Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the compo...Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers 71961137012,71874055)National Science Centre,Poland(2018/30/Q/HS4/00764)research support by the Energy,Climate and Environment Program of International Institute for Applied System Analysis(IIASA)within the Young Scientists Summer Program(YSSP).
文摘Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.
