Neural Network for Estimating Daily Global Solar Radiation Using Temperature, Humidity and Pressure as Unique Climatic Input Variables

Solar radiation is one of the most important parameters for applications, development and research related to renewable energy. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly on the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, sunshine hours, etc. But, many of these are subjective and difficult to measure, and thus they are not always available. In this paper, we propose a method for estimating daily global solar radiation, combining empirical models and artificial neural networks. The model uses temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure as the only climatic input variables. Also, this method is compared with linear regression to verify that the data have nonlinear components. The models are adjusted and validated using data from five meteorological stations in the province of Tucumán, Argentina. Results show that neural networks have better accuracy than empirical models and linear regression, obtaining on average, an error of 2.83 [MJ/m2] in the validation dataset.

Adjustment of Model Parameters to Estimate Distribution Transformers Remaining Lifespan

Currently, the electrical system in Argentina is working at its maximum capacity, decreasing the margin between the installed power and demanded consumption, and drastically reducing the service life of transformer substations due to overload (since the margin for summer peaks is small). The advent of the Smart Grids allows electricity distribution companies to apply data analysis techniques to manage resources more efficiently at different levels (avoiding damages, better contingency management, maintenance planning, etc.). The Smart Grids in Argentina progresses slowly due to the high costs involved. In this context, the estimation of the lifespan reduction of distribution transformers is a key tool to efficiently manage human and material resources, maximizing the lifetime of this equipment. Despite the current state of the smart grids, the electricity distribution companies can implement it using the available data. Thermal models provide guidelines for lifespan estimation, but the adjustment to particular conditions, brands, or material quality is done by adjusting parameters. In this work we propose a method to adjust the parameters of a thermal model using Genetic Algorithms, comparing the estimation values of top-oil temperature with measurements from 315 kVA distribution transformers, located in the province of Tucumán, Argentina. The results show that, despite limited data availability, the adjusted model is suitable to implement a transformer monitoring system.