Long-term Evolution of Solar Activity and Prediction of the Following Solar Cycles

Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems,such as human aerospace activities,satellite communication and navigation,deep space exploration,and related scientific research.Therefore,studying the long-term evolution trend of solar activity and accurately predicting the future solar cycles are highly anticipated.Based on the wavelet transform and empirical function fitting of the longest recorded data of the annual average relative sunspot number(ASN)series of 323 yr to date,this work decisively verifies the existence of the solar century cycles and confirms that its length is about 104.0 yr,and the magnitude has a slightly increasing trend on the timescale of several hundred years.Based on this long-term evolutionary trend,we predict solar cycles 25 and26 by using phase similar prediction methods.As for solar cycle 25,its maximum ASN will be about146.7±33.40,obviously stronger than solar cycle 24.The peak year will occur approximately in 2024,and the period will be about 11±1 yr.As for solar cycle 26,it will start around 2030,and reach its maximum between2035 and 2036,with maximum ASN of about 133.0±3.200,and period of about 10 yr.

Correction of the temperature effect in calibration of a solar radio telescope

This work analyzes the annual fluctuation of the observation data of the Mingantu Solar radio Telescope(MST)in S,C and X bands.It is found that the data vary with local air temperature as the logarithmic attenuation of equipment increases with temperature and frequency.A simplified and effective calibration method is proposed,which is used to calibrate the MST data in 2018-2020,while the correction coefficients are calculated from data in 2018-2019.For S,C and X bands,the root mean square errors of one polarization are 2.7,5.7 and 20 sfu,and the relative errors are 4%,6%and 8%respectively.The calibration of MUSER and SBRS spectra is also performed.The relative errors of MUSER at 1700 MHz,SBRS at 2800 MHz,3050 MHz and 3350 MHz are 8%,8%,11%and 10%respectively.We found that several factors may affect the calibration accuracy,especially at X-band.The method is expected to work for other radio telescopes with similar design.

Diagnosing physical conditions near the flare energy-release sites from observations of solar microwave typeⅢbursts

In the physics of solar flares, it is crucial to diagnose the physical conditions near the flare energy- release sites. However, so far it is unclear how to diagnose these physical conditions. A solar microwave type III burst is believed to be a sensitive signature of primary energy release and electron accelerations in solar flares. This work takes into account the effect of the magnetic field on the plasma density and develops a set of formulas which can be used to estimate the plasma density, temperature, magnetic field near the magnetic reconnection site and particle acceleration region, and the velocity and energy of electron beams. We apply these formulas to three groups of microwave type III pairs in an X-class flare, and obtained some reasonable and interesting results. This method can be applied to other microwave type III bursts to diagnose the physical conditions of source regions, and provide some basic information to understand the intrinsic nature and fundamental processes occurring near the flare energy-release sites.

Observational results of MUSER during 2014–2019

The solar radio signal that can be received by the ground-based telescopes covers a wide frequency range,allowing us to monitor the complex physical processes occurred from the solar surface to the vast interplanetary space.MingantU SpEctral Radioheliograph(MUSER),as the latest generation of solar dedicated radio spectral-imaging instrument in the centimeter-decimeter wavelengths,has accumulated a large number of observational data since its commissioning observation in 2014.This paper presents the main observational results identified by MUSER from 2014 to 2019,including the quiet Sun and 94 solar radio burst events.We find that there are 81 events accompanied with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites(GOES)soft X-ray(SXR)flares,among which the smallest flare class is B1.0.There are 13 events without accompanying any recorded flares,among which the smallest SXR intensity during the radio burst period is equivalent to level-A.The main characteristics of all radio burst events are presented,which shows the powerful ability of MUSER to capture the valuable information of the solar non-thermal processes and the importance for space weather.This work also provides a database for further in-depth research.

Flare evolution and polarization changes in fine structures of solar radio emission in the 2013 April 11 event

The measurement of positions and sizes of radio sources in observations is important for un- derstanding of the flare evolution. For the first time, solar radio spectral fine structures in an M6.5 flare that occurred on 2013 April 11 were observed simultaneously by several radio instruments at four different observatories： Chinese Solar Broadband Radio Spectrometer at Huairou （SBRS/Huairou）, Ondrejov Radio Spectrograph in the Czech Republic （ORSC/Ondrejov）, Badary Broadband Microwave Spectropolarimeter （BMS/Irkutsk）, and spectrograph/IZMIRAN （Moscow, Troitsk）. The fine structures included microwave zebra patterns （ZPs）, fast pulsations and fiber bursts. They were observed during the flare brightening lo- cated at the tops of a loop arcade as shown in images taken by the extreme ultraviolet （EUV） telescope onboard NASA＇s satellite Solar Dynamics Observatory （SDO）. The flare occurred at 06：58-07：26 UT in solar active region NOAA 11719 located close to the solar disk center. ZPs appeared near high frequency boundaries of the pulsations, and their spectra observed in Huairou and Ondrejov agreed with each other in terms of details. At the beginning of the flare＇s impulsive phase, a strong narrowband ZP burst occurred with a moderate left-handed circular polarization. Then a series of pulsations and ZPs were observed in almost unpolarized emission. After 07：00 UT a ZP appeared with a moderate right-handed polarization. In the flare decay phase （at about 07：25 UT）, ZPs and fiber bursts become strongly right-hand polarized. BMS/Irkutsk spectral observations indicated that the background emission showed a left-handed circular polarization （similar to SBRS/Huairou spectra around 3 GHz）. However, the fine structure appeared in the right-handed polarization. The dynamics of the polarization was associated with the motion of the flare ex- citer, which was observed in EUV images at 171 A and 131 A by the SDO Atmospheric Imaging Assembly （AIA）. Combining magnetograms observed by the SDO Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager （HMI） with the homologous assumption of EUV flare brightenings and ZP bursts, we deduced that the observed ZPs correspond to the ordinary radio emission mode. However, future analysis needs to verify the assumption that zebra radio sources are really related to a closed magnetic loop, and are located at lower heights in the solar atmosphere than the source of pulsations.

Energy and spectral analysis of confined solar flares from radio and X-ray observations

The energy and spectral shape of radio bursts may help us understand the generation mechanism of solar eruptions,including solar flares,coronal mass ejections,eruptive filaments,and various scales of jets.The different kinds of flares may have different characteristics of energy and spectral distribution.In this work,we selected 10 mostly confined flare events during October 2014 to investigate their overall spectral behaviour and the energy emitted in microwaves by using radio observations from microwaves to interplanetary radio waves,and X-ray observations of GOES,RHESSI,and Fermi/GBM.We found that:all the confined flare events were associated with a microwave continuum burst extending to frequencies of9.4~15.4 GHz,and the peak frequencies of all confined flare events are higher than 4.995 GHz and lower than or equal to 17 GHz.The median value is around 9 GHz.The microwave burst energy(or nuence)and the peak frequency are found to provide useful criteria to estimate the power of solar flares.The observations imply that the magnetic field in confined flares tends to be stronger than that in 412 flares studied by Nita et al.(2004).All 10 events studied did not produce detectable hard X-rays with energies above~300 keV indicating the lack of efficient acceleration of electrons to high energies in the confined flares.

Magnetic gradient:a natural driver of solar eruptions

It is well-known that a gradient will inevitably drive a flow.For example,a density-gradient may drive a diffusion flow,an electrical potential-gradient may drive an electric current in plasmas,and so on.What flow will be driven when a magnetic-gradient occurs in solar atmospheric plasmas?Considering the ubiquitous distribution of magnetic-gradient in solar plasma loops,this work demonstrates that the magnetic-gradient pumping(MGP)mechanism is valid,even in the partial ionized solar photosphere and chromosphere as well as in the corona.The magnetic gradient drives energetic particle upflows that carry and convey kinetic energy from the underlying atmosphere to move upwards,accumulate around the looptop and increase the temperature and pressure,produce ballooning instabilities,and finally it leads to magnetic reconnections and eruptions around the looptop.This mechanism may explain the formation of the hot cusp-structures that can be observed above flaring loops in most preflare phases;therefore,the magneticgradient should be a natural driver of solar eruptions.Furthermore,we may also apply this mechanism to explain many other astrophysical phenomena,such as the cold of sunspot and the hot above it,the formation of solar plasma jets,type-II spicule,and fast solar wind above coronal holes,and also the fast plasma jets related to white dwarfs,neutron stars and black holes.