This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research primarily since 2018 as part of the World Meteorological Organization&#...This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research primarily since 2018 as part of the World Meteorological Organization's 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones.A more complete understanding of tropical cyclone outer wind and precipitation is key to anticipating storm intensification and the scale and magnitude of landfalling hazards.We first discuss the relevance of tropical cyclone outer size and structure,improvements in our understanding of its life cycle and inter-basin variability,and the processes that impact outer size changes.We next focus on current forecasting practices and differences among warning centers,recent advances in operational forecasting,and new observations of the storm outer wind field.We also summarize recent research on projected tropical cyclone outer size and structure changes by the late 21st century.Finally,we discuss recommendations for the future of tropical cyclone outer size forecasting and research.展开更多
基金supported by funding from NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAAUniversity of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement#NA21OAR4320204U.S.Department of Commerce,and NSF AGS#2028151+5 种基金Daniel Chavas is supported by NSF AGS#1945113.Kelvin T.F.Chan was jointly supported by the National Science Foundation,United States,National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFC1510400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975052)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010741)the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai311021001)the Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025).
文摘This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research primarily since 2018 as part of the World Meteorological Organization's 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones.A more complete understanding of tropical cyclone outer wind and precipitation is key to anticipating storm intensification and the scale and magnitude of landfalling hazards.We first discuss the relevance of tropical cyclone outer size and structure,improvements in our understanding of its life cycle and inter-basin variability,and the processes that impact outer size changes.We next focus on current forecasting practices and differences among warning centers,recent advances in operational forecasting,and new observations of the storm outer wind field.We also summarize recent research on projected tropical cyclone outer size and structure changes by the late 21st century.Finally,we discuss recommendations for the future of tropical cyclone outer size forecasting and research.
