Atrial fibrillation burden and the risk of stroke:A systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The increased stroke risk associated with atrial fibrillation(AF)burden exceeding 5 min is a matter of debate.In addition,the potential linear or nonlinear relationship between AF burden and stroke risk has been largely unexplored.AIM To determine the association between AF burden>5 min and the increased risk of stroke and explore the potential dose-response relationship between these two factors.METHODS Sixteen studies from six databases with 53141 subjects(mean age 65 years)were included.Fifteen studies were observational studies,and one was a randomized controlled trial study.The potential nonlinear dose-response association was characterized using a restricted cubic splines regression model.AF burden for each 1 h and 2 h was associated with an increased risk of stroke.Trial sequential analysis with a random-effect model was used to evaluate the robustness of the evidence from the included 16 studies.RESULTS AF burden>5 min was associated with an increased risk of clinical AF[adjusted risk ratio(RR)=4.18,95%confidence interval(CI):2.26-7.74].However,no association was found with an increased risk of all-cause mortality(adjusted RR=1.55,95%CI:0.87-2.75).Patients with AF burden>5 min had an increased risk of stroke(adjusted RR=2.49,95%CI:1.79-3.47).Moreover,a dose-response analysis showed that the increased stroke risk was paralleled by an increase in AF burden at a rate of 2.0%per hour(Pnonlinear=0.656,RR=1.02,95%CI:1.01-1.03).Trial sequential analysis provided robust evidence of the association between AF burden>5 min and an increased risk of stroke.CONCLUSION AF burden was a significant risk factor for clinical AF and future stroke.A significant linear association was documented between increased AF burden and risk of future stroke.