Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were us...Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied.展开更多
Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional...Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.展开更多
This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional M...This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.展开更多
Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteris...Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteristics related to these features,16 WSTR events that occurred in 2013-2017 were examined with another 16 squall line(SL)events occurred during the same period as references.Composite analysis derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data indicated the importance of the deep layer of warm and moist air for WSTR events.The most significant difference between WSTR and SL events lies in their low-level convergence and lifting;for WSTR events,the low-level convergence and lifting is much shallower with comparable or stronger intensity.The trumpet-shaped topography to the north of the WSTR centers is favorable for the development of such shallow convergences in WSTR events.Results in this study will provide references for future studies to improve the predictability of WSTR.展开更多
Vires infection and subsequent myocardial damage and repairing were regarded as important aspects in the pathogenesis of dilated cardiomyopathy. Enterovirus and its association with myocarditis and dilated cardiomyopa...Vires infection and subsequent myocardial damage and repairing were regarded as important aspects in the pathogenesis of dilated cardiomyopathy. Enterovirus and its association with myocarditis and dilated cardiomyopathy have been investigated extensively. Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy （ARVC） is a relatively uncommon kind of cardiomyopathy which could cause malignant arrhythmia and sudden death in human. Although some ARVC patients have family history and some gene defects were found to be associated with ARVC, enterovims genome was shown in endomyocardial samples from the patients with ARVC and it suggested possible association between ARVC and vires infective myocarditis. Here, we present an electron microscopic evidence for a flaviviral infection of myocytes from a case of ARVC.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41375025, 41275114, and 41275039)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, 2012AA120903)+1 种基金the Public Benefit Research Foundation of the China Meteorological Administration (GYHY201106044 and GYHY201406001)the China Meteorological Administration Torrential Flood Project
文摘Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied.
基金supported by The National Basic Research Program of China(973)(Grant No.2013CB430106)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375108)Scientific Research&Innovation Projects for Academic Degree students of ordinary Universities of Jiangsu(Grant No.CXLX13_474)
文摘Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506901)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41505084)Program of Science and Technology Department of Guangdong Province (201804020038)。
文摘This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1507402)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875168,U1811464)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou(201605131033247)。
文摘Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteristics related to these features,16 WSTR events that occurred in 2013-2017 were examined with another 16 squall line(SL)events occurred during the same period as references.Composite analysis derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data indicated the importance of the deep layer of warm and moist air for WSTR events.The most significant difference between WSTR and SL events lies in their low-level convergence and lifting;for WSTR events,the low-level convergence and lifting is much shallower with comparable or stronger intensity.The trumpet-shaped topography to the north of the WSTR centers is favorable for the development of such shallow convergences in WSTR events.Results in this study will provide references for future studies to improve the predictability of WSTR.
文摘Vires infection and subsequent myocardial damage and repairing were regarded as important aspects in the pathogenesis of dilated cardiomyopathy. Enterovirus and its association with myocarditis and dilated cardiomyopathy have been investigated extensively. Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy （ARVC） is a relatively uncommon kind of cardiomyopathy which could cause malignant arrhythmia and sudden death in human. Although some ARVC patients have family history and some gene defects were found to be associated with ARVC, enterovims genome was shown in endomyocardial samples from the patients with ARVC and it suggested possible association between ARVC and vires infective myocarditis. Here, we present an electron microscopic evidence for a flaviviral infection of myocytes from a case of ARVC.
