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反倾销嵌入全球生产网络的级联效应仿真研究
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作者 乔小勇 吴晓雪 +3 位作者 薛蕊 claude baron 沈煌南 赵乔 《管理科学学报》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第8期1-22,共22页
本研究将复杂网络理论应用于投入产出模型并将其引入宏观经济学生产函数理论模型,对反倾销嵌入全球生产网络的内在机理与其产生的级联效应展开探讨与仿真模拟分析.研究发现:基于网络视角与投入产出关系,反倾销冲击对中间产品的贸易抑制... 本研究将复杂网络理论应用于投入产出模型并将其引入宏观经济学生产函数理论模型,对反倾销嵌入全球生产网络的内在机理与其产生的级联效应展开探讨与仿真模拟分析.研究发现:基于网络视角与投入产出关系,反倾销冲击对中间产品的贸易抑制作用要明显大于最终产品,多次跨境的中间品将会累积增加反倾销带来的贸易成本;反倾销带来的行业引致需求量降低与出口贸易受到抑制以及行业与国家总产出水平的波动等影响,会沿着以中间品贸易为基础的全球生产网络中的投入产出关系进行传播,从而产生显著的级联效应,并且该效应会随着不同国家-部门节点之间的联系紧密程度(贸易量)的降低而衰减;反倾销产生的级联效应不仅涉及全球生产网络中直接关联节点即涉案国(调查国与被调查国)的国内上下游行业,而且波及间接关联节点即非涉案国的第三方国家和地区,进而影响全球多边贸易发展,同时,级联效应也阻碍了网络节点参与全球价值链生产分工,导致了节点隶属国(地区)的国内价值链被拉长;反倾销嵌入全球生产网络后,会通过整个生产网络产生总量波动效应,从而改变全球生产网络的拓扑结构,即全球生产网络变的相对稀疏、节点间网络距离拉长等. 展开更多
关键词 反倾销 贸易摩擦 政策冲击 全球生产网络 级联效应
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Using Leading Indicators to Improve Project Performance Measurement
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作者 Li Zheng claude baron +3 位作者 Philippe Esteban Rui Xue Qiang Zhang Shanlin Yang 《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2019年第5期529-554,共26页
Project performance measurement offers a wide range of methods to help project managers monitor projects.However,several critical issues remain in project performance measurement,such as an unbalanced use of indicator... Project performance measurement offers a wide range of methods to help project managers monitor projects.However,several critical issues remain in project performance measurement,such as an unbalanced use of indicators due to a lack of prediction-based (leading) indicators with regard to outcome-based (lagging) indicators.For its part,systems engineering measurement,although a more recent discipline,offers a wide variety of indicators,including a set of leading indicators.As our objective is to increase project performance and success rates,this involves improving project performance measurement on which project management decisions are based.This purpose,the proposal put forward in this paper is to extend the number and type of indicators used in project performance measurement by adapting the leading indicators defined in systems engineering measurement.The methodology involves first mapping the systems engineering indicators with the project management activities,resulting in identification of a set of potentially useful indicators for measuring the different activities,then tailoring a selection of these indicators with project-specific data to define a set of the most relevant indicators for a given project.This methodology is illustrated by means of a case study in a manufacturing company. 展开更多
关键词 PROJECT performance MEASUREMENT systems ENGINEERING MEASUREMENT LEADING INDICATORS lagging INDICATORS
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