基于大数据的配电网设备画像体系及辅助决策研究与应用

配电网是实现电能供给和能量消费的最终环节,是电力公司提供优质供电服务的最后一站,尤其是分布式能源广泛接入配电网后,配电网馈线和台区数量日益增加,馈线和台区的运行环境和运行特征日益复杂,各类运行管理问题不断凸显。文章重点研究配电网台区和馈线基于多维数据分析的设备状态,构建配电网的全方位设备画像与辅助决策体系,文章研究成果对于深入挖掘配网设备数据资产价值,提升精准分析和辅助决策能力,开展贯穿全业务流程的数据洞察,从源头识别分析和消除问题,具有良好的推广和应用价值。

中国中学生艾滋病文献计量学分析

[目的]通过对我国中学生艾滋病相关文献进行计量学分析,了解其发展现状及特点。[方法 ]采用主题词检索的方式,检索中国期刊全文数据库(CNKI)、维普中文科技期刊数据库(VIP)、万方数据知识服务平台(WANFANG)三大中文数据库,检索时间为2008年1月1日—2018年4月14日。应用NoteExpress3.2、Bicomb2.0和Ucinet 6.0软件对文献进行计量学分析。[结果]共纳入文献529篇,文献年发表量总体呈下降趋势;作者共计1 350名,合著率达68.05%,研究机构疾控中心居多,基金资助文献占28.92%;研究热点主要集中于健康教育、艾滋病相关知识、知晓率、干预。[结论]中国中学生艾滋病文献研究主题有待扩展及深入,应加强人员合作,扩大基金支持覆盖,进一步提高文献质量。

艾滋病“日常接触传播”论引发的舆论争议考察

深入考察1983年艾滋病“日常接触传播”论引发的舆论争议,得以剖析引发这一争议的动因与机制。医学问题向医学社会问题的转向、知识的不确定性以及公众对科学家解决问题的迫切期待构建了艾滋病流行早期特定的情境性因素,推动了舆论争议的出现。突发公共事件出现时,包容科学家的意见观点,接纳科学的不确定性,维护科学信息传播的公共空间,既是科学进步的保障,也是促进科学技术更好发挥公共效益、全社会共同应对危机的必然要求。

艾滋病自我检测研究的历史脉络与前沿

目的应用文献计量方法分析国际艾滋病自我检测研究的文献特征、发展脉络、前沿变化情况,为中国开展相关研究、完善相关策略提供参考。方法应用Citespace5.5R2统计软件对WebofScience核心合集数据库收录的自我检测文献进行可视化分析并加以讨论。结果自我检测的探讨肇始于20世纪末,2010年以来研究数量快速增长,2019年达到120篇,研究团队主要为欧洲、美国的研究机构和研究者。研究发展脉络较为清晰,目前已经形成了技术可行性分析、适用人群研究、策略推广分析等3个方向的研究热点聚类。研究前沿关注于随机对照研究、自我检测推广模式等议题。结论艾滋病自我检测研究正处于快速发展阶段,尚有较充分的研究空间,国内研究团队可以以文献计量结果为参考,在中国艾滋病防治工作的语境中回应研究热点,追踪前沿问题,探索符合中国国情的自我检测策略。

Characteristics of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Women Aged 15-49 Years from 2005 to 2012 in China

Objective To describe the characteristics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in women aged 15-49 years in China. Methods HIV/AIDS cases from 2005 to 2012 that fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified on the Chinese HIV/AIDS case reporting system. Descriptive and spatial analyses were performed. Results A total of 103,559 female HIV/AIDS cases were included in our study. Based on the descriptive analysis, between 2005 and 2012, the proportion of heterosexually acquired HIV infection among women （15-49 years） increased rapidly from 35.8% to 87.4%. Approximately 60% of these cases were infected through non-marital heterosexual contact. Among older women （40-49 years）, a slightly increasing trend was identified. The spatial analysis detected ＇hot spots＇ in the Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Chongqing provinces. The epidemic trends in these areas were predominately driven by heterosexual transmission. Conclusion Non-marital heterosexual contact is a very important factor in the HIV/AIDS epidemic in women aged 15-49 years, and the HIV infection rate in older women is increasing. Several epidemic hot spots were detected in northwestern and southwestern China. Efficient interventions are needed to control the spread of HIV/AIDS among women living in these areas.

Correlates of Condom-use Self-efficacy on the EPPM-based Integrated Model among Chinese College Students

Objective To explore the predictors of condom-use self-efficacy in Chinese college students according to the extended parallel process model （EPPM）-based integrated model. Methods A total of 3,082 college students were anonymously surveyed through self-administered questionnaires in Guangzhou and Harbin, China. A structural equation model was applied to assess the integrated model. Results Among the participants, 2,387 （46.7%） were male, 2,586 （53.3%） were female, and the average age was 18.6 years. The final integrated model was acceptable. Apart from the direct effect （r = 0.23）, perceived severity had two indirect effects on condom-use self-efficacy through the attitude to HIV education （r = 0.40） and intention to engage in premarital sex （r = -0.16）, respectively. However, the perceived susceptibility mediated through the intention to engage in premarital sex （intent-to-premarital-sex） had a poor indirect impact on condom-use self-efficacy （total effect was -0.06）. Furthermore, attitude toward HIV health education （r = 0.49） and intent-to-premarital-sex （r = -0.32） had a strong direct effect on condom-use self-efficacy. In addition, male students perceived higher susceptibility, stronger intent-to-premarital-sex, and lower condom-use self-efficacy than female students. Conclusion The integrated model may be used to assess the determinants of condom-use self-efficacy among Chinese college students. Future research should focus on raising the severity perception, HIV-risk-reduction motivation, and the premarital abstinence intention among college students. Furthermore, considering the gender differences observed in the present survey, single-sex HIV education is required in school-based HIV/sex intervention.

天津市高一学生艾滋病知识与健康教育需求现况调查

目的了解天津市高一学生艾滋病知识知晓率及其相关因素,与艾滋病健康教育需求情况。方法采用横断面调查设计,采用分层整群抽样与方便抽样相结合的方法,选取天津地区高中2所、职业高中1所,对所有高一学生进行匿名调查。问卷内容包括一般人口学特征、艾滋病相关知识、艾滋病健康教育需求信息等条目。结果调查对象共1082人,艾滋病知识知晓率为34.3%(371/1082)。既往接受过艾滋病知识的比例为71.9%(778/1082),既往接受过性健康知识的比例为59.4%(643/1082),2类学校间差异有统计学意义;发生插入性性行为的比例为7.0%(76/1082)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,职业高中(与普通高中相比,OR=0.41,95%CI:0.29~0.59)、无性健康知识需求(与有需求相比,OR=0.62,95%CI:0.43~0.91)、未关注艾滋病宣传材料(与关注相比,OR=0.41,95%CI:0.30~0.56)、不知晓安全性行为(与知晓相比,OR=0.55,95%CI:0.39~0.77)和不知晓正确使用安全套(与知晓相比,OR=0.33,95%CI:0.24~0.46)的调查对象艾滋病知识知晓率较低。结论调查的天津市高一学生艾滋病知识知晓率普遍较低,有的学生发生过插入性性行为。性健康知识对艾滋病知识有显著影响,需加强高中生的性健康教育和艾滋病健康教育工作。

1981-1983年美国艾滋病应对的历史考察及思考

目的考察1981-1983年间美国艾滋病流行初期的疾病应对情况,分析总结该时期疾病应对的进展与特征。方法搜集、查阅该时期相关学术文献、媒体报道、听证会档案、历史著作,加以考据,进行归纳、演绎。结果艾滋病流行早期的应对呈现三方面特征:疾病认知历时良久,临床病例报告发挥关键作用,预防措施面临复杂争议。结论这些特征既反映出疾病认知是逻辑自洽的科学实践活动,也凸显了疾病认定与应对过程中医学、技术与社会的复杂互动,艾滋病防控的历史实践丰富着对疾病的理解,也有助于拓展审视新发传染病的视域,重塑着应对新发传染病的经验。