Models for predicting hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion in response to interferon-α in chronic hepatitis B patients

AIM:To develop models to predict hepatitis B e antigen(HBe Ag)seroconversion in response to interferon(IFN)-αtreatment in chronic hepatitis B patients.METHODS:We enrolled 147 treatment-nave HBe Agpositive chronic hepatitis B patients in China and analyzed variables after initiating IFN-α1b treatment.Patients were tested for serum alanine aminotransferase(ALT),hepatitis B virus-DNA,hepatitis B surface antigen(HBs Ag),antibody to hepatitis B surface antigen,HBe Ag,antibody to hepatitis B e antigen(anti-HBe),and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen(anti-HBc)at baseline and 12 wk,24 wk,and 52 wk after initiating treatment.We performed univariate analysis to identify response predictors among the variables.Multivariate models to predict treatment response were constructed at baseline,12 wk,and 24 wk.RESULTS:At baseline,the 3 factors correlating most with HBe Ag seroconversion were serum ALT level>4×the upper limit of normal(ULN),HBe Ag≤500 S/CO,and anti-HBc>11.4 S/CO.At 12 wk,the 3 factors most associated with HBe Ag seroconversion were HBe Ag level≤250 S/CO,decline in HBe Ag>1 log10 S/CO,and anti-HBc>11.8 S/CO.At 24 wk,the 3 factors most associated with HBe Ag seroconversion were HBe Ag level≤5 S/CO,anti-HBc>11.4 S/CO,and decline in HBe Ag>2 log10 S/CO.Each variable was assigned a score of1,a score of 0 was given if patients did not have any of the 3 variables.The 3 factors most strongly correlating with HBe Ag seroconversion at each time point were used to build models to predict the outcome after IFN-αtreatment.When the score was 3,the response rates at the 3 time points were 57.7%,83.3%,and 84.0%,respectively.When the score was 0,the response rates were 2.9%,0.0%,and 2.1%,respectively.CONCLUSION:Models with good negative and positive predictive values were developed to calculate the probability of response to IFN-αtherapy.