Climate Services Elaboration for Cocoa Cultivation in Côte d’Ivoire: Contribution of CORDEX Climate Projections

This study assessed the contribution of climate projections to improving rainfall information for cocoa crops in the central and southern regions of Côte d’Ivoire. Particular attention was paid to fourteen localities in these two climatic zones. Simulation data were obtained from the CORDEX ensemble and observation data from CHIRPS. They cover the period 1991-2005 for the reference period and the future period from 2021 to 2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study was based on the water requirements necessary during the critical phase of the cocoa tree (the flowering phase) for a good yield from the cocoa production chain on the one hand, and on a selection of three climate indices CDD, CWD and r95PTOT to study their spatio-temporal changes over two future periods 2021-2035 (near future) and 2036-2050 (medium-term) on the other. These climatic indices influence cocoa cultivation and their use in studies of climatic impacts on agriculture is of prime importance. The analysis of their spatio-temporal changes in this work also contributes to providing climate services based on rainfall, to which cocoa crops are highly sensitive. Our results show that the CDD and CWD indices vary from one region to another depending on latitude. For the fourteen localities studied, the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase between now and 2050, while the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) could decrease over the period 2021-2035 and then increase over the period 2036-2050. The localities of Tabou, Aboisso and San-Pedro record high numbers of CDD index and CWD index for both projection scenarios. In comparison with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, these results show that the RCP8.5 scenarios are having an impact on cocoa growing in Côte d’Ivoire.

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d’Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-AFRICA simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate the existence of three climate zones in Côte d’Ivoire (the coastal, the centre and the north) over the historical period (1981-2005). Moreover, CORDEX simulations project an extension of the surface area of drier climatic zones while a reduction of wetter zones, associated with the appearance of an intermediate climate zone with surface area varying from 77,560 km2 to 134,960 km2 depending on the period and the scenario. These results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the delimitation of the climate zones of Côte d’Ivoire under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, there is a reduction in the surface areas suitable for the production of cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. This could hinder the country’s economy and development, mainly based on these cash crops.

Influence of Continental Atmospheric Forcing on the Decadal Variability of the West African Monsoon

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is characterized by strong decadal and multi-decadal variability and the impacts can be catastrophic for the local populations. One of the factors put forward to explain this variability involves the role of atmospheric dynamics, linked in particular to the Saharan Heat Low (SHL). This article addresses this question by comparing the sets of preindustrial control and historical simulation data from climate models carried out in the framework of the CMIP5 project and observations data over the 20th century. Through multivariate statistical analyses, it was established that decadal modes of ocean variability and decadal variability of Saharan atmospheric dynamics significantly influence decadal variability of monsoon precipitation. These results also suggest the existence of external anthropogenic forcing, which is superimposed on the decadal natural variability inducing an intensification of the signal in the historical simulations compared to preindustrial control simulations. We have also shown that decadal rainfall variability in the Sahel, once the influence of oceanic modes has been eliminated, appears to be driven mainly by the activity of the Arabian Heat Low (AHL) in the central Sahel, and by the structure of the meridional temperature gradient over the inter-tropical Atlantic in the western Sahel.

Contribution of Climate Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to the Study of Climate Change Impacts on Cocoa Farming in Côte d’Ivoire

In the particular context of climate change in Côte d’Ivoire and the vulnerability of farmers to its effects, one of the major issues is how these changes could impact cocoa yields of cocoa production areas. Thus, the objective of this study is to sustainably increase the resilience of all cocoa farming stakeholders to the impacts of climate change. The study was carried out in the central and southern areas of Côte d’Ivoire with a focus on eleven localities that have many communities of cocoa producers and a humid climate. The rainfall and temperature observation data using come from the CRU, they cover the historical period from 1971 to 2000 at 0.5o × 0.5o horizontal scale. As for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, they come from the CORDEX database and cover the 2021-2050 period. The methodology is based on the calculation of climatic indices sensitive to cocoa cultivation which are the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the amount of rain during the rainy season and the maximum temperature above 33℃. The results show that for all the localities studied, indices such as CDD and CWD could experience an increase. In addition, the total amount of rain during the long rainy season (April to June) is calculated on the basis of the threshold of 700 mm representing the minimum annual precipitation during the rainy season necessary for good growth of the cocoa tree. It reveals that for the two scenarios the cumulative rainfall will all be greater than 700 mm. Regarding temperatures, the central and southern areas could have a low number of hot days (temperature greater than or equal to 33℃ which is the tolerable threshold for cocoa cultivation). The eleven localities, therefore, remain favorable areas for cocoa cultivation in terms of climatic conditions based on temperature and rainfall, despite the regional dimension of the effects of climate change and the associated constraints.

Climate Impact on the Productivity of Sugarcane Varieties in Ferke1 Industrial Plantations

This study assesses the climate impact on the productivity of five sugarcane varieties (R579, SP711406, M2593/92, M1400/86, and SP701006) in the industrial plantations of Ferké 1 sugar complex. It is a contribution to research efforts aimed at increasing the productivity of sugarcane varieties in the sugar fields. Also to support agricultural development and guarantee the income of planters. The sugarcane production data are from 2013 to 2017. Climatological data are measured and calculated continuously daily at the production site. In addition, the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate database at 1º × 1º horizontal resolution was used for the predictability of crop yields of the 5 sugarcane varieties in the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2056-2075) to improve the quality of climate services to producers. The statistical methodological approach by multiple linear regression associated with the significativity test shows important and significant coefficients of determination (R2 > 0.90) between the yields of sugarcane varieties with certain climatic parameters such as minimum and maximum temperatures, insolation, global solar radiation, and potential evapotranspiration. The impact of rainfall has not been directly evaluated because the linear models do not explicitly show sensitivities to this parameter and the total water requirements for the plot are completely assured by irrigation. The future climate projections analyzed only from extreme thermal parameters (Tmax and Tmin) highlight their strong sensitivities with yields from an idealized model. In this model, we have assumed that the water supply needed by sugarcane is always met by irrigation on different plots. Moreover, linear models do not evolve fast enough in time and changes due to external environmental constraints are not too important at the plot scale. The projected thermic parameters can thus constitute a limiting factor for the producibility of sugarcane varieties either by excess or by default. In addition, the linear models used allowed us to observe the behavior of yields with respect to observed past climatic conditions. However, for future yields, there is no way to know if these regressions have the ability to predict them since they are based on projected weather conditions (i.e. CMIP5 data) marked by uncertainties. Additionally, none of the regression equations have been tested against independent observations.

Influence of Climate on Sugarcane Yield in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Ferkessédougou Region

This study aims to understand the current climatic trends and explain the possible losses of agricultural yields. To achieve this objective, this work characterized the evolution of extreme temperature indices in the sugar complexes of Ferké 1 and Ferké 2, two stations located in the northern part of C?te d'Ivoire. The onset and cessation dates of the rainy season and the length of the rainy season were investigated. The agricultural and climatic data were obtained from each sugar complex. The period of study ranges from 2002 to 2019 in Ferké 1 and Ferké 2. The results show significant upward trends in extreme temperature indices. The analysis of sugarcane yield associated with the different climatic parameters shows no significant results in general. However, on the Ferkessédougou sugar complexes, the results highlight that maximum and minimum temperatures could be the variables that influence most yield production. The maximum temperature with coefficients of 1.60 and 0.77 at Ferké 1 and Ferké 2 respectively seems to contribute to an increase in yield while the minimum temperature with coefficients of -0.98 and -0.22 at Ferké 1 and Ferké 2 respectively could lead to a loss in yield. The results obtained with the Single Linear Regression (SLR) and the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models also highlight the strong influence of minimum and maximum temperatures.

Sensitivity of Solar Photovoltaic Panel Efficiency to Weather and Dust over West Africa: Comparative Experimental Study between Niamey (Niger) and Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire)

Energy demand is increasing while we are facing a depletion of fossils fuels, the main source of energy production in the world. These last years, photovoltaic (PV) system technologies are growing rapidly among alternative sources of energy to contribute to mitigation of climate change. However, PV system efficiency researches operating under West African weather conditions are nascent. The first objective of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of common monocrystalline PV efficiency to local meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity, solar radiation) in two contrasted cities over West Africa: Niamey (Niger) in a Sahelian arid area and Abidjan (Cote d’Ivoire) in atropical humid area. The second objective is to quantify the effect of dust accumulation on PV efficiency in Niamey (Niger). The preliminary results show that PV efficiency is more sensitive to high temperature change especially under Niamey climate conditions (warmer than Abidjan) where high ambient temperatures above 33°C lead to an important decrease of PV efficiency. Increase of relative humidity induces a decrease of PV efficiency in both areas (Niamey and Abidjan). A power loss up to 12.46% is observed in Niamey after 21 days of dust accumulation.

Hydrological Characterization of Water Resources Used for Sugarcane Production in the Sugar Complexes of Ferkessedougou (North of Côte d’Ivoire)

Water resources, although renewable, are limited and threatened by climate change and anthropic activities. Assessment and forecasting of these resources can provide valuable information for water resource planners. This study aims to quantify the surface water resources used for sugarcane production in sugar complexes of Ferkessedougou. This is based on the morphological characterization of the river Morrison and Lopkoho dams and on extreme daily flow probability of occurrence estimation using frequency analysis method. The bathymetric survey showed that the Morrison Dam impoundment had a maximum depth of 11.98 m;a water capacity of 11,656,735.5 m3. For the Lokpoho dam, the reservoir had a maximum depth of 8.82 m, which corresponds to a water volume of 4,354,531.5 m3. Nevertheless, the water capacity of these reservoirs is greatly reduced by a large volume of sediment estimated at 1,013,058.96 m3 for Morrison and 599,740 m3 for Lokpoho. Statistical analysis of maximum daily flows shows that flows between 73.9 and 100 m3/s have the potential to occur every five years at the Route Korhogo Badikaha hydrometric station. The recurrence of the decennial (298 m3) and quinquenal (248 m3) flows shows the importance of the flood flows of the Bandama River. It also shows that the low water levels of the Bandama are very pronounced. The minimum flow that SUCAF-CI water managers should expect every five years is 1.36 m3/s and the ten-year low flow is 2.10 m3/s. These results are indicators of water scarcity risks and could guide decision making in the Ferkessedougou sugar complexes.

Sensitivity Study of the RegCM4’s Surface Schemes in the Simulations of West Africa Climate

Two simulations of five years (2003-2007) were conducted with the Regional Climate models RegCM4, one coupled with Land surface models BATS and the other with CLM4.5 over West Africa, where simulated air temperature and precipitation were analyzed. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of RegCM4 coupled with the new CLM4.5 Land surface scheme and the standard one named BATS in order to find the best configuration of RegCM4 over West African. This study could improve our understanding of the sensitivity of land surface model in West Africa climate simulation, and provide relevant information to RegCM4 users. The results show fairly realistic restitution of West Africa’s climatology and indicate correlations of 0.60 to 0.82 between the simulated fields (BATS and CLM4.5) for precipitation. The substitution of BATS surface scheme by CLM4.5 in the model configuration, leads mainly to an improvement of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean, however, the impact is not sufficiently noticeable over the continent. While the CLM4.5 experiment restores the seasonal cycles and spatial distribution, the biases increase for precipitation and temperature. Positive biases already existing with BATS are amplified over some sub-regions. This study concludes that temporal localization (seasonal effect), spatial distribution (grid points) and magnitude of precipitation and temperature (bias) are not simultaneously improved by CLM4.5. The introduction of the new land surface scheme CLM4.5, therefore, leads to a performance of the same order as that of BATS, albeit with a more detailed formulation.

Impacts of the Sahel-Sahara Interface Reforestation on West African Climate: Intra-Annual Variability and Extreme Temperature Events

The impacts of the reforestation of the Sahel-Sahara interface on the seasonal distribution of the surface temperature and thermal extremes are studied in the Sahel (West African region lying between 11&#176N and 18&#176N). We performed a simulation with the standard version of the RegCM4 model followed by another one using the altered version of the same model taking into account an incorporated forest. The impacts of the vegetation change are assessed by analyzing the difference between the two runs. The reforestation may influence strongly the frequency of warm days (TG90P) and very warm days (TX90P) by decreasing it over the reforested zone from March to May (MAM) and the entire Sahel during the June-August (JJA) period. These TG90P and TX90P indices decrease may be due to the strengthening of the atmospheric moisture content over the whole Sahel region and the weakening of the sensible heat flux over the reforested zone. The analysis also shows a decrease of the TN90P indice (warm nights) over the Sahel during the wet season (JJA) which could be partly associated with the strengthening of the evapotranspiration over the whole Sahel domain. The analysis of additional thermal indices shows an increase of the tropical nights over the entire Sahel from December to February (DJF) and during the warm season (MAM). The strengthening of the tropical night is partly associated with an increase of the surface net downward shortwave flux over the reforested zone. When considering the heat waves, an increase (a decrease) of these events is recorded over the southern Sahel during JJA and SON periods (over the whole Sahelian region during DJF), respectively. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these extreme temperatures change. This work shows that the vegetation change may impact positively some regions like the reforested area by reducing the occurrence of thermal extremes;while other Sahel regions (eastern part of the central Sahel) could suffer from it because of the strengthening of thermal extremes.

Evidence of Long-Term Trend of Visibility in the Sahel and Coevolution with Meteorological Conditions and Vegetation Cover during the Recent Period

In this study, the long term trend of the observed visibility data used directly (without conversion into dust concentrations) over Sahel was investigated between 1957 and 2013. Then, to review the influence of atmospheric factors and land surface conditions on this trend, the coevolution between the visibility and the dust surface mass concentration from MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, the in-situ surface meteorological data (rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed, and air temperature), as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were analyzed from 2000 to 2013. We showed that the horizontal visibility has significantly decreased since the 1970s. The coevolution between the visibility and the dust surface mass concentration revealed that visibility decreased significantly with increments in dust concentrations. Visibility increases with rainfall and relative humidity. It is greater in areas of high vegetation cover than in deforested areas. Visibility is weakly correlated with wind speed and air temperature but generally, wind leads to a decrease in visibility, while warm air temperature is associated with a clearer sky and hence, high visibility. The worst visibility in the dry season results from high dust concentrations due to warm and dry wind conditions and less vegetation cover. Rainfall, relative humidity and vegetation cover are the dominant factors contributing to the decrease of dust loading in the Sahel.

Mean Kinematic Characteristics of Synoptic Easterly Disturbances over the Atlantic

This study investigates the mean kinematic characteristics of the tropical Atlantic easterly disturbances in January-March （JFM）, April-June （AM J）, July-September （JAS） and October-December （OND） from 1968-1998. For each season, the preferential tracks of these disturbances in the 3--10-day band periods were computed and spatialized, as well as their associated wavelength, velocity and main period, which lies between 3-5 days and between 6-9 days depending on the track and the season. Two main tracks are highlighted over the Atlantic Ocean. During OND and JFM these two tracks are well separated and located in each hemisphere around 15°S and 12.5°N. From AMJ to JAS these tracks migrate northward; in JAS, they merge into one over the northern tropical Atlantic along 17.5°N. The associated wavelength fields exhibit a meridional gradient, with large wavelengths （greater than 4000 km） around the equator, between 5°N and 5°S, and smaller wavelengths outside of this latitude band （between 2500-3500 kin）. The phase speed is also found to exhibit poleward decreasing values from 12-6 m s^-1. Over the north Atlantic track, 6-9-day disturbances were found to occur from January to May and approximately from October to December. From June to September, the 3-5-day waves dominate the synoptic activity. Over the south Atlantic track, between May and August the synoptic variability is mainly explained by the 3-5-day disturbances but from January to April and from September to December both 3-5-day waves and 6-9-day waves can occur.

Assessment of Regional Climate Models over Côte D'Ivoire and Analysis of Future Projections over West Africa

The ability of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in AMMA-ENSEMBLES project is assessed over six meteorological stations in C&#244te d’Ivoire. The ensemble mean of the models is also used for the prediction of climate change over West Africa. The study focused on two periods: the period 1995-2005, the present-day simulations, is used to evaluate the skills of the models over the country and the years 2010-2013, for assessment of the future climate change scenario used. The results show that the skills of the models vary from one station to another and from one season to another. None of the models considered, presents an excellent performance over the entire country and in all the seasons. Generally, the ensemble mean of all the models presents better results when compared with the observation. These results suggest that the choice of any model for study over the country may depend on the focus of interest: intensity or variability of the rain and also on area of interest. The projection for 2020-2040, future climate change over West Africa shows that the Sahel exhibits a tendency to be drier while wetter Guinean coast is observed.

Validation of Three Satellite Precipitation Products in Two South-Western African Watersheds: Bandama (Ivory Coast) and Mono (Togo)

Satellite precipitation products are widely used in different domain, in area where there is a lack in observation. These have different spatio-temporal resolutions consequently resulting in different precipitation amounts depending on the product. The present study validates three satellite products, namely the Climate Hazard group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over Bandama and Mono river basins for 1981-2005 and 1981-2016 respectively by comparing them to the observation precipitation of the basin. The available studies are focused on the regional scale but not on a watershed scale for hydrological studies. The analysis reveals that all the products are strongly correlated to each other as well as to the observed data at basin level. The Lamb coefficient test shows that most all the chosen basin namely Bandama and Mono presents the same climatic indices. All the products present the same variability and trend as the observation at basins scale. By comparing those products to observation, CHIRPS product following by GPCP give the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) at annual and seasonal time scales while CHIRPS is followed by CRU at monthly scale. Overall, all products overestimate the precipitation at Bandama basin while they underestimate it over Mono river basin. The comparison over 1981-2017 period of the total annual precipitation increasing southern ward (from Sahel to the coastal zone) for all the three studied products which varies from 300 mm to 2400 mm/year. All the three products are not significantly different from one another and they all highlight the same areas of hotspot rainfall in the region. The same conclusion is made at monthly and seasonal scales. Therefore, any of these products especially CHIRPS can be used for study in this region due to its lowest bias and MAE.