In this work, in order to identify the most effective measure and combinations of several measures to control influenza spread, we propose an SVEIAR influenza model with imperfect vaccination, media coverage and antiv...In this work, in order to identify the most effective measure and combinations of several measures to control influenza spread, we propose an SVEIAR influenza model with imperfect vaccination, media coverage and antiviral treatment. The global dynamics of the model is explored. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of influenza control measures. Purthermore, an optimal control problem incorporating the three measures is formulated to design optimal control strategies for influenza. The cost-effectiveness analysis reveals that combining the three measures is the most cost-effective among the strategies considered. Numerical simulations show that media propaganda can play a dominant role in curbing influenza transmission.展开更多
In the last 60 years, great progress has been made in controlling and preventing tuber- culosis in China. However, the number of tuberculosis cases has increased dramatically in the last 25 years, mainly due to the la...In the last 60 years, great progress has been made in controlling and preventing tuber- culosis in China. However, the number of tuberculosis cases has increased dramatically in the last 25 years, mainly due to the lack of effective control measures of immigrating populations with tuberculosis. In order to explore the effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of tuber- culosis in Guangdong province of China in this paper. The model consists of susceptible, exposed and infectious recovered subpopulations of immigrating populations from other provinces and the local population of Guangdong. We obtain the effective reproduc- tion number. Based on the analysis, we also establish an optimal immune programming model, and get the optimal proportion of vaccine coverage with control of the effective reproduction number. Simulation is used to determine the validation and reliability. Our study demonstrates that the immigrating population from different provinces needs to be vaccinated according to the incidence rate of TB in their original provinces, and it is an effective way to prevent the outbreak of tuberculosis in Ouangdong.展开更多
基金Acknowledgments The work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （Nos. 11261017, 11371161）, and the key scientific research project of Education Department of Hubei Province of China （No. D20101902）.
文摘In this work, in order to identify the most effective measure and combinations of several measures to control influenza spread, we propose an SVEIAR influenza model with imperfect vaccination, media coverage and antiviral treatment. The global dynamics of the model is explored. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of influenza control measures. Purthermore, an optimal control problem incorporating the three measures is formulated to design optimal control strategies for influenza. The cost-effectiveness analysis reveals that combining the three measures is the most cost-effective among the strategies considered. Numerical simulations show that media propaganda can play a dominant role in curbing influenza transmission.
文摘In the last 60 years, great progress has been made in controlling and preventing tuber- culosis in China. However, the number of tuberculosis cases has increased dramatically in the last 25 years, mainly due to the lack of effective control measures of immigrating populations with tuberculosis. In order to explore the effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of tuber- culosis in Guangdong province of China in this paper. The model consists of susceptible, exposed and infectious recovered subpopulations of immigrating populations from other provinces and the local population of Guangdong. We obtain the effective reproduc- tion number. Based on the analysis, we also establish an optimal immune programming model, and get the optimal proportion of vaccine coverage with control of the effective reproduction number. Simulation is used to determine the validation and reliability. Our study demonstrates that the immigrating population from different provinces needs to be vaccinated according to the incidence rate of TB in their original provinces, and it is an effective way to prevent the outbreak of tuberculosis in Ouangdong.
