This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack ...This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack propagation in fuselage panels where the model parameters are unknown and the crack propagation is affected by different types of uncertainties. The coupled method is composed of two steps. The first step employs EKF to estimate the unknown model parameters and the current damage state. In the second step, the proposed efficient linearization method is applied to compute analytically the statistical distribution of the damage evolution path in some future time. A numerical case study is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the coupled EKF-linearization method provides satisfactory results: the EKF algorithm well identifies the model parameters, and the linearization method gives comparable prediction results to Monte Carlo(MC) method while leading to very significant computational cost saving. The proposed prognostics method for fatigue crack growth can be used for developing predictive maintenance strategy for an aircraft fleet, in which case, the computational cost saving is significantly meaningful.展开更多
Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next...Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next scheduled maintenance stop.With progress in sensor technology and data processing techniques,structural health monitoring（SHM） systems are increasingly being considered in the aviation industry.SHM systems track the aircraft health state continuously,leading to the possibility of planning maintenance based on an actual state of aircraft rather than on a fixed schedule.This paper builds upon a model-based prognostics framework that the authors developed in their previous work,which couples the Extended Kalman filter（EKF） with a firstorder perturbation（FOP） method.By using the information given by this prognostics method,a novel cost driven predictive maintenance（CDPM） policy is proposed,which ensures the aircraft safety while minimizing the maintenance cost.The proposed policy is formally derived based on the trade-off between probabilities of occurrence of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance.A numerical case study simulating the maintenance process of an entire fleet of aircrafts is implemented.Under the condition of assuring the same safety level,the CDPM is compared in terms of cost with two other maintenance policies：scheduled maintenance and threshold based SHM maintenance.The comparison results show CDPM could lead to significant cost savings.展开更多
基金partially funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51805262)
文摘This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter(EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack propagation in fuselage panels where the model parameters are unknown and the crack propagation is affected by different types of uncertainties. The coupled method is composed of two steps. The first step employs EKF to estimate the unknown model parameters and the current damage state. In the second step, the proposed efficient linearization method is applied to compute analytically the statistical distribution of the damage evolution path in some future time. A numerical case study is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the coupled EKF-linearization method provides satisfactory results: the EKF algorithm well identifies the model parameters, and the linearization method gives comparable prediction results to Monte Carlo(MC) method while leading to very significant computational cost saving. The proposed prognostics method for fatigue crack growth can be used for developing predictive maintenance strategy for an aircraft fleet, in which case, the computational cost saving is significantly meaningful.
基金supported by UT-INSA Program(2013)the support of the China Scholarship Council(CSC)
文摘Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next scheduled maintenance stop.With progress in sensor technology and data processing techniques,structural health monitoring（SHM） systems are increasingly being considered in the aviation industry.SHM systems track the aircraft health state continuously,leading to the possibility of planning maintenance based on an actual state of aircraft rather than on a fixed schedule.This paper builds upon a model-based prognostics framework that the authors developed in their previous work,which couples the Extended Kalman filter（EKF） with a firstorder perturbation（FOP） method.By using the information given by this prognostics method,a novel cost driven predictive maintenance（CDPM） policy is proposed,which ensures the aircraft safety while minimizing the maintenance cost.The proposed policy is formally derived based on the trade-off between probabilities of occurrence of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance.A numerical case study simulating the maintenance process of an entire fleet of aircrafts is implemented.Under the condition of assuring the same safety level,the CDPM is compared in terms of cost with two other maintenance policies：scheduled maintenance and threshold based SHM maintenance.The comparison results show CDPM could lead to significant cost savings.
