Prediction of Flash Flood Susceptibility of Hilly Terrain Using Deep Neural Network:A Case Study of Vietnam

Flash floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters,especially in hilly terrain,causing loss of life,property,and infrastructures and sudden disruption of traffic.These types of floods are mostly associated with landslides and erosion of roads within a short time.Most of Vietnamis hilly and mountainous;thus,the problem due to flash flood is severe and requires systematic studies to correctly identify flood susceptible areas for proper landuse planning and traffic management.In this study,three Machine Learning(ML)methods namely Deep Learning Neural Network(DL),Correlation-based FeatureWeighted Naive Bayes(CFWNB),and Adaboost(AB-CFWNB)were used for the development of flash flood susceptibility maps for hilly road section(115 km length)of National Highway(NH)-6 inHoa Binh province,Vietnam.In the proposedmodels,88 past flash flood events were used together with 14 flash floods affecting topographical and geo-environmental factors.The performance of themodels was evaluated using standard statisticalmeasures including Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)Curve,Area Under Curve(AUC)and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE).The results revealed that all the models performed well(AUC>0.80)in predicting flash flood susceptibility zones,but the performance of the DL model is the best(AUC:0.972,RMSE:0.352).Therefore,the DL model can be applied to develop an accurate flash flood susceptibility map of hilly terrain which can be used for proper planning and designing of the highways and other infrastructure facilities besides landuse management of the area.

Improved flood susceptibility mapping using a best first decision tree integrated with ensemble learning techniques

Improving the accuracy of flood prediction and mapping is crucial for reducing damage resulting from flood events.In this study,we proposed and validated three ensemble models based on the Best First Decision Tree(BFT)and the Bagging(Bagging-BFT),Decorate(Bagging-BFT),and Random Subspace(RSS-BFT)ensemble learning techniques for an improved prediction of flood susceptibility in a spatially-explicit manner.A total number of 126 historical flood events from the Nghe An Province(Vietnam)were connected to a set of 10 flood influencing factors(slope,elevation,aspect,curvature,river density,distance from rivers,flow direction,geology,soil,and land use)for generating the training and validation datasets.The models were validated via several performance metrics that demonstrated the capability of all three ensemble models in elucidating the underlying pattern of flood occurrences within the research area and predicting the probability of future flood events.Based on the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve(AUC),the ensemble Decorate-BFT model that achieved an AUC value of 0.989 was identified as the superior model over the RSS-BFT(AUC=0.982)and Bagging-BFT(AUC=0.967)models.A comparison between the performance of the models and the models previously reported in the literature confirmed that our ensemble models provided a reliable estimate of flood susceptibilities and their resulting susceptibility maps are trustful for flood early warning systems as well as development of mitigation plans.

Locally weighted learning based hybrid intelligence models for groundwater potential mapping and modeling: A case study at Gia Lai province, Vietnam

The groundwater potential map is an important tool for a sustainable water management and land use planning,particularly for agricultural countries like Vietnam.In this article,we proposed new machine learning ensemble techniques namely AdaBoost ensemble(ABLWL),Bagging ensemble(BLWL),Multi Boost ensemble(MBLWL),Rotation Forest ensemble(RFLWL)with Locally Weighted Learning(LWL)algorithm as a base classifier to build the groundwater potential map of Gia Lai province in Vietnam.For this study,eleven conditioning factors(aspect,altitude,curvature,slope,Stream Transport Index(STI),Topographic Wetness Index(TWI),soil,geology,river density,rainfall,land-use)and 134 wells yield data was used to create training(70%)and testing(30%)datasets for the development and validation of the models.Several statistical indices were used namely Positive Predictive Value(PPV),Negative Predictive Value(NPV),Sensitivity(SST),Specificity(SPF),Accuracy(ACC),Kappa,and Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC)curve to validate and compare performance of models.Results show that performance of all the models is good to very good(AUC:0.75 to 0.829)but the ABLWL model with AUC=0.89 is the best.All the models applied in this study can support decision-makers to streamline the management of the groundwater and to develop economy not only of specific territories but also in other regions across the world with minor changes of the input parameters.

Flash flood susceptibility mapping using a novel deep learning model based on deep belief network,back propagation and genetic algorithm

Flash floods are responsible for loss of life and considerable property damage in many countries.Flood susceptibility maps contribute to flood risk reduction in areas that are prone to this hazard if appropriately used by landuse planners and emergency managers.The main objective of this study is to prepare an accurate flood susceptibility map for the Haraz watershed in Iran using a novel modeling approach(DBPGA)based on Deep Belief Network(DBN)with Back Propagation(BP)algorithm optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA).For this task,a database comprising ten conditioning factors and 194 flood locations was created using the One-R Attribute Evaluation(ORAE)technique.Various well-known machine learning and optimization algorithms were used as benchmarks to compare the prediction accuracy of the proposed model.Statistical metrics include sensitivity,specificity accuracy,root mean square error(RMSE),and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve(AUC)were used to assess the validity of the proposed model.The result shows that the proposed model has the highest goodness-of-fit(AUC=0.989)and prediction accuracy(AUC=0.985),and based on the validation dataset it outperforms benchmark models including LR(0.885),LMT(0.934),BLR(0.936),ADT(0.976),NBT(0.974),REPTree(0.811),ANFIS-BAT(0.944),ANFIS-CA(0.921),ANFIS-IWO(0.939),ANFIS-ICA(0.947),and ANFIS-FA(0.917).We conclude that the DBPGA model is an excellent alternative tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility for other regions prone to flash floods.

Using Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Model to Forecast Coronavirus Outbreak

The Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak was rst discovered in Wuhan,China,and it has since spread to more than 200 countries.The World Health Organization proclaimed COVID-19 a public health emergency of international concern on January 30,2020.Normally,a quickly spreading infection that could jeopardize the well-being of countless individuals requires prompt action to forestall the malady in a timely manner.COVID19 is a major threat worldwide due to its ability to rapidly spread.No vaccines are yet available for COVID-19.The objective of this paper is to examine the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic,specically studying Hubei Province,China;Taiwan;South Korea;Japan;and Italy,in terms of exposed,infected,recovered/deceased,original conrmed cases,and predict conrmed cases in specic countries by using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to predict the future outbreak of COVID-19.We applied four differential equations to calculate the number of conrmed cases in each country,plotted them on a graph,and then applied polynomial regression with the logic of multiple linear regression to predict the further spread of the pandemic.We also compared the calculated and predicted cases of conrmed population and plotted them in the graph,where we could see that the lines of calculated and predicted cases do intersect with each other to give the perfect true results for the future spread of the virus.This study considered the cases from 22 January 2020 to 25 April 2020.

Hybridization of Differential Evolution and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference Systemin Estimation of Compression Coefficient of Plastic Clay Soil

One of the important geotechnical parameters required for designing of the civil engineering structure is the compressibility of the soil.In this study,the main purpose is to develop a novel hybrid Machine Learning(ML)model(ANFIS-DE),which used Differential Evolution(DE)algorithm to optimize the predictive capability of Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS),for estimating soil Compression coefficient(Cc)from other geotechnical parameters namelyWater Content,Void Ratio,SpecificGravity,Liquid Limit,Plastic Limit,Clay content and Depth of Soil Samples.Validation of the predictive capability of the novel model was carried out using statistical indices:Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and Correlation Coefficient(R).In addition,two popular ML models namely Reduced Error Pruning Trees(REPTree)and Decision Stump(Dstump)were used for comparison.Results showed that the performance of the novel model ANFIS-DE is the best(R=0.825,MAE=0.064 and RMSE=0.094)in comparison to other models such as REPTree(R=0.7802,MAE=0.068 and RMSE=0.0988)andDstump(R=0.7325,MAE=0.0785 and RMSE=0.1036).Therefore,the ANFIS-DE model can be used as a promising tool for the correct and quick estimation of the soil Cc,which can be employed in the design and construction of civil engineering structures.

Novel Time Series Bagging Based Hybrid Models for Predicting Historical Water Levels in the Mekong Delta Region, Vietnam

Water level predictions in the river,lake and delta play an important role in flood management.Every year Mekong River delta of Vietnam is experiencing flood due to heavy monsoon rains and high tides.Land subsidence may also aggravate flooding problems in this area.Therefore,accurate predictions of water levels in this region are very important to forewarn the people and authorities for taking timely adequate remedial measures to prevent losses of life and property.There are so many methods available to predict the water levels based on historical data but nowadays Machine Learning(ML)methods are considered the best tool for accurate prediction.In this study,we have used surface water level data of 18 water level measurement stations of the Mekong River delta from 2000 to 2018 to build novel time-series Bagging based hybrid ML models namely:Bagging(RF),Bagging(SOM)and Bagging(M5P)to predict historical water levels in the study area.Performances of the Bagging-based hybrid models were compared with Reduced Error Pruning Trees(REPT),which is a benchmark ML model.The data of 19 years period was divided into 70:30 ratio for the modeling.The data of the period 1/2000 to 5/2013(which is about 70%of total data)was used for the training and for the period 5/2013 to 12/2018(which is about 30%of total data)was used for testing(validating)the models.Performance of the models was evaluated using standard statistical measures:Coefficient of Determination(R2),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE).Results show that the performance of all the developed models is good(R2>0.9)for the prediction of water levels in the study area.However,the Bagging-based hybrid models are slightly better than another model such as REPT.Thus,these Bagging-based hybrid time series models can be used for predicting water levels at Mekong data.

Prediction of falling weight deflectometer parameters using hybrid model of genetic algorithm and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

A falling weight deflectometer is a testing device used in civil engineering to measure and evaluate the physical properties of pavements,such as the modulus of the subgrade reaction(Y1)and the elastic modulus of the slab(Y2),which are crucial for assessing the structural strength of pavements.In this study,we developed a novel hybrid artificial intelligence model,i.e.,a genetic algorithm(GA)-optimized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system(ANFIS-GA),to predict Y1 and Y2 based on easily determined 13 parameters of rigid pavements.The performance of the novel ANFIS-GA model was compared to that of other benchmark models,namely logistic regression(LR)and radial basis function regression(RBFR)algorithms.These models were validated using standard statistical measures,namely,the coefficient of correlation(R),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE).The results indicated that the ANFIS-GA model was the best at predicting Y1(R=0.945)and Y2(R=0.887)compared to the LR and RBFR models.Therefore,the ANFIS-GA model can be used to accurately predict Y1 and Y2 based on easily measured parameters for the appropriate and rapid assessment of the quality and strength of pavements.

Spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides using hybrid integration approach of Least-Squares Support Vector Machines and differential evolution optimization:a case study in Central Vietnam

This study represents a hybrid intelligence approach based on the differential evolution optimization and Least-Squares Support Vector Machines for shallow landslide prediction,named as DE-LSSVMSLP.The LSSVM is used to establish a landslide prediction model whereas the DE is adopted to search the optimal tuning parameters of the LSSVM model.In this research,a GIS database with 129 historical landslide records in the Quy Hop area(Central Vietnam)has been collected to establish the hybrid model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and area under the curve(AUC)were used to assess the performance of the newly constructed model.Experimental results show that the proposed model has high performances with approximately 82%of AUCs on both training and validating datasets.The model’s results were compared with those obtained from other methods,Support Vector Machines,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks,and J48 Decision Trees.The result comparison demonstrates that the DE-LSSVMSLP deems best suited for the dataset at hand;therefore,the proposed model can be a promising tool for spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides for the study area.

Novel hybrid models of ANFIS and metaheuristic optimizations (SCE and ABC) for prediction of compressive strength of concrete using rebound hammer field test

In this study,we developed novel hybrid models namely Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS)optimized by Shuffled Complex Evolution(SCE)on the one hand and ANFIS with Artificial Bee Colony(ABC)on the other hand.These were used to predict compressive strength(Cs)of concrete relating to thirteen concrete-strength affecting parameters which are easy to determine in the laboratory.Field and laboratory tests data of 108 structural elements of 18 concrete bridges of the Ha Long-Van Don Expressway,Vietnam were considered.The dataset was randomly divided into a 70:30 ratio,for training(70%)and testing(30%)of the hybrid models.Performance of the developed fuzzy metaheuristic models was evaluated using standard statistical metrics:Correlation Coefficient(R),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE).The results showed that both of the novel models depict close agreement between experimental and predicted results.However,the ANFIS-ABC model reflected better convergence of the results and better performance compared to that of ANFIS-SCE in the prediction of the concrete Cs.Thus,the ANFIS-ABC model can be used for the quick and accurate estimation of compressive strength of concrete based on easily determined parameters for the design of civil engineering structures including bridges.

Dimensionality reduction and prediction of soil consolidation coefficient using random forest coupling with Relief algorithm

The consolidation coefficient of soil(C_(v))is a crucial parameter used for the design of structures leaned on soft soi.In general,the C_(v) is determined experimentally in the laboratory.However,the experimental tests are time-consuming as well as expensive.Therefore,researchers tried several ways to determine C_(v) via other simple soil parameters.In this study,we developed a hybrid model of Random Forest coupling with a Relief algorithm(RF-RL)to predict the C_(v) of soil.To conduct this study,a database of soil parameters collected from a case study region in Vietnam was used for modeling.The performance of the proposed models was assessed via statistical indicators,namely Coefficient of determination(R^(2)),Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE),and Mean Absolute Error(MAE).The proposal models were constructed with four sets of soil variables,including 6,7,8,and 13 inputs.The results revealed that all models performed well with a high performance(R^(2)>0.980).Although the RF-RL model with 13 variables has the highest prediction accuracy(R^(2)=0.9869),the difference compared with other models was negligible(i.e.,R^(2)=0.9824,0.9850,0.9825 for the cases with 6,7,8 inputs,respectively).Thus,it can be concluded that the hybrid model of RF-RL can be employed to predict C_(v) based on the basic soil parameters.

A hybrid machine learning model to estimate self-compacting concrete compressive strength

This study examined the feasibility of using the grey wolf optimizer(GWO)and artificial neural network(ANN)to predict the compressive strength(CS)of self-compacting concrete(SCC).The ANN-GWO model was created using 115 samples from different sources,taking into account nine key SCC factors.The validation of the proposed model was evaluated via six indices,including correlation coefficient(R),mean squared error,mean absolute error(MAE),IA,Slope,and mean absolute percentage error.In addition,the importance of the parameters affecting the CS of SCC was investigated utilizing partial dependence plots.The results proved that the proposed ANN-GWO algorithm is a reliable predictor for SCC’s CS.Following that,an examination of the parameters impacting the CS of SCC was provided.

Ensemble machine learning models based on Reduced Error Pruning Tree for prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

In this paper,we developed highly accurate ensemble machine learning models integrating Reduced Error Pruning Tree(REPT)as a base classifier with the Bagging(B),Decorate(D),and Random Subspace(RSS)ensemble learning techniques for spatial prediction of rainfallinduced landslides in the Uttarkashi district,located in the Himalayan range,India.To do so,a total of 103 historical landslide events were linked to twelve conditioning factors for generating training and validation datasets.Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve(AUC)were used to evaluate the training and validation performances of the models.The results showed that the single REPT model and its derived ensembles provided a satisfactory accuracy for the prediction of landslides.The D-REPT model with RMSE=0.351 and AUC=0.907 was identified as the most accurate model,followed by RSS-REPT(RMSE=0.353 and AUC=0.898),B-REPT(RMSE=0.396 and AUC=0.876),and the single REPT model(RMSE=0.398 and AUC=0.836),respectively.The prominent ensemble models proposed and verified in this study provide engineers and modelers with insights for development of more advanced predictive models for different landslide-susceptible areas around the world.