基于中国台湾地区主持的侵台台风之飞机侦察及下投式探空仪观测实验(Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region,DOTSTAR)获得的高分辨率下投式探空仪探测资料,分析了2003年9月—2012年8月所有发生...基于中国台湾地区主持的侵台台风之飞机侦察及下投式探空仪观测实验(Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region,DOTSTAR)获得的高分辨率下投式探空仪探测资料,分析了2003年9月—2012年8月所有发生在中国台湾地区附近海域的台风型大气波导事件,遴选出一次由0920号超强台风"卢碧"引起的强台风型海上大气波导过程作为研究对象。利用欧洲中期数值预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料(水平分辨率0.125°×0.125°),对此次波导的生成原因进行了分析;基于WRF模式比较了不同初始化方法对台风强度、尺度和周围台风型大气波导的模拟能力。结果表明,此次强台风型大气波导发生在台风环流西北侧外围的弱下沉运动区,其形成与850 hPa高度附近北方强干空气平流导致湿度随高度锐减密切相关。在数值模拟中运用台风动力初始化方法,可以有效改进台风强度、路径和尺度的模拟效果,进而有利于改善台风型大气波导尤其是波导层所在高度的模拟效果。台风外围出现的大气波导通常以悬空波导为主,模拟效果与台风螺旋雨带和内核尺度的模拟关系密切,而与台风强度和眼墙结构关系不大。中尺度数值模式WRF具有模拟台风型大气波导的能力,是研究台风型大气波导的有力手段。展开更多
大气波导对电磁波的陷获作用可以通过雷达超视距探测和异常地物回波等现象被直观感知和捕获.文中基于欧洲中期数值预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料、葵花卫星云图和WRF4.2模式,对福...大气波导对电磁波的陷获作用可以通过雷达超视距探测和异常地物回波等现象被直观感知和捕获.文中基于欧洲中期数值预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料、葵花卫星云图和WRF4.2模式,对福建中南部及粤东沿海天气雷达探测到的一次伴随异常地物回波的超视距探测现象开展成因分析和数值模拟研究.研究结果表明:此次大范围异常地物回波的出现与台湾海峡持续存在的显著大气波导过程有关.台湾海峡受高空槽后下沉运动与低空暖脊共同影响,存在逆温层结与强烈的湿度随高度锐减层,有利于大气波导形成;模拟时段中后期,台湾海峡几乎被顶高200-600 m的表面波导全覆盖,且波导强度持续增强,最终整体强度达到40 M单位以上.进一步利用WRF模式模拟预报的气象雷达传播路径上非均匀大气波导廓线,输入电磁波传播模型,结果与雷达实测回波的主体结构吻合,证实了利用中尺度模式开展大气波导预报与传播应用的良好前景.展开更多
远海悬空波导陷获层底的位置通常与边界层浅云的云顶有很好的对应,气溶胶与边界层浅云的相互作用及其产生的辐射强迫将改变悬空波导的结构.文中利用天气预报-化学(weather research and forecasting-chemistry,WRF-Chem)模式通过设计不...远海悬空波导陷获层底的位置通常与边界层浅云的云顶有很好的对应,气溶胶与边界层浅云的相互作用及其产生的辐射强迫将改变悬空波导的结构.文中利用天气预报-化学(weather research and forecasting-chemistry,WRF-Chem)模式通过设计不包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射的EXP0试验(相当于WRF模式)和包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射相互作用(即气溶胶直接和间接效应)的EXP1试验,对2016年5月观测到的一次珍贵的远海高压型超强悬空波导过程进行了模拟分析.结果表明:远海高压天气形势下,EXP1试验模拟的由气溶胶活化后形成的云滴数浓度比EXP0试验云滴数浓度预设常值(100个cm-3)偏低;当伴随边界层浅云出现时,EXP1试验模拟的波导顶高和强度较EXP0试验更接近于实测;夜间进行的3次观测位于高压中心附近的无云区,此时气溶胶的直接和间接效应均可忽略,因此两组试验模拟的差异极小.这一结果从侧面说明,在有边界层浅云出现的远海区域,包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射效应的WRF-Chem模式有利于提高悬空波导特征量的模拟效果.展开更多
Based on best track data of tropical cyclones(TCs) from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the characteristics of suddenly reversed TCs(SRTCs), which have turning angles usually approaching 180°, are statistica...Based on best track data of tropical cyclones(TCs) from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the characteristics of suddenly reversed TCs(SRTCs), which have turning angles usually approaching 180°, are statistically analyzed from 1949 to 2011 over the western North Pacific Ocean. The typical large-scale circulation patterns of SRTCs are investigated using reanalysis data and dynamical composite analysis. Results show that turnings mainly occur in low latitudes between 10°N and 20°N,and mainly west of 135°E. The majority of SRTCs reach their peak intensity at, or slightly before, the turning time and subsequently decrease at some variable rate. Specifically, SRTCs are divided into four types, each containing two groups(i.e.eight groups in total) in terms of the moving-direction changes. The moving speed of all SRTC types except the south–north type decreases to its lowest during the 24 h, corresponding to a significant reduction in the primary steering components.According to the analysis of the 13 typical flow patterns found in this study, we suggest that sudden track changes are caused by the reversal steering flow. The original balance of the background flow patterns are broken up by new systems, e.g. binary TCs or dispersion-induced anticyclones. Additionally, sudden track changes are often due to double ridge variations of the subtropical high or weakened/strengthened high pressure in the east and west, respectively.展开更多
文摘基于中国台湾地区主持的侵台台风之飞机侦察及下投式探空仪观测实验(Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region,DOTSTAR)获得的高分辨率下投式探空仪探测资料,分析了2003年9月—2012年8月所有发生在中国台湾地区附近海域的台风型大气波导事件,遴选出一次由0920号超强台风"卢碧"引起的强台风型海上大气波导过程作为研究对象。利用欧洲中期数值预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料(水平分辨率0.125°×0.125°),对此次波导的生成原因进行了分析;基于WRF模式比较了不同初始化方法对台风强度、尺度和周围台风型大气波导的模拟能力。结果表明,此次强台风型大气波导发生在台风环流西北侧外围的弱下沉运动区,其形成与850 hPa高度附近北方强干空气平流导致湿度随高度锐减密切相关。在数值模拟中运用台风动力初始化方法,可以有效改进台风强度、路径和尺度的模拟效果,进而有利于改善台风型大气波导尤其是波导层所在高度的模拟效果。台风外围出现的大气波导通常以悬空波导为主,模拟效果与台风螺旋雨带和内核尺度的模拟关系密切,而与台风强度和眼墙结构关系不大。中尺度数值模式WRF具有模拟台风型大气波导的能力,是研究台风型大气波导的有力手段。
文摘大气波导对电磁波的陷获作用可以通过雷达超视距探测和异常地物回波等现象被直观感知和捕获.文中基于欧洲中期数值预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料、葵花卫星云图和WRF4.2模式,对福建中南部及粤东沿海天气雷达探测到的一次伴随异常地物回波的超视距探测现象开展成因分析和数值模拟研究.研究结果表明:此次大范围异常地物回波的出现与台湾海峡持续存在的显著大气波导过程有关.台湾海峡受高空槽后下沉运动与低空暖脊共同影响,存在逆温层结与强烈的湿度随高度锐减层,有利于大气波导形成;模拟时段中后期,台湾海峡几乎被顶高200-600 m的表面波导全覆盖,且波导强度持续增强,最终整体强度达到40 M单位以上.进一步利用WRF模式模拟预报的气象雷达传播路径上非均匀大气波导廓线,输入电磁波传播模型,结果与雷达实测回波的主体结构吻合,证实了利用中尺度模式开展大气波导预报与传播应用的良好前景.
文摘远海悬空波导陷获层底的位置通常与边界层浅云的云顶有很好的对应,气溶胶与边界层浅云的相互作用及其产生的辐射强迫将改变悬空波导的结构.文中利用天气预报-化学(weather research and forecasting-chemistry,WRF-Chem)模式通过设计不包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射的EXP0试验(相当于WRF模式)和包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射相互作用(即气溶胶直接和间接效应)的EXP1试验,对2016年5月观测到的一次珍贵的远海高压型超强悬空波导过程进行了模拟分析.结果表明:远海高压天气形势下,EXP1试验模拟的由气溶胶活化后形成的云滴数浓度比EXP0试验云滴数浓度预设常值(100个cm-3)偏低;当伴随边界层浅云出现时,EXP1试验模拟的波导顶高和强度较EXP0试验更接近于实测;夜间进行的3次观测位于高压中心附近的无云区,此时气溶胶的直接和间接效应均可忽略,因此两组试验模拟的差异极小.这一结果从侧面说明,在有边界层浅云出现的远海区域,包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射效应的WRF-Chem模式有利于提高悬空波导特征量的模拟效果.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230421, 41005029 and 41105065)the National Public Benefit (Meteorology) Research Foundation of China (Grant No. GYHY201106004)
文摘Based on best track data of tropical cyclones(TCs) from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the characteristics of suddenly reversed TCs(SRTCs), which have turning angles usually approaching 180°, are statistically analyzed from 1949 to 2011 over the western North Pacific Ocean. The typical large-scale circulation patterns of SRTCs are investigated using reanalysis data and dynamical composite analysis. Results show that turnings mainly occur in low latitudes between 10°N and 20°N,and mainly west of 135°E. The majority of SRTCs reach their peak intensity at, or slightly before, the turning time and subsequently decrease at some variable rate. Specifically, SRTCs are divided into four types, each containing two groups(i.e.eight groups in total) in terms of the moving-direction changes. The moving speed of all SRTC types except the south–north type decreases to its lowest during the 24 h, corresponding to a significant reduction in the primary steering components.According to the analysis of the 13 typical flow patterns found in this study, we suggest that sudden track changes are caused by the reversal steering flow. The original balance of the background flow patterns are broken up by new systems, e.g. binary TCs or dispersion-induced anticyclones. Additionally, sudden track changes are often due to double ridge variations of the subtropical high or weakened/strengthened high pressure in the east and west, respectively.