Caused by four serotypes,dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide.Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections,assuming that lifelong immunity prevents r...Caused by four serotypes,dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide.Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections,assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections by the same serotype.However,recent findings challenge this assumption,prompting a reevaluation of dengue immunity dynamics.In this study,we develop a within-host modeling framework to explore different scenarios of dengue infections.Unlike previous studies,we go beyond a deterministic framework,considering individual immunological variability.Both deterministic and stochastic models are calibrated using empirical data on viral load and antibody(IgM and IgG)concentrations for all dengue serotypes,incorporating confidence intervals derived from stochastic realizations.With good agreement between the mean of the stochastic realizations and the mean field solution for each model,our approach not only successfully captures primary and heterologous secondary infection dynamics facilitated by antibody-dependent enhancement(ADE)but also provides,for the first time,insights into homotypic reinfection dynamics.Our study discusses the relevance of homotypic reinfections in dengue transmission at the population level,highlighting potential implications for disease prevention and control strategies.展开更多
基金Akhil kumar Srivastav acknowledged the financial support by the ministerio de ciencia e innovación(MICINN)of the Spanish Government through the juan de la cierva grant FJC2021-046826-IM.A.acknowledges the financial support by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación(MICINN)of the Spanish Government through the Ramón y Cajal grant RYC 2021-031380-IThis research is supported by the Basque Government through the“Mathematical Modeling Applied to Health”Project,BERC 2022–2025 program and by the Spanish Ministry of Sciences,Innovation and Universities:BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation CEX 2021-001142-S/MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.
文摘Caused by four serotypes,dengue fever is a major public health concern worldwide.Current modeling efforts have mostly focused on primary and heterologous secondary infections,assuming that lifelong immunity prevents reinfections by the same serotype.However,recent findings challenge this assumption,prompting a reevaluation of dengue immunity dynamics.In this study,we develop a within-host modeling framework to explore different scenarios of dengue infections.Unlike previous studies,we go beyond a deterministic framework,considering individual immunological variability.Both deterministic and stochastic models are calibrated using empirical data on viral load and antibody(IgM and IgG)concentrations for all dengue serotypes,incorporating confidence intervals derived from stochastic realizations.With good agreement between the mean of the stochastic realizations and the mean field solution for each model,our approach not only successfully captures primary and heterologous secondary infection dynamics facilitated by antibody-dependent enhancement(ADE)but also provides,for the first time,insights into homotypic reinfection dynamics.Our study discusses the relevance of homotypic reinfections in dengue transmission at the population level,highlighting potential implications for disease prevention and control strategies.
