基于EMSDBO算法的无人机三维航迹规划

针对无人机(unmanned aerial vehicle,UAV)三维航迹规划问题,提出一种增强型多策略蜣螂算法的UAV航迹规划方法。首先,将飞行接近率和响应时间的动态约束添加到威胁成本代价中,并考虑UAV转弯性能的影响,建立三维任务空间模型与航迹代价函数。其次,在蜣螂算法中引入偏移估计策略、变螺旋搜索策略、准反向学习策略和逐维变异策略,提高算法的全局寻优能力和收敛速度。最后,给出了改进算法在三维环境下航迹规划的仿真结果。结果表明:综合考虑UAV机动性能和转弯性能,规划出的路径可以更加安全有效地避开危险源。相比其他算法,改进算法的寻优能力更好,规划的航迹质量更优。

跑道侵入风险评价的改进网络层次分析法研究

跑道侵入事件已成为威胁航空安全运行的重要因素之一。基于系统工程的思想,从机场、空中交通管制、航空公司三个方面分析造成跑道侵入事件发生的主要因素及其关联关系,并建立风险评价指标体系;利用三角模糊数对传统的网络层次分析法进行改进,基于此建立跑道侵入风险评价研究模型;通过实例分析,找出对跑道侵入风险产生影响的主要因素。结果表明:所用方法可行有效,能够反映出风险因素之间的相互关系,降低了主观判断对指标权重的影响程度,有助于制定预防跑道侵入事件发生的有效措施;管制员工作负荷、管制员情景意识丧失、飞行员操作偏差/疏忽为产生跑道侵入的主要风险因素。

航空公司飞行安全综合评估方法研究

人的因素是影响飞行安全的关键因素,并且各决策因素具有难以度量的不确定性。以机组人为因素为主要研究对象,利用SHELL模型建立飞行安全评估指标体系,并利用AHP方法计算评估指标体系中各个指标的权重;运用物元理论建立评估模型并利用该模型进行飞行安全综合评估,找出影响飞行安全的主要指标;通过实例验证所用方法的可行性、有效性。结果表明:所用方法可行、有效,能够最大限度地解决评估过程中的不确定性,可为航空公司进行飞行安全管理提供一个可行的方法。

基于成本收益理论的A型飞机改装翼梢小翼经济性分析

改装翼梢小翼可以有效降低诱导阻力,减少飞机燃油消耗和尾气排放,提高飞机经济性的同时保护环境;然而翼梢小翼通常价格昂贵,在进行翼梢小翼改装项目时,需要对翼梢小翼进行经济性评估。以A型飞机改装翼梢小翼为例,运用成本收益理论,建立A型飞机改装翼梢小翼经济性评估模型,分析平均航段距离、飞机平均日利用率、付款方式、贴现率等因素对翼梢小翼投资回收期的影响规律。结合实例评估分析某航空公司A型飞机改装翼梢小翼的经济性,为航空公司改装翼梢小翼预先的投资回收期计算分析提供参考依据。

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响下中国航空货运量分析与预测

在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对航空货运的影响下,月度航空货运量出现异于历史趋势的极端数据,而传统航空货运量预测模型有在极端数据影响下误差较大的问题。因此,研究了适用于后疫情时代的中国航空货运量短期预测方法。对2009-2020年中国航空货运量月度数据进行分析,发现中国航空货运量呈稳定增长趋势。受疫情影响出现短期剧烈波动,在假设疫情对航空货运的影响逐渐减弱的前提下,选取Holt-Winters乘法模型与求和自回归移动平均ARIMA乘积季节模型分别提取航空货运量数据的长期趋势、周期特征和短期波动特征,并采用4种不同权重确定方法构建了多个航空货运量组合预测模型。运用Holt-Winter模型、ARIMA模型及其组合预测模型对2021-2022年中国航空月度货运量进行了预测,以2021年1月—5月的航空货运量数据作为验证数据集,对比分析了不同预测模型的预测误差。结果表明:Holt-Winters与ARIMA组合预测模型的平均绝对百分比误差与最大绝对百分比误差普遍小于自身单一模型的;基于最小二乘法赋权的组合模型预测效果最优,基于残差倒数法赋权的组合模型预测效果次优;最优组合模型的平均绝对百分比误差为1.93%,比次优组合模型降低了8.53%,较单一的Holt-Winters模型与ARIMA模型分别降低了71.70%与20.58%,验证了最优组合模型对后疫情时代中国航空货运量月度数据预测的有效性。

基于Prepar3D的飞行原理教学实验平台建设

在Prepar3D飞行模拟软件以及高性能飞行训练器的基础上,提出了基于Prepar3D的飞行原理教学实验平台建设方案.该方案主要由基础飞行操纵、程序飞行、特殊环境飞行与飞行情境4个模块构成.基于Prepar3D的飞行原理教学实验平台兼顾航空公司的特色要求,转变了传统的飞行原理教学模式,解决了目前飞行原理教学过程中"重理论、轻实践"等问题.该平台的搭建对进一步培养高素质的飞行学员具有重要意义.

Flight Safety System Evaluation and Optimal Linear Prediction

The complexity of flight safety system is usually affected by a variety of uncertainties.The uncertainty of overall security situation of flight safety system are hardly determined.In this work,flight safety assessment index system is firstly established based on software hardware environment liveware management(SHELM)model.And flight safety assessment is also carried out with matter-element theory algorithm to obtain safety state.According to correlation degree values of each evaluation index,key indexes affected flight safety are obtained.Under the assumption that the flight safety system is a linear dynamic system and combining the above evaluation analysis,Kalman filter algorithm is used to carry out prediction analysis on security situation.A simulation analysis is carried out based on an actual flight safety situation of an airline.The results show that the security state of airline flight safety system in a short period of time can be obtained,and main factors affecting flight safety are found out.This provides a viable way for airlines to further strengthen flight safety management.

Grey Incidence Analysis Applied to Civil Aircraft Customization Process

The airlines need to select the optional equipment according to their individual development demands and the manufacture′s standard specification manual when purchasing a new airplane.For this customization process,the selection theory is mainly based on qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The grey incidence analysis(GIA)is used for modeling,which evaluates the correlations between optional equipment and airlines′individual demands.Meanwhile,the customization demands are quantitatively processed as different weights in evaluation index system with analytical hierarchy process.Then,the value of grey incidence degree is obtained which shows whether the optional equipment is on the purchasing list or not.Finally,two airlines′customization demands are applied in the example of aircraft cabin′s seats,so two different purchasing priorities and equipment installation lists can be obtained.The results and comparisons verify the reasonable of modeling,which provides an objective scheme of aircraft equipment selection.

Engine Selection Based on Utility Theory

Since an engine is seen as the″heart″of an airplane,the objective and scientific evaluation of it is significant to ensure normal operation of airlines.Aiming at the limitations of current studies on selecting engines,a quantitative comprehensive evaluation system of engine options was established and an optimization model based on the utility theory and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was proposed.Considering the judgement of different customers on the balance between income and risk,the utility of each evaluation index was determined by utilizing the piecewise utility function.The AHP was used to analyze individual demands of customers.Finally,the optimal scheme was selected through calculating the weighted utility value.According to the actual needs of a domestic airline,the utility of three engine options was calculated.The results showed that the value of risk factor can be set to determine the selection scheme based on the degree of preferences(conservative type,neutral type or adventurous type).