The Emission Reduction Potential of Non-CO_2 Greenhouse Gases in China and Its Policy Implications

Using the improved Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model (GTAP-E) and the sixth version of emission database of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, we simulate the emission reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in China and its policy implications. The results show that at present, China is a country with the greatest emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in the world, and the emission will account for about 20% of the world's total emission in 2020. The proportion of emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases from the agricultural sector reaches 73%. In the next 10 years, the emission of non-CO2 gases from cattle and sheep, industry and service industry will experience the highest growth rate; the growth rate of emission from service industry will be higher than that of emission from industry, and the emission from service industry will exceed that from industry after 2010. China can implement emission reduction policy of non-CO2 greenhouse gases to ease the international pressure of CO2 emission reduction. Although the high carbon tax collected can reduce considerable non-CO2 emission, there is little difference in policy efficiency between high carbon tax and low carbon tax. So, in the implementation of emission reduction carbon tax policy of non-CO2 gases, it is necessary to control the carbon tax at a low level.