Urban growth prediction has acquired an important consideration in urban sustainability. An effective approach of urban prediction can be a valuable tool in urban decision making and planning. A large urban developmen...Urban growth prediction has acquired an important consideration in urban sustainability. An effective approach of urban prediction can be a valuable tool in urban decision making and planning. A large urban development has been occurred during last decade in the touristic village of Pogonia Etoloakarnanias, Greece, where an urban growth of 57.5% has been recorded from 2003 to 2011. The prediction of new urban settlements was achieved using fractals and theory of chaos. More specifically, it was found that the urban growth is taken place within a Sierpinski carpet. Several shapes of Sierpinski carpets were tested in order to find the most appropriate, which produced an accuracy percentage of 70.6% for training set and 81.8% for validation set. This prediction method can be effectively applied in urban growth modelling, once cities are fractals and urban complexity can be successfully described through a Sierpinski tessellation.展开更多
Urban development has acquired an important magnitude in touristic places in Greece. Many villages, especially in seaside areas have adapted to touristic requirements by the necessary infrastructures and activities. P...Urban development has acquired an important magnitude in touristic places in Greece. Many villages, especially in seaside areas have adapted to touristic requirements by the necessary infrastructures and activities. Pogonia, located in Vonitsa Etoloakarnanias, is a village which has welcomed the opportunity of touristic development. As a result, the house settlements increased 57.5% during the last 8 years. Urban growth modelling using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was applied in order to simulate the urban development in Pogonia village using two methods: determinism and stochasticity. The variables used for deterministic simulation were: distances to roads, urban areas and coastline, slope and elevation. It was found that urban development can be better described using the network of distances between all urban settlements (stochastic approach) rather than using determinism. This can be explained by the importance of the neighbourhood relationships and the interaction between urban settlements, occurred within the interconnected network of the self-organized urban system.展开更多
文摘Urban growth prediction has acquired an important consideration in urban sustainability. An effective approach of urban prediction can be a valuable tool in urban decision making and planning. A large urban development has been occurred during last decade in the touristic village of Pogonia Etoloakarnanias, Greece, where an urban growth of 57.5% has been recorded from 2003 to 2011. The prediction of new urban settlements was achieved using fractals and theory of chaos. More specifically, it was found that the urban growth is taken place within a Sierpinski carpet. Several shapes of Sierpinski carpets were tested in order to find the most appropriate, which produced an accuracy percentage of 70.6% for training set and 81.8% for validation set. This prediction method can be effectively applied in urban growth modelling, once cities are fractals and urban complexity can be successfully described through a Sierpinski tessellation.
文摘Urban development has acquired an important magnitude in touristic places in Greece. Many villages, especially in seaside areas have adapted to touristic requirements by the necessary infrastructures and activities. Pogonia, located in Vonitsa Etoloakarnanias, is a village which has welcomed the opportunity of touristic development. As a result, the house settlements increased 57.5% during the last 8 years. Urban growth modelling using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was applied in order to simulate the urban development in Pogonia village using two methods: determinism and stochasticity. The variables used for deterministic simulation were: distances to roads, urban areas and coastline, slope and elevation. It was found that urban development can be better described using the network of distances between all urban settlements (stochastic approach) rather than using determinism. This can be explained by the importance of the neighbourhood relationships and the interaction between urban settlements, occurred within the interconnected network of the self-organized urban system.
