the resulting probability maps can be used for the development of mitigation plans in response to the future floods.The general policy implication of our study suggests that design,implementation,and verification of flood early warning systems should be directed to approximately 40%of the land area characterized by high and very susceptibility to flooding.

Improved flood susceptibility mapping using a best first decision tree integrated with ensemble learning techniques

Improving the accuracy of flood prediction and mapping is crucial for reducing damage resulting from flood events.In this study,we proposed and validated three ensemble models based on the Best First Decision Tree(BFT)and the Bagging(Bagging-BFT),Decorate(Bagging-BFT),and Random Subspace(RSS-BFT)ensemble learning techniques for an improved prediction of flood susceptibility in a spatially-explicit manner.A total number of 126 historical flood events from the Nghe An Province(Vietnam)were connected to a set of 10 flood influencing factors(slope,elevation,aspect,curvature,river density,distance from rivers,flow direction,geology,soil,and land use)for generating the training and validation datasets.The models were validated via several performance metrics that demonstrated the capability of all three ensemble models in elucidating the underlying pattern of flood occurrences within the research area and predicting the probability of future flood events.Based on the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve(AUC),the ensemble Decorate-BFT model that achieved an AUC value of 0.989 was identified as the superior model over the RSS-BFT(AUC=0.982)and Bagging-BFT(AUC=0.967)models.A comparison between the performance of the models and the models previously reported in the literature confirmed that our ensemble models provided a reliable estimate of flood susceptibilities and their resulting susceptibility maps are trustful for flood early warning systems as well as development of mitigation plans.

Ensemble machine learning models based on Reduced Error Pruning Tree for prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

In this paper,we developed highly accurate ensemble machine learning models integrating Reduced Error Pruning Tree(REPT)as a base classifier with the Bagging(B),Decorate(D),and Random Subspace(RSS)ensemble learning techniques for spatial prediction of rainfallinduced landslides in the Uttarkashi district,located in the Himalayan range,India.To do so,a total of 103 historical landslide events were linked to twelve conditioning factors for generating training and validation datasets.Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve(AUC)were used to evaluate the training and validation performances of the models.The results showed that the single REPT model and its derived ensembles provided a satisfactory accuracy for the prediction of landslides.The D-REPT model with RMSE=0.351 and AUC=0.907 was identified as the most accurate model,followed by RSS-REPT(RMSE=0.353 and AUC=0.898),B-REPT(RMSE=0.396 and AUC=0.876),and the single REPT model(RMSE=0.398 and AUC=0.836),respectively.The prominent ensemble models proposed and verified in this study provide engineers and modelers with insights for development of more advanced predictive models for different landslide-susceptible areas around the world.