The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identi...The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.展开更多
The study on relationship between eco-geographic environment （EGE） and regional development （RD） is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the comprehensive study on nature and human factors and regi...The study on relationship between eco-geographic environment （EGE） and regional development （RD） is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the comprehensive study on nature and human factors and regional coordination development. Based on the evaluation index system and models of EGE and RD, Quadrant Analysis Method （QAM） and the Coordination Degree and Coordinated Development Degree Model （CDCDDM） were applied to studying the relationship between EGE and RD in Xinjiang in this paper. The results show that Xinjiang can be divided into four type regions according to the relationship between EGE and RD, namely high coordination region （HCR）, overloading development region （ODR）, low coordination region （LCR） and potential development region （PDR）. Most areas of Xinjiang belong to LCR which can not bear a larger population and support large-scale economic development. HCR, ODR and PDR, which are mainly distributed in piedmont oases and take basin as unit, should be focused on in the development of Xinjiang. The EGE has great influence on RE）, and there is serious contradiction between them. Relevant suggestions on development strategies were put forward according to the character of different type regions, and the key regions of macro-layout of RD in Xinjiang were pointed out.展开更多
Based on the pollen data obtained from thirty-five surface soil samples and investigated vegetation data from seven plant quadrats,the quantitative relationship between surface soil pollen and modern vegetation are st...Based on the pollen data obtained from thirty-five surface soil samples and investigated vegetation data from seven plant quadrats,the quantitative relationship between surface soil pollen and modern vegetation are studied in the longitudinal range-gorge region (LRGR) in Southwestern China.R-values (referring to pollen assemblages) are calculated with pollen percentage and plant abundance.The coefficients of similarity between pollen and vegetation are analyzed.The results show that the pollen assemblages on surface soil of all vegetation zones can basically represent the native vegetation,but the pollen assemblages are not fully according with the vegetation.This is due to the influencing factors including pollen preservation ability,pollen production,amount of exotic pollen and pollen identification.The pollen representation in surface soil is different in families and genera.The pollen of woody plants such as Pinus,Tsuga,Alnus,Fagus and Castanopsis are over-representative,but those of Quercus,Carpinus Myrica,Elaeocarpaceae,Ericaceae,Theaceae and Llex are underrepresentative;the pollen of herbaceous plants such as Artemisia and Rubiaceae are over-representative,while those of others including Gramineae and Araliaceae are under-representative.The R-values of the same taxon pollen in different vegetation zones are different,depending on their distances from the pollen sources.The coefficients of the similarity between plant communities and pollen assemblages are mostly over 70%,which indicate again that the surface soil pollen and spores assemblages can represent the vegetation.It is concluded that there is a good corresponding relationship between surface pollen assemblages and native vegetation in LRGR,and it is of great significance for reconstructing the past vegetation and paleoclimate using quantitative fossil pollen data in this region.展开更多
Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, fiv...Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.展开更多
Grassland ecosystem is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle system. Clear comprehension of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage and potential of grasslands is very important for the effective managemen...Grassland ecosystem is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle system. Clear comprehension of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage and potential of grasslands is very important for the effective management of grassland ecosystems. Grasslands in Inner Mongolia have undergone evident impacts from human activities and natural factors in recent decades. To explore the changes of carbon sequestration capacity of grasslands from 2000 to 2012, we carried out studies on the estimation of SOC storage and potential of grasslands in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, China based on field investigations and MODIS image data. First, we calculated vegetation cover using the dimidiate pixel model based on MODIS-EVI images. Following field investigations of aboveground biomass and plant height, we used a grassland quality evaluation model to get the grassland evaluation index, which is typically used to represent grassland quality. Second, a correlation regression model was established between grassland evaluation index and SOC density. Finally, by this regression model, we calculated the SOC storage and potential of the studied grasslands. Results indicated that SOC storage increased with fluctuations in the study area, and the annual changes varied among different sub-regions. The SOC storage of grasslands in 2012 increased by 0.51×1012 kg C compared to that in 2000. The average carbon sequestration rate was 0.04×1012 kg C/a. The slope of the values of SOC storage showed that SOC storage exhibited an overall increase since 2000, particularly for the grasslands of Hulun Buir city and Xilin Gol League, where the typical grassland type was mainly distributed. Taking the SOC storage under the best grassland quality between 2000 and 2012 as a reference, this study predicted that the SOC potential of grasslands in central and eastern Inner Mongolia in 2012 is 1.38×1012 kg C. This study will contribute to researches on related methods and fundamental database, as well as provide a reference for the protection of grassland ecosystems and the formulation of local policies on sustainable grassland development.展开更多
Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and i...Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.展开更多
Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity（NPP） dynamics of China＇s potential vegetation in the past 55 years（1961–2015） and...Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity（NPP） dynamics of China＇s potential vegetation in the past 55 years（1961–2015） and in the future 35 years（2016–2050）. Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Science & Technology Pillar Program During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period (No 2006BAD20B05)
文摘The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-322-5)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 407101009)
文摘The study on relationship between eco-geographic environment （EGE） and regional development （RD） is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the comprehensive study on nature and human factors and regional coordination development. Based on the evaluation index system and models of EGE and RD, Quadrant Analysis Method （QAM） and the Coordination Degree and Coordinated Development Degree Model （CDCDDM） were applied to studying the relationship between EGE and RD in Xinjiang in this paper. The results show that Xinjiang can be divided into four type regions according to the relationship between EGE and RD, namely high coordination region （HCR）, overloading development region （ODR）, low coordination region （LCR） and potential development region （PDR）. Most areas of Xinjiang belong to LCR which can not bear a larger population and support large-scale economic development. HCR, ODR and PDR, which are mainly distributed in piedmont oases and take basin as unit, should be focused on in the development of Xinjiang. The EGE has great influence on RE）, and there is serious contradiction between them. Relevant suggestions on development strategies were put forward according to the character of different type regions, and the key regions of macro-layout of RD in Xinjiang were pointed out.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2003CB415101)
文摘Based on the pollen data obtained from thirty-five surface soil samples and investigated vegetation data from seven plant quadrats,the quantitative relationship between surface soil pollen and modern vegetation are studied in the longitudinal range-gorge region (LRGR) in Southwestern China.R-values (referring to pollen assemblages) are calculated with pollen percentage and plant abundance.The coefficients of similarity between pollen and vegetation are analyzed.The results show that the pollen assemblages on surface soil of all vegetation zones can basically represent the native vegetation,but the pollen assemblages are not fully according with the vegetation.This is due to the influencing factors including pollen preservation ability,pollen production,amount of exotic pollen and pollen identification.The pollen representation in surface soil is different in families and genera.The pollen of woody plants such as Pinus,Tsuga,Alnus,Fagus and Castanopsis are over-representative,but those of Quercus,Carpinus Myrica,Elaeocarpaceae,Ericaceae,Theaceae and Llex are underrepresentative;the pollen of herbaceous plants such as Artemisia and Rubiaceae are over-representative,while those of others including Gramineae and Araliaceae are under-representative.The R-values of the same taxon pollen in different vegetation zones are different,depending on their distances from the pollen sources.The coefficients of the similarity between plant communities and pollen assemblages are mostly over 70%,which indicate again that the surface soil pollen and spores assemblages can represent the vegetation.It is concluded that there is a good corresponding relationship between surface pollen assemblages and native vegetation in LRGR,and it is of great significance for reconstructing the past vegetation and paleoclimate using quantitative fossil pollen data in this region.
基金supported by the National Technology R&D Program (Grant nos. 2006BAD20B05 and 2008BAK50B06)
文摘Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.
基金funded by the National Technology & Science Support Program of China (2012BAD16B02)
文摘Grassland ecosystem is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle system. Clear comprehension of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage and potential of grasslands is very important for the effective management of grassland ecosystems. Grasslands in Inner Mongolia have undergone evident impacts from human activities and natural factors in recent decades. To explore the changes of carbon sequestration capacity of grasslands from 2000 to 2012, we carried out studies on the estimation of SOC storage and potential of grasslands in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, China based on field investigations and MODIS image data. First, we calculated vegetation cover using the dimidiate pixel model based on MODIS-EVI images. Following field investigations of aboveground biomass and plant height, we used a grassland quality evaluation model to get the grassland evaluation index, which is typically used to represent grassland quality. Second, a correlation regression model was established between grassland evaluation index and SOC density. Finally, by this regression model, we calculated the SOC storage and potential of the studied grasslands. Results indicated that SOC storage increased with fluctuations in the study area, and the annual changes varied among different sub-regions. The SOC storage of grasslands in 2012 increased by 0.51×1012 kg C compared to that in 2000. The average carbon sequestration rate was 0.04×1012 kg C/a. The slope of the values of SOC storage showed that SOC storage exhibited an overall increase since 2000, particularly for the grasslands of Hulun Buir city and Xilin Gol League, where the typical grassland type was mainly distributed. Taking the SOC storage under the best grassland quality between 2000 and 2012 as a reference, this study predicted that the SOC potential of grasslands in central and eastern Inner Mongolia in 2012 is 1.38×1012 kg C. This study will contribute to researches on related methods and fundamental database, as well as provide a reference for the protection of grassland ecosystems and the formulation of local policies on sustainable grassland development.
文摘Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.
基金Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530749 Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education,No.15ZB0023+1 种基金 Youth Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41301196,No.41501202 Chongqing Foundation and Advanced Research Project,No.cstc2014jcyj A0808
文摘Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity（NPP） dynamics of China＇s potential vegetation in the past 55 years（1961–2015） and in the future 35 years（2016–2050）. Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.
