Based on the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, the impacts of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost in China, European Union (EU)...Based on the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, the impacts of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost in China, European Union (EU), and Japan are assessed under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2 C scenarios due to the changed emission pathway of the U.S. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and a fixed burden-sharing scheme among countries, the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase the U.S. carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU, and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be increased. In 2030, under the 2 C target, the carbon price will increase by 4.4e14.6 US$ t1 in China, by 9.7e35.4 US$ t1 in the EU, and by 16.0e53.5 US$ t1 in Japan. In addition, China, EU, and Japan will incur additional Gross Domestic Production (GDP) loss. Under the 2 C target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$22.0e71.1 billion (equivalent to 16.4e53.1 US$ per capita), the EU's GDP loss would increase by US$9.4e32.1 billion (equivalent to 20.7e71.1 US$ per capita), and Japan's GDP loss will increase by US$4.1e13.5 billion (equivalent to 34.3e111.6 US$ per capita).展开更多
Applying qualitative and quantitative methods, this article explains the driving forces behind U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, assesses the impacts of this withdrawal o...Applying qualitative and quantitative methods, this article explains the driving forces behind U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, assesses the impacts of this withdrawal on the compliance prospects of the agreement, and proposes how China should respond. The withdrawal undercuts the foundation of global climate governance and upsets the process of climate cooperation, and the impacts are manifold. The withdrawal undermines the universality of the Paris Agreement and impairs states' confidence in climate cooperation; it aggravates the leadership deficit in addressing global climate issues and sets a bad precedent for international climate cooperation. The withdrawal reduces other countries' emission space and raises their emission costs, and refusal to contribute to climate aid makes it more difficult for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Cutting climate research funding will compromise the quality of future IPCC reports and ultimately undermine the scientific authority of future climate negotiations. China faces mounting pressure from the international community to assume global climate leadership after the U.S. withdraws, and this article proposes that China should reach the high ends of its domestic climate targets under the current Nationally Determined Contributions; internationally, China should facilitate the rebuilding of shared climate leadership, replacing the G2 with C5. Meanwhile, China needs to keep the U.S. engaged in climate cooperation.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the 2017 National Natural Science Foundation Project “The Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from Paris Agreement on Global Climate Governance and China's Response”.
文摘Based on the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, the impacts of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost in China, European Union (EU), and Japan are assessed under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2 C scenarios due to the changed emission pathway of the U.S. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and a fixed burden-sharing scheme among countries, the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase the U.S. carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU, and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be increased. In 2030, under the 2 C target, the carbon price will increase by 4.4e14.6 US$ t1 in China, by 9.7e35.4 US$ t1 in the EU, and by 16.0e53.5 US$ t1 in Japan. In addition, China, EU, and Japan will incur additional Gross Domestic Production (GDP) loss. Under the 2 C target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$22.0e71.1 billion (equivalent to 16.4e53.1 US$ per capita), the EU's GDP loss would increase by US$9.4e32.1 billion (equivalent to 20.7e71.1 US$ per capita), and Japan's GDP loss will increase by US$4.1e13.5 billion (equivalent to 34.3e111.6 US$ per capita).
基金This study was supported by the 2017 National Natural Science Foundation Project “The Impacts of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Global Climate Governance and China's Response”.
文摘Applying qualitative and quantitative methods, this article explains the driving forces behind U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, assesses the impacts of this withdrawal on the compliance prospects of the agreement, and proposes how China should respond. The withdrawal undercuts the foundation of global climate governance and upsets the process of climate cooperation, and the impacts are manifold. The withdrawal undermines the universality of the Paris Agreement and impairs states' confidence in climate cooperation; it aggravates the leadership deficit in addressing global climate issues and sets a bad precedent for international climate cooperation. The withdrawal reduces other countries' emission space and raises their emission costs, and refusal to contribute to climate aid makes it more difficult for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Cutting climate research funding will compromise the quality of future IPCC reports and ultimately undermine the scientific authority of future climate negotiations. China faces mounting pressure from the international community to assume global climate leadership after the U.S. withdraws, and this article proposes that China should reach the high ends of its domestic climate targets under the current Nationally Determined Contributions; internationally, China should facilitate the rebuilding of shared climate leadership, replacing the G2 with C5. Meanwhile, China needs to keep the U.S. engaged in climate cooperation.
