Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global o...Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model(MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios.It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while boththe frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a fewpercent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the restof the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases,suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. SouthChina is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitationintensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warmingand an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may berelated with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease insummer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitationcontrast more in the future.展开更多
基金funded by the'Study of the Prediction of Regional Climate Changes over Japan due to Global Warming'project，the'Water Resource and Its Variability in Asia in the 21st Century'project
文摘Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model(MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios.It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while boththe frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a fewpercent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the restof the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases,suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. SouthChina is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitationintensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warmingand an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may berelated with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease insummer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitationcontrast more in the future.
