Seismogenic ULF/ELF Wave Phenomena: Recent Advances and Future Perspectives

There has been enormous progress in the field of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes (EQs) and EQ prediction during the last three decades, and it is recently agreed that electromagnetic effects do appear prior to an EQ. A few phenomena are well recognized as being statistically correlated with EQs as promising candidates for short-term EQ predictors: the first is ionospheric perturbation not only in the lower ionosphere as seen by subionospheric VLF (very low frequency, 3 kHz f 30 kHz)/LF (low frequency, 30 kHz f 300 kHz) propagation but also in the upper F region as detected by ionosondes, TEC (total electron content) observations, satellite observations, etc, and the second is DC earth current known as SES (Seismic electric signal). In addition to the above two physical phenomena, this review highlights the following four physical wave phenomena in ULF (ultra low frequency, frequency Hz)/ELF (extremely low frequency, 3 Hz frequency 3 kHz) ranges, including 1) ULF lithospheric radiation (i.e., direct radiation from the lithosphere), 2) ULF magnetic field depression effect (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbation), 3) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation (radiation in the atmosphere), and 4) Schumann resonance (SR) anomalies (as an indicator of the perturbations in the lower ionosphere and stratosphere). For each physical item, we will repeat the essential points and also discuss recent advances and future perspectives. For the purpose of future real EQ prediction practice, we pay attention to the statistical correlation of each phenomenon with EQs, and its predictability in terms of probability gain. Of course, all of those effects are recommended as plausible candidates for short-term EQ prediction, and they can be physically explained in terms of the unified concept of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process, so a brief description of this coupling has been carried out by using these four physical parameters though the mechanism of each phenomenon is still poorly understood. In conclusion, we have to emphasize the importance of more statistical studies for more abundant datasets sometimes with the use of AI (artificial intelligence) techniques, more case studies for huge (M greater than 7) EQ events, recommendation of critical analyses, and finally multi-parameters observation (even though it is tough work).

A Study on the Correlation of Milk Yield of Cows with Seismicity and ULF Magnetic Field Variations

A statistical study on the basis of one-year data of 2014 has been performed in order to find whether abnormal animal behavior is related with seismic activity and also whether the ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) electromagnetic radiation might be a possible sensory mechanism of abnormal animal behavior. Abnormal animal behavior has been studied with the use of digitally recorded milk yield of cows at Ibaraki Prefecture Livestock Station, and the ULF magnetic field changes have been studied with the data at a magnetic observatory of Kakioka. As the result of correlation analyses, clear responses are observed for both the milk yield of cows and ULF magnetic field changes (both ULF radiation (ULF emissions from the lithosphere) and ULF depression (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbations)) for most powerful and not distant earthquakes (EQs) with magnitude > 6, that is, the milk yield of cows is found to exhibit a conspicuous depletion about 17 - 18 days before an EQ, though the correlation coefficient is not so big. Another important objective in this paper is to identify that ULF radiation is the main agent of abnormal behavior so that we have compared the temporal evolutions of milk yield of cows, ULF radiation and ULF depression for three major EQs. As a result, it is found that ULF radiation happens, at least, during the periods of abnormal depletion of milk yield of cows.

On the Precursory Abnormal Animal Behavior and Electromagnetic Effects for the Kobe Earthquake (M~6) on April 12, 2013

After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (EQ), there have been numerous aftershocks in the eastern and Pacific Ocean of Japan, but EQs are still rare in the western part of Japan. In this situation a relatively large (magnitude (M) ~6) EQ happened on April 12 (UT), 2013 at a place close to the former 1995 Kobe EQ (M~7), so we have tried to find whether there existed any precursors to this EQ, especially abnormal animal behavior (milk yield of cows), observed at Kagawa, Shikoku, near the EQ epicenter. The milk yield of cows has been continuously monitored at Kagawa, and it is found that the milk yield exhibited an abnormal depletion about 10 days before the EQ. This behavior has been extensively compared with the former electromagnetic precursors (ULF radiation, ionos-pheric perturbation). This leads to the discussion on the sensory mechanism of unusual behavior of mild yield of cows, and it may be suggested that ULF radiation among different electromagnetic precursors is a mostly likely driver, at least, for this EQ.

An Integrated Study of ULF Magnetic Field Variations in Association with the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake, on the Basis of Statistical and Critical Analyses

The ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic field data at a station very close to the 2008 Sichuan earthquake (EQ) (on 12 May, 2008;M = 8.0) are extensively studied on the basis of combined statistical and natural time analyses. Two effects in ULF are treated: one is the well-known ULF radiation from the lithosphere, and the other is the non-conventional depression of ULF horizontal magnetic field. The simple statistical analysis has yielded: 1) no clear evidence of the presence of precursory ULF radiation, and 2) a significant effect of depression of ULF horizontal field a few days before the EQ (as a signature of ionospheric perturbations). The recently introduced natural time analysis has also been performed in order to study the critical features of the lithosphere and essentially new information has been brought about. The parameter “polarization”, as the ratio of vertical to horizontal components, showed critical features in the time period of 17 - 27 April, about one month to two weeks before the EQ as a signature of lithospheric radiation. Then, the natural time analysis has reconfirmed the presence of ionospheric perturbations a few days before the EQ, together with an additional time window found on 19 - 23 April, about one month before the EQ, exhibiting critical features in the ULF depression.

Electromagnetic Precursors to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes

The Kumamoto area of Kyusyu Island was attacked by a series of large earthquakes (EQs) in April, 2016. The first two foreshocks had the magnitudes of 6.5 and 6.4, and about 1 day later there was the main shock on 15 April (UT) with magnitude 7.3. These are fault-type EQs, and so we would expect a variety of electromagnetic precursors to these EQs because we had detected different phenomena for the 1995 Kobe EQ, same fault-type EQ. As for the lithospheric effect, the ULF data at Kanoya observatory (about 150 km from the EQ epicenters) are used, but the simple statistical analysis could not provide us with any clear evidence of ULF radiation from the lithosphere. However, our conventional analyses indicated clear signatures in the atmosphere as ULF/ELF impulsive emissions and also in the ionosphere as observed by means of VLF propagation anomalies and ULF depression. ULF/ELF radiation appeared on 8-11 April (in UT) (maximum on 10 and 11 April (UT)), while ULF depression took place on 8 and 10 April (in UT), so that both atmospheric radiation and ionospheric perturbation took place nearly during the same time period.

On the Anomalies in ULF Magnetic Field Variations Prior to the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake

There have been reported several papers on the ionospheric F region perturbations prior to the 2008 Sichuan earthquake (EQ) (magnitude 8.0), but it seems that very few reports have been published on the characteristics of ground-based ULF (ultra low frequency) magnetic field variations for this EQ. This paper deals with two different aspects of ground-based ULF magnetic field variations: 1) ULF radiation from the lithosphere, and 2) depression of ULF horizontal magnetic field as a signature of lower ionospheric perturbations. ULF data from two Chinese stations [Chengdu (epicentral distance, 80 km) and Xichang (about 300 km away from the EQ epicenter)] are analyzed, with paying attention to the local nighttime period (LT = 22 h to 02 h, UTC = 14 h to 18 h) in order to avoid man-made noise. We have analyzed powers of the horizontal component (H2), vertical component (Z2), polarization as their ratio (Z2/H2), depression of the horizontal component (as an inverse of horizontal magnetic field component power, 1/H2) and δDep as a variation of depression at a particular frequency of 0.01 - 0.02 Hz (10 - 20 mHz). It is then found that there seems no clear signature of lithospheric ULF radiation. Whilst, the most evident fact is the finding of depression of ULF horizontal magnetic field at Chengdu a few days before the Sichuan EQ, which suggests that the lower ionosphere was perturbed before the EQ. The characteristics of the lower ionospheric perturbations are compared with those of upper ionospheric perturbations reported before.