Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of deter- mining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES （Crop Environment Resource Synthesis） and APSIM （Agricultural Production Systems Simulator）, were used to simulate the yield of wheat （Triticum aestivum L.） under well irrigated （CFG） and rain-fed （YY） conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain （NCP）. The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide （COa） concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCR The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCR There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water （CFG and YY） conditions. While a temperature increase of 2℃ was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1℃ decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rain- fed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈ 3.5% per 60 ppm （parts per million） increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to560ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈ 7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

Contributions of climate, varieties, and agronomic management to rice yield change in the past three decades in China

The long-term field experiment data at four representative agro-meteorological stations, together with a crop simulation model, were used to disentangle the contributions of climate change, variety renewal, and fertilization management to rice yield change in the past three decades. We found that during 1981-2009 varieties renewal increased rice yield by 16%-52%, management improvement increased yield by 0-16%, and the contribu- tions of climate change to rice yield varied from - 16% to 10%. Varieties renewal and management improvement offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice production. Among the major climate variables, decreases in solar radiation reduced rice yield on average by 0.1% per year. The impact of temperature change had an explicit spatial pattern. It increased yield by 0.04%-0.4% per year for single rice at Xinbin and Ganyu station and for late rice at Tongcheng station, by contrast reduced yield by 0.2%- 0.4% per year for single rice at Mianyang station and early rice at Tongcheng station. During 1981-2009, rice varieties renewal was characterized by increases in thermal requirements, grain number per spike and harvest index. The new varieties were less sensitive to climate change than old ones. The development of high thermal require- ments, high yield potential and heat tolerant rice varieties, together with improvement of agronomic management, should be encouraged to meet the challenges of climate change and increasing food demand in future.

Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain of China （HHHP） are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator （APSIM）-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity （Gr） of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d·10yr^-1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering （TT_floral_initiation） increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Altematively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity （TT_start grain_fill） increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades （1981- 2009） prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d·10yr^-1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time （TT） of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg·yr^-1. However, thermal time shift （TTS） increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 Received September 16, 2015; accepted January 24, 2016 kg·yr^-1. It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.

Energy partitioning and environmental influence factors in different vegetation types in the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment

Environmental influences upon energy balance in areas of different vegetation types （i.e., forest at Kog-Ma in Thailand and at Yakutsk in Russia, grassland at Amdo in Chinese Tibet and at Arvaikheer in Mongolia, and mixed farmland at Tak in Thailand） in the GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment were investigated. The sites we investigated are geographically and climatologically different; and consequently had quite large variations in temperature （T）, water vapor pressure deficit （VPD）, soil moisture （SM）, and precipitation （PPT）. During May- October, the net radiation flux （Rn） （in W·m^-2） was 406.21 at Tak, 365.57 at Kog-Ma, 390.97 at Amdo, 316.65 at Arvaikheer, and 287.10 at Yakutsk. During the growing period, the Rn partitioned into latent heat flux （2E/Rn） was greater than that partitioned into sensible heat flux （H/Rn） at Tak and at Kog-Ma. In contrast, 2E/Rn was lower than H/Rn at Arvaikheer, H/Rn was less than 2E/Rn between DOY 149 and DOY 270 at Amdo, and between DOY 165 and DOY 235 at Yakutsk. The R, partitioned into ground heat flux was generally less than 0.15. The short-wave albedo was 0.12, 0.18, and 0.20 at the forest, mixed land, and grass sites, respectively. At an hourly scale, energy partitions had no correlation with environmental factors, based on average summer half- hourly values. At a seasonal scale energy partitions were linearly correlated （usually p 〈 0.05） with T, VPD, and SM. The 2E/Rn increased with increases in SM, T, and VPD at forest areas. At mixed farmlands, ）λE/Rn generally had positive correlations with SM, T, and VPD, but was restrained at extremely high values of VPD and T. At grasslands, λE/Rn was enhanced with increases of SM and T, but was decreased with VPD.

Carbon concentrations of components of trees in lO-year-old Populus davidiana stands within the Desertification Combating Program of Northern China

Most studies do not consider the potential variation in carbon concentration among the different tree components of the same species in regional scale. This study examined the carbon concentrations of the compo- nents （i.e., foliage, branch, stem, and root） in a 10-year-old poplar species （Populus davidiana Dode） from the Desertification Combating Program of Northern China. The highest and lowest carbon concentrations were found in the stem and foliage, respectively. There was a significant difference in carbon concentrations among the different tree components. All of the observed carbon concentrations of tree components were lower than those predicted using the conversion factor of 0.5 applied to component biomass. Stem carbon made up 59.7% of the total tree biomass carbon. The power equation estimating proportion of tree biomass carbon against the independent variable of diameter at breast height explained more than 90% of the variability in allocation of carbon among tree components. Tree height, as a second independent variable is also discussed. Our results suggest that the difference in organic carbon concentration among tree components should be incorporated into accurately develop forest carbon budget. Moreover, further investigations on how the diameter at breast height equation developed in the present study performs across broader scales are required.