The version 2.1 of PETROMAR-3D model, created in the Center for Marine Meteorology of the Meteorology Institute of Cuba, is presented. This Lagrangian model has been designed to describe the physical processes of mari...The version 2.1 of PETROMAR-3D model, created in the Center for Marine Meteorology of the Meteorology Institute of Cuba, is presented. This Lagrangian model has been designed to describe the physical processes of marine oil spills in the face of multiple scenarios of the marine environment. Although it is applicable to any part of the world, it is mainly designed for inter-American seas. The novelty has been to integrate the processes of drift and weathering into a model, with updated methods that incorporate 3D phenomena, a very favorable situation to achieve an operating system in Cuba and the region for the immediate and medium term. Python was chosen as the programming language because it has advanced libraries for numerical modeling, automation work and other useful tools for pre-and post-processing. By means of adapters, an important number of atmospheric, hydrodynamic and wave models have been considered to create the scenarios efficiently. The modular distribution in which the code has been created facilitates its use for other dispersion analysis and biophysical applications. Finally, a set of simple images are presented, aimed at informing decision-makers in order to mitigate the effects of the spill on the environment.展开更多
This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goa...This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goal, several computing and statistical tools were used to develop the probabilistic modeling solution based in the methodology of Guo. Solution was implemented using a databases approach and SQL language. A case study is presented which is based on a hypothetical spill in a location inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba. Important outputs and products of probabilistic modeling were obtained, which are very useful for decision-makers and operators in charge to face oil spill accidents and prepare contingency plans to minimize its effects. In order to study the relationship between the initial trajectory and the arrival of hydrocarbons spills to the coast, a new approach is introduced as an incoming perspective for modeling. It consists in storage in databases the direction of movement of the oil slick at the first 24 hours. The probabilistic modeling solution presented is of great importance for hazard studies of oil spills in Cuban coastal areas.展开更多
文摘The version 2.1 of PETROMAR-3D model, created in the Center for Marine Meteorology of the Meteorology Institute of Cuba, is presented. This Lagrangian model has been designed to describe the physical processes of marine oil spills in the face of multiple scenarios of the marine environment. Although it is applicable to any part of the world, it is mainly designed for inter-American seas. The novelty has been to integrate the processes of drift and weathering into a model, with updated methods that incorporate 3D phenomena, a very favorable situation to achieve an operating system in Cuba and the region for the immediate and medium term. Python was chosen as the programming language because it has advanced libraries for numerical modeling, automation work and other useful tools for pre-and post-processing. By means of adapters, an important number of atmospheric, hydrodynamic and wave models have been considered to create the scenarios efficiently. The modular distribution in which the code has been created facilitates its use for other dispersion analysis and biophysical applications. Finally, a set of simple images are presented, aimed at informing decision-makers in order to mitigate the effects of the spill on the environment.
文摘This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goal, several computing and statistical tools were used to develop the probabilistic modeling solution based in the methodology of Guo. Solution was implemented using a databases approach and SQL language. A case study is presented which is based on a hypothetical spill in a location inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba. Important outputs and products of probabilistic modeling were obtained, which are very useful for decision-makers and operators in charge to face oil spill accidents and prepare contingency plans to minimize its effects. In order to study the relationship between the initial trajectory and the arrival of hydrocarbons spills to the coast, a new approach is introduced as an incoming perspective for modeling. It consists in storage in databases the direction of movement of the oil slick at the first 24 hours. The probabilistic modeling solution presented is of great importance for hazard studies of oil spills in Cuban coastal areas.
