Climate Variability & Establishment of Rainfall Threshold Line for Landslide Hazards in Rangamati, Bangladesh

This study aims to evaluate the impact of extreme rainfall events on landslides under current and past climate scenarios. Rainfall-triggered landslides are analyzed by rainfall estimates, derived using statistics of events. It is established that recent climate changes, mainly temperature and rainfall patterns have significantly increased the rainfall-induced landslide hazards in the Rangamati district, Bangladesh. It is also observed that the temperature and rainfall of Rangamati had increased gradually during the last 40 years (1981-2021). On 13 June 2017, a series of landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains (300 mm/24 h) occurred and killed more than 112 people in the Rangamati hill district, Bangladesh. The highest annual decade rainfall is 3816 mm, recorded in 2010-21. A relationship between causalities and the number of events has also been established. The analysis shows that both antecedent and single-day major rainfall patterns can influence sliding events. It is established that monsoonal rainfall (June-September) can significantly influence catastrophic landslide hazard events. Finally, two rainfall threshold lines for the researched area are constructed based on antecedent and single-day major rainfall occurrences, as well as the number of fatalities caused by landslides. Total rainfall of 100 mm (16.66 mm/day) during six days appears to define the minimum rainfall that has led to shallow landslides/slope failures, while 210 mm (35 mm/day) within six days appears to define the lowest rainfall that could be a cause of catastrophic landslide in Rangamati district.

Influence of Seasonal Ground Water Level Fluctuations on the Stability of the Rohingya Refugee Camp Hills of Ukhiya, Teknaf, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh—A Threat for Sustainable Development

Bangladesh is a south Asian Monsoonal Country and the recent precipitation pattern in the Cox’s Bazar area of Bangladesh is changing and increasing the number of monsoonal slope failures and landslide hazards in the Kutubpalong & Balukhali Rohingya camp area. An attempt has been made to see the influence of seasonal variation of ground water level (G.W.L.) fluctuations on the stability of the eco hills and forests of Ukhiya Teknaf region. Ukhiya hills are in great danger because of cutting trees from the hill slopes and it is well established that due to recent change of climate, short term rainfall for few consecutive days during monsoon might show an influence on the factor of safety (Fs) values of the camp hill slopes. A clear G.W.L. variation between dry and wet seasons has an influence on the stability (Fs) values indicating that climate has a strong influence on the stability and threatening sustainable development. A stable or marginally stable slope might be unstable during raining and show a variation of ground water level (G.W.L.). The generation of pore water pressure (P.W.P.) is also influenced by seasonal variation of ground water level. During wet season negative P.W.P. called suction plays an important role to occur slope failures in the Ukhiya hills. Based on all calculated factor of safety values (Fs) at different locations, four (4) susceptible landslide risk zones are identified. They are very high risk (Fs = 0.18 to 0.46), high risk (Fs = 0.56 to 0.75), medium risk (Fs = 0.76 to 1.0) and marginally stable areas (Fs ≈ 1). Proper geo-engineering measures must be taken by the concerned authorizes to reduce P.W.P. during monsoon by installing rain water harvesting system, allowing sufficient drainage & other geotechnical measures to reduce the risk of slope failures in the Ukhiya hills. Based on the stability factor (Fs) at different slope locations of the camp hills, a risk map of the investigated area has been produced for the local community for their safety and to build up awareness & to motivate them to evacuate the site during monsoonal slope failures. The established “Risk Maps” can be used for future geological engineering works as well as for sustainable planning, design and construction purposes relating to adaptation and mitigation of landslide risks in the investigated area.

Multistage Triaxial Behavior of Shallow Landslide Hazard Site Soil of Rangamati Sadar Area, Bangladesh

The soil samples were collected from a shallow landslide hazard site of the Rangamati Sadar in Bangladesh to determine the shear strength properties of the soil. Multistage triaxial consolidation undrained test has become worldwide more accepted to determine the shear strength parameters. Multistage triaxial undrained tests were performed on five samples taken from five different depths of boreholes. Samples were evaluated under two natural conditions and three remolded situations. Samples were consolidated before shearing at confining pressures from 50 kPa to 1200 kPa. All the test results are discussed in terms of deviator stress versus axial strain, mean effective stress versus deviator curves, stress ratio versus axial strain, and excess p. w. p. versus axial strain curves. The samples consolidated at low effective stress first displayed peak positive values of excess p. w. p., followed by increased strains due to sample bulging failure, and only a few samples formed a shear surface failure. The strength parameters were estimated using the maximum deviator stress as the failure criterion i.e. the overall value of the cohesion is 20 kPa and the friction angle is 34°. Hence, the critical state line has been constructed and the critical state parameters have been calculated. The critical state stress ratio M was calculated to be 0.036. The shear strength of soil is one of the significant mechanical properties that are thoroughly used to assess the landslide and liquefaction potentiality of the soil.

The Hidden Earthquake Induced Liquefaction Risks in the Rohingya Refugee Camp Hills & Surrounding Areas of Ukhiya, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh—A Geotechnical Engineering Approach

Liquefaction is one of the major catastrophic geohazards which usually occurs in saturated or partially saturated sandy or silty soils during a seismic event. Evaluating the potential liquefaction risks of a seismically prone area can significantly reduce the loss of lives and damage to civil infrastructures. This research is mainly focused on the earthquake-induced liquefaction risk assessment based on Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) values at different earthquake magnitudes (M = 5.0, 7.0 and 8.0) with a peak ground acceleration (amax) of 0.28 g in the Rohingya Refugee camp and surrounding areas of Ukhiya, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Standard Penetration Test (SPT) results have been evaluated for potential liquefaction assessment. The soils are mainly composed of very loose to loose sands with some silts and clays. Geotechnical properties of these very loose sandy soils are very much consistent with the criteria of liquefiable soil. It is established from the grain size analysis results;the soil of the study area is mainly sand dominated (SP) with some silty clay (SC) which consists of 93.68% to 99.48% sand, 0.06% to 4.71% gravel and 0% to 6.26% silt and clay. Some Clayey Sand (SC) is also present. The silty clay can be characterized as medium (CI) to high plasticity (CH) inorganic clay soil. LPI values have been calculated to identify risk zones and to prepare risk maps of the investigated area. Based on these obtained LPI values, four (4) susceptible liquefaction risk zones are identified as low, medium, high and very high. The established “Risk Maps” can be used for future geological engineering works as well as for sustainable planning, design and construction purposes relating to adaptation and mitigation of seismic hazards in the investigated area.