区域地球系统模式研究进展

区域地球系统模式是区域气候模式下一阶段的主要发展目标。本文阐述了发展区域地球系统模式的重要意义,分析了近年来区域地球系统模式的研究进展和典型案例,指出其多圈层通量耦合、空间分辨率提高以及耦合数据同化的三个共性特征。建议以开源共创的方式整合各界研究力量,加快建设我国自主可控的区域地球系统模式;围绕新建立的模式开展跨学科研究,特别关注其中多圈层、多尺度过程的相互作用;围绕高分辨率区域地球系统模式建立区域数字孪生监测预警平台,用于关键区域的防灾减灾和关键决策支撑。

气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。

Mapping Near-surface Air Temperature, Pressure, Relative Humidity and Wind Speed over China's Mainland with High Spatiotemporal Resolution

As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for China's Mainland with high spatiotemporal reso- lution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km× 1 km. The approach comprises two steps： （1） fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; （2） apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over China's Mainland. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Predic- tion （NCEP） Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.

基于陆面模式基准平台ILAMB对陆面模式CoLM的评估

模式评估是模式发展中不可或缺的重要一环。本文利用最新版陆面模式评估软件—ILAMB(International Land Model Benchmarking)对通用陆面模式(The Common Land Model,CoLM)进行客观评估,并与NCAR陆面模式CLM5(Community Land Model version 5)结果进行比较。作为一个陆面模式评估软件,ILAMB能对参与评估的模式变量自动生成诊断图形并对模式性能进行评分。评估结果表明,CoLM总体性能良好,模拟结果与基准数据较为接近。与CLM5相比,CoLM在总初级生产力及水文方面的表现略微逊色,在辐射方面则表现相当,对部分变量如地表向上长波辐射、地表净辐射等的模拟甚至优于CLM5。通过对比CRUNCEPv7和GSWP3v1两种强迫资料发现,它们在气候平均态上具有一定的差异,模式在GSWP3v1强迫下的表现相对较好。CoLM和CLM5在CRUCNEPv7强迫下模拟的潜热通量在亚马逊平原、亚洲东部和南部地区以及北美东部一带正偏差显著,而在GSWP3v1强迫下的模拟则有明显改善。这两个模式对感热通量的模拟在非洲北部、亚洲中部一带均明显偏高。在辐射方面,CoLM模拟的地表向上短波辐射在全球以偏高为主,这在一定程度上造成了地表净辐射的模拟偏低。各组试验模拟的地表向上长波辐射得分相差不大,但在具体的空间分布上有一定的差别。

Fourth-Order Conservative Transport on Overset Grids Using Multi-Moment Constrained Finite Volume Scheme for Oceanic Modeling

With an increase in model resolution,compact high-order numerical advection scheme can improve its effectiveness and competitiveness in oceanic modeling due to its high accuracy and scalability on massive-processor computers.To provide high-quality numerical ocean simulation on overset grids,we tried a novel formulation of the fourth-order multi-moment constrained finite volume scheme to simulate continuous and discontinuous problems in the Cartesian coordinate.Utilizing some degrees of freedom over each cell and derivatives at the cell center,we obtained a two-dimensional(2D)cubic polynomial from which point values on the extended overlap can achieve fourth-order accuracy.However,this interpolation causes a lack of conservation because the flux between the regions are no longer equal;thus,a flux correction is implemented to ensure conservation.A couple of numerical experiments are presented to evaluate the numerical scheme,which confirms its approximately fourth-order accuracy in conservative transportation on overset grid.The test cases reveal that the scheme is effective to suppress numerical oscillation in discontinuous problems,which may be powerful for salinity advection computing with a sharp gradient.

Preliminary estimation of the organic carbon pool in China's wetlands

Accurate estimation of wetland carbon pools is a prerequisite for wetland resource conservation and implementation of carbon sink enhancement plans.The inventory approach is a realistic method for estimating the organic carbon pool in China's wetlands at the national scale.An updated data and inventory approach were used to estimate the amount of organic carbon stored in China's wetlands.Primary results are as follows:(1) the organic carbon pool of China's wetlands is between 5.39 and 7.25 Pg,accounting for 1.3%-3.5% of the global level;(2) the estimated values and percentages of the organic carbon contained in the soil,water and vegetation pools in China's wetlands are 5.04-6.19 Pg and 85.4%-93.5%,0.22-0.56 Pg and 4.1%-7.7%,0.13-0.50 Pg and 2.4%-6.9%,respectively.The soil organic carbon pool of China's wetlands is greater than our previous estimate of 3.67 Pg,but is lower than other previous estimates of 12.20 and 8-10 Pg.Based on the discussion and uncertainty analysis,some research areas worthy of future attention are presented.

Geographical characteristics of China’s wetlands derived from remotely sensed data

In this paper, we report the first wetland mapping of the entire China using Landsat enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) data. These data were obtained from the Global Land Cover Facility at the University of Maryland spanning from 1999 to 2002. A total of 597 scenes of Landsat images were georeferenced and mosaiced. Manual image interpretation of satellite images was aided with elevation data, soil data, land cover/land use data and Google Earth. The minimum mapping unit is 10 pixel × 10 pixel, equivalent to 9 ha. The aim of our first round of mapping was only targeted at the boundary delineation of any type of wetland except those wetlands that are under agricultural use (i.e., paddy fields), which has already been well mapped by others. Our interpretation results indicate that a total of 359478 km2 of wetlands are of non-agricultural use. Among our preliminarily mapped wetland, 339353 km2 are inland wetland, 2786 km2 are non-agricultural artificial wetland, and 17609 km2 are coastal wetland. Because low-tide is rarely captured in satellite images, an under-estimation of coastal wetland is inevitable. We conducted some statistics based on our mapped wetlands and compared them with those previously obtained from a number of sources including a land cover/land use map made with satellite images during the late 1990s and early 2000s, a marshland map developed in approximately the same period, survey data of coastal wetland in early 1980s, and area data for approximately 400 larger patches of marshland in China compiled in 1996. Because some inconsistencies exist in the guidelines of those different wetland surveys, difference in area is expected. Some further comparison indicates that the wetland distributions derived from the preliminary wetland map are reasonable and more objective than other sources. The mapping process also indicated that the method adopted by us was efficient and cost-effective. We also found that in order to ensure comparability of the wetland maps developed at different times, a set of standard guidelines on the wetland categories to be mapped, and the mapping methods to be used must be well conceived, developed and effectively employed. We carried out some initial geographical analysis on the distribution of wetlands.