The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide.Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19,especially in the early stage of the dis...The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide.Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19,especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak.In this paper,we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19.We derive the control reproduction number R_(C),which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence.Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak,we estimate R_(C)=7:989.Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing R_(C) and disease prevalence.Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission.The testing starting date is also crucial:the earlier testing is implemented,the more impact it has on reducing the infection.The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.展开更多
基金The authors thank the Department of Mathematics at the University of Central Florida,which received funding through the NSF Grant DMS-2132585 to provide support to organize and participate in the“CBMS Conference:Interface of Mathe-matical Biology and linear Algebra"where this research was initiated and developedLN.was partially funded by the Charles Phelps Taft Research Center at the University of Cincinnati,the research of PvdD is partially supported by an NSERC DiscoveryGrant 2016-03677the research ofW.Z.is supported by Simons Foundation,Award Number:714029.
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged global health and national economies worldwide.Testing and isolation are effective control strategies to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19,especially in the early stage of the disease outbreak.In this paper,we develop a deterministic model to investigate the impact of testing and compliance with isolation on the transmission of COVID-19.We derive the control reproduction number R_(C),which gives the threshold for disease elimination or prevalence.Using data from New York State in the early stage of the disease outbreak,we estimate R_(C)=7:989.Both elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that testing and compliance with isolation are significant in reducing R_(C) and disease prevalence.Simulation reveals that only high testing volume combined with a large proportion of individuals complying with isolation have great impact on mitigating the transmission.The testing starting date is also crucial:the earlier testing is implemented,the more impact it has on reducing the infection.The results obtained here would also be helpful in developing guidelines of early control strategies for pandemics similar to COVID-19.
