Urgency and Necessity on Adjustment of China’s Current Agricultural Structure Based on the Stability and Developmental Trend Analyses of Pork Yield in China

With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates would be a good choice for China in the future.

China’s new problems of food security revealed by the Food Equivalent Unit

China's food security has a great influence on the world,and has always been the top priority in China.In recent years,as the concept of food security is evolving into one of nutrition security and the importance of food diversity is increasing,research based on nutrition security and broad food systems are increasingly needed in today’s China.Thus,not only grain for human consumption,but also animal foods have been integrated into the Food Equivalent,which is used to analyze China’s current agriculture system and reveal the water resource distribution.The results indicated that the average animal food consumption has risen by 78.6%,and now China’s daily supply of animal food per capita has reached about 50%of that in the USA and 80%of that in the South Korea.So there exist an obvious disparity in animal food supply between China and these two countries.It is impossible for the China’s current agricultural system to achieve the level in the USA.Under China’s current agricultural system,the consumption proportion of feed grain had surpassed the consumption of food grain,increased sharply from 33%in 1992 to 67%in 2011.However,the growth potential of total grain output is approaching an upper limit,so the continued growth of feed grain demand exerts great pressure on the China’s food supply.The discordance of the spatial distribution of water resource and virtual water revealed that China’s current agriculture system had a low efficiency in being able to achieve food and nutrition security.China’s current“grain farming”cannot meet the demand of increasing nutrition and appropriate resource utilization.The implementation of grassland agriculture appears feasible and necessary for saving feed grain,providing a large number of high-quality animal foods and appropriate water resource utilization.