Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales,Colombia

The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models. A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic, landslide, and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards. Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered. The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants, which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur. The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating anautomatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales,Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases, and the development of damage models for different types of elements. The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration. The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System, obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and probable maximum loss. For the case of pipelines, repair rates were also estimated. The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies, as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic, and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings, the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.