Generating capacity adequacy evaluation of large-scale, grid-connected photovoltaic systems

Large-scale, grid-connected photovoltaic sys- tems have become an essential part of modem electric power distribution systems. In this paper, a novel approach based on the Markov method has been proposed to investigate the effects of large-scale, grid-connected photovoltaic systems on the reliability of bulk power systems. The proposed method serves as an applicable tool to estimate performance （e.g., energy yield and capacity） as well as reliability indices. The Markov method frame- work has been incorporated with the＇ multi-state models to develop energy states of the photovoltaic systems in order to quantify the effects of the photovoltaic systems on the power system adequacy. Such analysis assists planners to make adequate decisions based on the economical expectations as well as to ensure the recovery of the investment costs over time. The failure states of the components of photovoltaic systems have been considered to evaluate the sensitivity analysis and the adequacy indices including loss of load expectation, and expected energy not supplied. Moreover, the impacts of transitions between failures on the reliability calculations as well as on the long- term operation of the photovoltaic systems have been illustrated. Simulation results on the Roy Billinton test system has been shown to illustrate the procedure of the proposed frame work and evaluate the reliability benefits of using large-scale, grid-connected photovoltaic system on the bulk electric power systems. The proposed method can be easily extended to estimate the operating and maintenance costs for the financial planning of the photovoltaic system projects.

Reliability evaluation of future photovoltaic systems with smart operation strategy

This paper investigates a new operation strategy for photovoltaic （PV） systems, which improves the overall reliability of the system as a result of the improvement in the reliability of the critical components. First, a mathematical model is proposed using the fault tree analysis （FTA） to estimate the reliability of the PV systems in order to find the suitable maintenance strategies. The implementations demonstrate that it is essential to employ smart maintenance plans and monitor the identified most critical components of PV systems. Then, an innovative analytical method based on the Markov process is presented to model smart operation plans in PV systems. The impact of smart operation strategy on the PV systems is then evaluated. The objective of this paper is to develop plans for improving the reliability of PV systems. A series of case studies have been conducted to demonstrate the importance of smart operation well as the applicability and method. strategies for PV systems as feasibility of the proposed

A new method for estimating the longevity and degradation of hotovoltaic systems considering weather states

The power output of solar photovoltaic （PV） systems is affected by solar radiation and ambient temperature. The commonly used evaluation techniques usually overlook the four weather states which are clear, cloudy, foggy, and rainy. In this paper, an ovel analytical model of the four weather conditions based on the Markov chain is proposed. The Markov method is well suited to estimate the reliability and availability of systems based on a continuous stochastic process. The proposed method is generic enough to be applied to reliability evaluation of PV systems and even other applications. Further aspects investigated include the new degradation model for reliability predication of PV modules. The results indicate that the PV module degradation over years, failures, and solar radiation must be considered in choosing an efficient PV system with an optimal design to achieve the maximum benefit of the PV system. For each aspect, a method is proposed, and the complete focusing methodology is expounded and validated using simulated point targets. The results also demonstrate the feasibility and applic- ability of the proposed method for effective modeling of the chronological aspects and stochastic characteristics of solar cells as well as the optimal configuration and sizing of large PV plants in terms of cost and reliability.

A novel method for reliability and risk evaluation of wind energy conversion systems considering wind speed correlation

This paper investigates an analytical approach for the reliability modeling of doubly fed induction generator （DFIG） wind turbines. At present, to the best of the authors＇ knowledge, wind speed and wind turbine generator outage have not been addressed simultaneously. In this paper, a novel methodology based on the Weibull- Markov method is proposed for evaluating the probabil- istic reliability of the bulk electric power systems, including DFIG wind turbines, considering wind speed and wind turbine generator outage. The proposed model is presented in terms of appropriate wind speed modeling as well as capacity outage probability table （COPT）, considering component failures of the wind turbine generators. Based on the proposed method, the COPT of the wind farm has been developed and utilized on the IEEE RBTS to estimate the well-known reliability and sensitive indices. The simulation results reveal the importance of inclusion of wind turbine generator outage as well as wind speed in the reliability assessment of the wind farms. Moreover, the proposed method reduces the complexity of using analytical methods and provides an accurate reliability model for the wind turbines. Furthermore, several case studies are considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in practical applications.