With the increasing proportion of renewable energy in China’s energy structure,among which photovoltaic power generation is also developing rapidly.As the photovoltaic(PV)power output is highly unstable and subject t...With the increasing proportion of renewable energy in China’s energy structure,among which photovoltaic power generation is also developing rapidly.As the photovoltaic(PV)power output is highly unstable and subject to a variety of factors,it brings great challenges to the stable operation and dispatch of the power grid.Therefore,accurate short-term PV power prediction is of great significance to ensure the safe grid connection of PV energy.Currently,the short-term prediction of PV power has received extensive attention and research,but the accuracy and precision of the prediction have to be further improved.Therefore,this paper reviews the PV power prediction methods from five aspects:influencing factors,evaluation indexes,prediction status,difficulties and future trends.Then summarizes the current difficulties in prediction based on an in-depth analysis of the current research status of physical methods based on the classification ofmodel features,statistical methods,artificial intelligence methods,and combinedmethods of prediction.Finally,the development trend ofPVpower generation prediction technology and possible future research directions are envisioned.展开更多
基金supported in part by the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Science and Technology Project Fund(2021GG0336)Inner Mongolia Natural Science Fund(2023ZD20).
文摘With the increasing proportion of renewable energy in China’s energy structure,among which photovoltaic power generation is also developing rapidly.As the photovoltaic(PV)power output is highly unstable and subject to a variety of factors,it brings great challenges to the stable operation and dispatch of the power grid.Therefore,accurate short-term PV power prediction is of great significance to ensure the safe grid connection of PV energy.Currently,the short-term prediction of PV power has received extensive attention and research,but the accuracy and precision of the prediction have to be further improved.Therefore,this paper reviews the PV power prediction methods from five aspects:influencing factors,evaluation indexes,prediction status,difficulties and future trends.Then summarizes the current difficulties in prediction based on an in-depth analysis of the current research status of physical methods based on the classification ofmodel features,statistical methods,artificial intelligence methods,and combinedmethods of prediction.Finally,the development trend ofPVpower generation prediction technology and possible future research directions are envisioned.
