A Stochastic Model to Assess the Epidemiological Impact of Vaccine Booster Doses on COVID-19 and Viral Hepatitis B Co-Dynamics with Real Data

A patient co-infected with COVID-19 and viral hepatitis B can be atmore risk of severe complications than the one infected with a single infection.This study develops a comprehensive stochastic model to assess the epidemiological impact of vaccine booster doses on the co-dynamics of viral hepatitis B and COVID-19.The model is fitted to real COVID-19 data from Pakistan.The proposed model incorporates logistic growth and saturated incidence functions.Rigorous analyses using the tools of stochastic calculus,are performed to study appropriate conditions for the existence of unique global solutions,stationary distribution in the sense of ergodicity and disease extinction.The stochastic threshold estimated from the data fitting is given by:R_(0)^(S)=3.0651.Numerical assessments are implemented to illustrate the impact of double-dose vaccination and saturated incidence functions on the dynamics of both diseases.The effects of stochastic white noise intensities are also highlighted.

Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

The recent mpox outbreak(in 2022e2023)has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the disease.During this outbreak,sexual contact was believed to be the primary transmission route of the disease.In addition,the community of men having sex with men(MSM)was disproportionately affected by the outbreak.This population is also disproportionately affected by HIV infection.Given that both diseases can be transmitted sexually,the endemicity of HIV,and the high sexual behavior associated with the MSM community,it is essential to understand the effect of the two diseases spreading simultaneously in an MSM population.Particularly,we aim to understand the potential effects of HIV on an mpox outbreak in the MSM population.We develop a mechanistic mathematical model of HIV and mpox co-infection.Our model incorporates the dynamics of both diseases and considers HIV treatment with antiretroviral therapy(ART).In addition,we consider a potential scenario where HIV infection increases susceptibility to mpox,and investigate the potential impact of this mechanism on mpox dynamics.Our analysis shows that HIV can facilitate the spread of mpox in an MSM population,and that HIV treatment with ART may not be sufficient to control the spread of mpox in the population.However,we showed that a moderate use of condoms or reduction in sexual contact in the population combined with ART is beneficial in controlling mpox transmission.Based on our analysis,it is evident that effective control of HIV,specifically through substantial ART use,moderate condom compliance,and reduction in sexual contact,is imperative for curtailing the transmission of mpox in an MSM population and mitigating the compounding impact of these intertwined epidemics.