Economics,fundamentals,technology,finance,speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices:an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.

Muon anomalous Muon anomalous Muon anomalous magnetic dipole moment in theμνSSM

Recently,the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab measured the muon anomalous magnetic dipole moment(MDM),aμ=(gμ-2)/2,and reported that the new experimental average increases the difference between the experiment and the standard model(SM)prediction to 4.2σ.In this work,we reanalyze the muon anomalous MDM at the two-loop level in theμfrom theνSupersymmetric Standard Model(μνSSM)combined with the updated experimental average.TheμνSSM can explain the current difference between the experimental measurement and the SM theoretical prediction for the muon anomalous MDM,constrained by the 125 GeV Higgs boson mass and decays,the rare decayˉB→Xsγ,and so on.We also investigate the anomalous MDM of the electron and tau lepton,ae=(ge-2)/2 and aτ=(gτ-2)/2,at the two-loop level in theμνSSM.In addition,the decaying of the 125 GeV Higgs boson into a pair of charged leptons in theμνSSM is analyzed.