血清钙磷乘积对老年骨质疏松性椎体骨折的预测价值探讨

目的 分析血清钙磷乘积对老年骨质疏松性椎体压缩骨折(OVCF)的预测价值。方法 回顾性分析2018年7月至2022年6月收治的因老年OVCF行椎体成形术患者100例为观察组,选取同期同数量年龄、性别相匹配的因脊柱退变性疾病行手术治疗的患者为对照组,比较两组入院时的一般资料及实验室指标,通过Logistic回归分析老年OVCF发生的相关影响因素,绘制ROC曲线,比较其评估老年患者OVCF风险发生的效能,并与亚洲人骨质疏松症自我评估工具(OSTA)进行对比分析,进一步探讨血清钙磷乘积对老年OVCF的预测价值。结果 观察组白蛋白、血清钙、磷、钙磷乘积、校正血钙、校正钙磷乘积、OSTA指数均低于对照组(P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析表明,血清钙、磷、钙磷乘积、校正血钙、校正钙磷乘积及OSTA指数升高是老年OVCF的保护因素。ROC曲线结果显示,血清钙磷乘积、校正钙磷乘积及OSTA对老年OVCF诊断的AUC值分别为0.810、0.772、0.659,且血清钙磷乘积及校正钙磷乘积预测老年OVCF的效能优于OSTA指数。结论 血清钙磷乘积及校正钙磷乘积对老年OVCF的发生具有预测价值。

中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究:进展与展望

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。

Modeling the carbon dynamics of alpine grassland in the Qinghai-TibetanPlateau under scenarios of 1.5 and 2 ℃ global warming

Alpine grassland occupies two-thirds of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). It is vital to project changes of this vulnerable ecosystem under different climate change scenarios before taking any mitigation or adaptation measures. In this study, we used a process-based ecosystem model, driven with output from global circulation models under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to project the carbon dynamics of alpine grassland. The results showed the following: 1) Vegetation carbon (C) on the QTP increased by 22—38 gC m^-2 during periods of 1.5 and 2 ℃ warming under different RCPs when compared to the baseline period (1981—2006), while soil C increased by 85—122 gC m^-2. 2) The increases of vegetation C and soil C at the period of 1.5 ℃ warming were about 15 gC m^-2 and 40 gC m^-2 smaller than those at the period of 2 ℃ warming, respectively;increase of C was greater for alpine meadow than for alpine steppe. 3) Precipitation, radiation, and permafrost changed significantly and showed heterogeneous spatial patterns, and caused heterogeneous response of C dynamics. For alpine meadow in regions transformed from permafrost to seasonally frozen soil with medium annual precipitation (200—400 mm), vegetation C and net primary production decreased by 18.7 gC m-2 and 3.1 gC m^-2 per year during 2 °C warming under RCP 4.5, respectively. This decrease can be attributed to the disappearing impermeable permafrost. Different from previous studies that indicated an unfavorable response of alpine grassland to climate warming, this study showed a relatively favorable response, which is mainly attributed to C 0 2 fertilization.

Regional differences in global glacier retreat from 1980 to 2015

Global warming triggers shrinking and thinning of glaciers worldwide,with potentially severe implications for human society.However,regional differences in glacier retreat and its relationship with climatic characteristics have not been conclusively demonstrated.In this study,regional changes in global glaciers based on two primary features,area change and mass balance,were investigated on the basis of data collected from published research on glacier changes.Results show that during the period 1980—2015,the rate of global glacier area shrinkage was 0.18%per year and that of global glacier mass loss was 0.25 m w.e.per year.Retreat of glaciers located at low and middle latitudes was characterized by severe area shrinkage and mass loss.Correspondingly,in the Arctic,deglaciation was characterized by ice thinning due to a low area reduction but relatively high mass loss rate.However,glaciers in high southern latitudes were in a relatively stable status.High Mountain Asia exhibited the lowest rate of area shrinkage and mass loss among glaciers located at low and middle latitudes,and a slower rate of mass loss compared with the global average.Glaciers in the Tropical Andes exhibited the fastest rate of glacier area shrinkage(—1.6%per year),whereas Antarctic and Subantarctic glaciers showed the lowest rate(—0.11%per year).For mass balance,the most negative occurred at Southern Andes(—0.81 m w.e.per year),followed by Alaska(-0.74 m w.e.per year).Only the Antarctic and Subantarctic experienced small mass gain(0.04 m w.e.per year).High levels of correlation are found between the rates of glacier retreat and annual average temperature and annual total precipitation instead of their trends.The variability of the surface climate conditions in the glacier environment plays a key role in driving these regional differences in global glacier retreat.

Interdecadal fluctuation of dry and wet climate boundaries in China in the past 50 years

Based on the mean yearly precipitation and the total yearly evaporation data of 295 meteorological stations in China in 1951-1999, the aridity index is calculated in this paper. According to the aridity index, the climatic regions in China are classified into three types, namely, arid region, semi-arid region and humid region. Dry and wet climate boundaries in China fluctuate markedly and differentiate greatly in each region in the past 50 years. The fluctuation amplitudes are 20-400 km in Northeast China, 40-400 km in North China, 30-350 km in the eastern part of Northwest China and 40-370 km in Southwest China. Before the 1980s (including 1980), the climate tended to be dry in Northeast China and North China, to be wet in the eastern part of Northwest China and very wet in Southwest China. Since the 1990s there have been dry signs in Southwest China, the eastern part of Northwest China and North China. The climate becomes wetter in Northeast China. Semi-arid region is the transitional zone between humid and arid regions, the monsoon edge belt in China, and the susceptible region of environmental evolution. At the end of the 1960s dry and wet climate in China witnessed abrupt changes, changing wetness into dryness. Dry and wet climate boundaries show the fluctuation characteristics of the whole shifts and the opposite fluctuations of eastward, westward, southward and northward directions. The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations of climate have distinctive interdecadal features.

Vulnerability of mountain glaciers in China to climate change

Mountain glaciers in China are an important water source for both China and adjoining countries, and therefore their adaptation to glacier change is crucial in relation to maintaining populations. This study aims to improve our understanding of glacial vulnerability to climate change to establish adaptation strategies. A glacial numerical model is developed using spatial principle component analysis （SPCA） supported by remote sensing （RS） and geographical information system （GIS） technologies. The model contains nine factors--slope, aspect, hillshade, elevation a.s.l., air temperature, precipitation, glacial area change percentage, glacial type and glacial area, describing topography, climate, and glacier characteristics. The vulnerability of glaciers to climate change is evaluated during the period of 1961-2007 on a regional scale, and in the 2030s and 2050s based on projections of air temperature and precipitation changes under the IPCC RCP6.0 scenario and of glacier change in the 21st century. Glacial vulnerability is graded into five levels： potential, light, medial, heavy, and very heavy, using natural breaks classification （NBC）. The spatial distribution of glacial vulnerability and its temporal changes in the 21st century for the RCP6.0 scenario are analyzed, and the factors influencing vulnerability are discussed. Results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and 41.2% of glacial areas fall into the levels of heavy and very heavy vulnerability in the period 1961-2007. This is mainly explained by topographical exposure and the high sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Trends of glacial vulnerability are projected to decline in the 2030s and 2050s, but a declining trend is still high in some regions. In addition to topographical factors, variation in precipitation in the 2030s and 2050s is found to be crucial.

Spatial variation of stable isotopes in different waters during melt season in the Laohugou Glacial Catchment, Shule River basin

To evaluate isotopic tracers at natural abundances by providing basic isotope data of the hydrological investigations and assessing the impacts of different factors on the water cycle, a total of 197 water samples were collected from the Laohugou Glacial catchment in the Shule River basin northwestern China during the 2013 ablation seasons and analyzed their H- and O-isotope composition. The results showed that the isotopic composition of precipitation in the Qilianshan Station in the Laohugou Glacial catchment was remarkable variability. Correspondingly, a higher slope of δ180-δD diagram, with an average of 8.74, is obtained based on the precipitation samples collected on the Glacier No.la, mainly attributed to the lower temperature on the glacier surface. Because of percolation and elution, the bottom of the firn the isotopic composition at is nearly steady. The 6180 /altitude gradients for precipitation and melt water were -o.37%o/100 m and -o.34%o/100 m, respectively Exposed to the air and influenced by strong ablation and evaporation, the isotopic values and the 6180 vs 6D diagram of the glacial surface ice show no altitudinal effect, indicating that glacier ice has the similar origins with the firn. The variation of isotopic composition in the melt water, varying from -l0.7‰ to -16.9‰ （8180） and from -61.1%o to -122.1%o （6D） indicates the recharging of snowmelt and glacial ice melt water produced at different altitudes. With a mean value of -13.3‰ for 8180 and -89.7‰ for 8D, the isotopic composition of the stream water is much closer to the melt water, indicating that stream water is mainly recharged by the ablation water. Our results of the stable isotopic compositions in natural water in the Laohugou Glacial catchment indicate the fractionations and the smoothing fluctuations of the stable isotopes during evaporation, infiltration and mixture.

Regimes of Runoff Components on the Debris-covered Koxkar Glacier in Western China

By using a degree-day based distributed hydrological model, regimes of glacial runoff from the Koxkar glacier during 2007-2011 are simulated, and variations and characteristics of major hydrological components are discussed. The results show that the meltwater runoff contributes 67.4%, of the proglacial discharge, out of which snowmelt, clean ice melting, buried-ice ablation and ice-cliff backwasting account for 22.4%, 21.9%, 17.9% and 5.3% of the total melt runoff, respectively. Rainfall runoff is significant in mid-latitude glacierized mountain areas like Tianshan and Karakorum. In the Koxkar glacier catchment, about 11.5% of stream water is initiated from liquid precipitation. Spatial distributions for each glacial runoff component reveal the importance of climatic gradients, local topography and morphology on glacial runoff generation, and temporal variations of these components is closely related to the annual cycle of catchment meteorology and glacier storage. Four stages are recognized in the seasonal variations of glacier storage, reflecting changes in meltwater yields, meteorological conditions and drainage systems in the annual hydrological cycle.

Role of permafrost in resilience of social-ecological system and its spatio-temporal dynamics in the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

Permafrost is one of the key components of terrestrial ecosystem in cold regions. In the context of climate change, few studies have investigated resilience of social ecological system(SER) from the perspective of permafrost that restricts the hydrothermal condition of alpine grassland ecosystem. In this paper, based on the structural dynamics, we developed the numerical model for the SER in the permafrost regions of the source of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics and sensitivity of the SER, and estimated the effect of permafrost change on the SER. The results indicate that: 1) the SER has an increasing trend, especially after 1997, which is the joint effect of precipitation, temperature, NPP and ecological conservation projects; 2) the SER shows the spatial feature of high in southeast and low in northwest,which is consistent with the variation trends of high southeast and low northwest for the precipitation, temperature and NPP, and low southeast and high northwest for the altitude; 3) the high sensitive regions of SER to the permafrost change have gradually transited from the island distribution to zonal and planar distribution since 1980, moreover, the sensitive degree has gradually reduced; relatively, the sensitivity has high value in the north and south, and low value in the south and east; 4) the thickness of permafrost active layer shows a highly negative correlation with the SER. The contribution rate of permafrost change to the SER is-4.3%, that is, once the thickness of permafrost active layer increases 1 unit, the SER would decrease 0.04 units.

冰冻圈资源可持续利用探讨

冰冻圈资源是寒区旱区社会经济发展的重要物质基础,在气候变化背景下受到了深刻的影响。在人类需求日益增长、冰冻圈资源稀缺性不断加剧的情况下,如何妥善开发利用冰冻圈资源已成为保证区域可持续发展的核心问题之一。基于"资源—资产—资本"视角的冰冻圈资源可持续利用路径为这一问题提供了新的思路,探讨了以资源资产化、资产资本化为核心的冰冻圈资源运营管理过程,并基于这一视角进行了冰冻圈服务过程的讨论,分析了中国冰冻圈流量资产效用潜力空间格局与三种潜力之间的协调程度。结果表明,东北地区大部、新疆自治区西部与藏南地区为人口与经济效用高等级流域聚集区,华北、东北、新疆西部、藏南及青藏高原东缘等地区为高潜力协调度流域聚集区。这种基于"人口-经济-生态"三大系统的效用潜力识别,有利于冰冻圈资源"提质"与"增效"两个目标的达成,进而促进冰冻圈资源可持续利用的实现。

Models and measurements of seven years of evapotranspiration on a high elevation site on the Central Tibetan Plateau

Evapotrantaspiration is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle but few ground observatories for the Tibetan Plateau exist.In this study,we present lysimeter measurements from the growing season during seven years at a remote field location on the Tibetan Plateau.The measurements show rates between 2.5 and 3 mm·d-1 during the warmer months from June to August,dropping to 2 to 2.5 mm·d-1 in September.This results in a total volume of evapotranspiration of approximately 300 mm·yr-1 for the months from June to September.The inter-daily variability is however large,and comparison to meteorological variables suggest that this is largely driven by radiation and humidity.Data for a single season from a nearby flux tower allows us to compare the two common measurement methods for evapotranspiration in the field,showing an overall good agreement between the approaches.We also tested commonly applied models used to estimate evapotranspiration rates,namely the FAO-PenmanMonteith(PM) and the Priestly-Taylor(PT) model,which both make use of radiation data as well as the simpler Hargreaves-Samani(HS) and Rohwer(R)models which only need air temperature and wind speed as input.The most data intensive model(PM)has the lowest root mean square error(RMSE)(1.36 mm·d-1) and the mean bias error(MBE)(-0.05 mm·d-1) and reproduces the daily variability generally well.The much simpler HS model performs slightly worse(1.38 and 0.35 mm·d-1),but fails to reproduce the variability,due to its lack of information of local radiation and humidity data.Our results are in line with large scale estimates of evapotranspiration for the cold and arid region,provide a first long time series of in-situ measurements from a high elevation site and suggest that both the PM and HS models are appropriate when no direct measurements are available.

Seasonal variations of organic carbon and nitrogen in the upper basins of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

The profound impacts exerted by climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau have been documented extensively, but the biogeochemical responses remain poorly understood. This study was aimed at seasonal variations of total organic carbon(TOC) and total organic nitrogen(TON) in stream water at two gauging sections(TTH, ZMD) in the upper basin of Yangtze River(UBYA) and at fourgauging sections(HHY, JM, JG, TNH) in the upper basin of Yellow River(UBYE) in 2013. Results showed that concentrations of TON exhibit higher values in spring and winter and lower values in summer. TOC exhibits higher concentrations in spring or early summer and lower concentrations in autumn or winter. Seasonal variations of TOC and TON fluxes are dominated by water flux. In total, the UBYE and UBYA delivers 55,435 tons C of organic carbon and 9,872 tons N of organic nitrogen to downstream ecosystems in 2013. Although the combined flux ofTOC from UBYA and UBYE is far lower than those from large rivers, their combined yields is higher than, or comparable with, those from some large rivers(e.g. Nile, Orange, Columbia), implying that organic carbon from the Tibetan Plateau may exert a potentially influence on regional and/or global carbon cycles in future warming climate.

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF LOW-LYING PRAIRIE WETLAND IN MIDDLE REACHES OF HEIHE RIVER IN NORTHWEST CHINA

Low-lying prairie wetland, which has characteristics of both grassland and wetland, has irreplaceable ecological functions in inland river basins of Northwest China. Owing to its small-scale distribution, so far, the observation and research on it are rare. The estimation of evapotranspiration is significant to ecological and environmental construction, scientific management of pasture and protection of wetland. For studying the evapotranspiration （ET） of low-lying prairie wetland in the middle reaches of the Heihe River, an inland river, in Northwest China, the automatic weather station in Linze Ecological Experimental Station of Lanzhou University （39°15′ 3″N, 100°03′ 52″ E）, Linze, Gansu Province, was selected as a case study. Based on meteorological data collected, Bowen-Ratio Energy Balance （BREB） method was used to calculate the evapotranspiration （ET） of low-lying prairie wetland. The analysis results showed that in a whole year （September 2003 -August 2004）, the total ET was 611.5mm and mean daily 1.67mm/d. The ET varied with different growing stages. In non-growing stage （NGS）, initial growing stage （IGS）, middle growing stage （MGS） and end growing stage （EGS）, the ET was 0.57, 2.01, 3.82 and 1.49mrrdd, with a percentage of total ET of 18.26%, 9.20%, 61.83% and 10.71% respectively. In March, ET began to increase. But in April, the ET increased most. After that, it increased gradually and got the maximal value in July. From then on, the ET decreased gradually. In September, the ET decreased rapidly. With the ending of growing and the freezing of soil, the ET stopped from the middle of November to February in next year. Hourly ET analysis showed that at 8：00 a.m. （during MGS at 7：00 a.m.）, the evapotranspiration began, at 13：00 p.m. got its maximal value and at 19：00 p.m. （during MGS at 20：00 p.m.）, the evapotranspiration stopped. The intensity of ET in sunny day was much larger than that in cloudy day in the same growing stage.

借贷双方资金集中度对P2P平台成交利率的影响

探讨借贷双方资金集中度对P2P平台成交利率的影响机理。以293家国内P2P网络借贷平台为样本,对各平台借贷双方资金集中度与平台成交利率进行测算。构建借贷双方资金集中度与P2P平台成交利率的联立方程模型,然后运用三阶段最小二乘法对模型参数估计,得到以下结论:借贷双方资金集中度均会对P2P平台成交利率产生负向影响;P2P平台成交利率会对其贷款资金集中度产生正向影响,对其借款资金集中度产生负向影响;P2P平台的资金杠杆越高,其贷款资金集中度越高;出借人数、借款人数分别对P2P平台的贷款资金集中度和借款资金集中度产生负向影响。

长江源多年冻土区地下水氢氧稳定同位素特征及其影响因素

基于长江源区冬克玛底流域2017年6~9月采集的84个地下水样品,分析了地下水稳定同位素特征及其影响因素,讨论了地下水的补给来源.结果表明,研究区多年冻土区地下水δ18O的变化范围为-15. 3‰^-12. 5‰,平均值为-14. 0‰;δD的变化范围为-108. 9‰^-91. 7‰,平均值为-100. 2‰,与当地大气降水相比,地下水较为富集重同位素;地下水线(LG)的斜率和截距均低于全球和局地大气降水线(GMWL和LMWL),表明地下水在接受降水的补给后经历了不同程度的蒸发作用;地下水氘盈余(d-excess)变化范围为4. 9‰~25. 0‰,平均值为11. 6‰,低于大气降水平均氘盈余值;地下水同位素与降水量存在显著的负相关关系,表明大气降水对地下水具有重要的补给作用;不同时期影响地下水同位素的组成和变化因素有所不同,在冻土的冻融前期(气温上升阶段),由于冻土活动层较薄,地下水受气温影响显著.虽然后期气温降低,但冻土活动层厚度依然在增加,此时地下水在土壤中滞留的时间的增加是地下水同位素富集的一个重要因素.结合流域的地形特点、地下水同位素特征及其影响因素,推断降水是地下水的主要补给来源.研究结果能够为长江源多年冻土区的水循环过程提供科学依据.

长江源区降水氢氧稳定同位素特征及水汽来源

基于长江源区冬克玛底流域2014年5～10月连续采集的73个降水同位素数据,结合相关气象资料,分析了降水中δD、δ^(18)O及氘盈余(d-excess)变化特征,讨论了δ^(18)O与气温、降水量的关系,利用HYSPLIT模型追踪流域降水的水汽来源并估算不同水汽来源对降水量的贡献比例.结果表明:研究区降水中δ^(18)O和δD变化范围分别为-26.5‰～1.9‰和-195.2‰～34.0‰,且δ^(18)O和δD值随时间变化波动较大,与不同来源水汽输送有直接的关系;区域降水线的斜率和截距均大于全球大气降水线,与青藏高原北侧地区的降水线相近;不同降水类型中的δ^(18)O和δD的关系差异显著,主要与水汽来源和形成降水时的气象条件有关;由于受局地蒸发水汽及水汽输送过程影响,流域大气降水d-excess值整体上相对偏大;研究区的降水同位素存在显著的降水量效应,但不存在温度效应,表明降水量对大气降水中稳定同位素含量的控制作用更强;水汽来源轨迹表明,研究区大气降水水汽来源主要有西南季风携带的海洋性水汽、局地蒸发水汽及西风输送水汽,对降水量的贡献比例分别为43%、36%和21%.该研究结果有助于进一步了解长江源头区冬克玛底流域的大气环流特征及水循环过程.

长江源区大气降水化学特征及离子来源

基于长江源区冬克玛底流域2013年6~9月采集的64个降水样品,分析了降水的pH值、电导率及离子浓度特征,并应用因子分析、相关分析、富集因子及后向轨迹法,讨论了降水离子主要来源及其与大气环流的联系.结果表明,长江源区冬克玛底流域降水pH值变化范围为5. 26~9. 25,加权平均值为6. 70;电导率变化范围为0. 23~28. 70μS·cm-1,加权平均值为3. 45μS·cm-1,低于瓦里关全球大气本底站降水电导率;总离子浓度变化范围为7. 0~376. 9μeq·L-1,平均总浓度仅为40. 8μeq·L-1;各离子加权平均浓度大小顺序为:HCO3-> NH4+> Ca2+> NO3-> SO42-> Na+> Cl-> K+> Mg2+;HCO3-、NH4+、Ca2+和NO3-是降水中的主要离子,占总离子浓度的74. 75%;相对酸度(FA)分析表明,有97. 8%的降水酸度被碱性物质中和,同时中和因子(NF)分析表明NH4+和Ca2+对降水酸性的中和起主导作用;研究区降水离子主要来自陆源的贡献,而来自海源的输入则相对较少;结合气团的后向轨迹分析发现,不同来源的总离子浓度差异明显,其加权平均浓度大小顺序为:局地源>西风源>季风源,表明不同的大气环流背景和气团来源对降水化学组成具有重要影响.长江源区大气降水受人类活动影响较小,其降水化学特征一定程度上可以代表偏远地区的大气质量状况和本底值.研究结果能够为长江源区水质的保护以及为评估人类活动对该区域大气环境的影响提供科学依据.

n overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes,so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing.Nevertheless,climate change is more or less affecting society'sfunctions at different scales,including both individuals and communities.In this review,we discuss the relationship between society and climatechange in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages.The relationship as well as the current spatialpattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized.The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to thespatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China.To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past,we advocategreater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption,poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions(Nbs).That could providedecision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.

Assessments on surface water resources and their vulnerability and adaptability in China

A clear understanding of the changes of water resources under the background of environmental changes is of great significance for scientific management and utilization of water resources in China.This study systematically analyzed the spatialetemporal variations of surface water resources in China since 2000.Water vulnerability in current(2010s)and its trends from 2000 to late-2010s in different regions of China were also summarized.In addition,the correspondingly adaptive measures to counter regional risks to water resources were proposed.We concluded that the runoff of major rivers had been decreasing in eastern China and increasing in western China during 2000-2018.In the arid area of Northwest China,the alpine runoff has shown an overall upward trend since the late-1990s/early-2000s,with a 10%-25% increase caused by the increase of glacial meltwater and precipitation.While the runoff of each hydrological station in the 2000s-2010s was 34.7% lower than that in the 1950se2010s on average.The increases in precipitation and glacial meltwater with global warming caused a rapid expansion of lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Xinjiang,thus leading to an increase in total area and water quantity of lakes in China from 1995 to 2015.The mean contribution rates of climate change and human activity to runoff change in river basins of China were 53.5% and 46.5%,respectively,during the period of 2000-2010s.The driving factor of runoff change in many river basins has gradually changed from climate change(1950s-2000)to human activity(2000-2018).During 2000-2018,the contributions of human activities to runoff change were 50%-80% in major rivers of eastern China.The vulnerability in most areas of Northwest China and North China is generally high,with the vulnerability index greater than 0.6.Comparatively,in Northeast,East,South,and Central China,it is lower or not vulnerable.In Southwest China,the vulnerability varies greatly with Yunnan and Sichuan relatively low while Chongqing and Guizhou relatively high.The precipitation increase,the application of water-saving technology,the establishment of flood control and drought relief engineering facilities,and the introduction of relevant policies and measures have helped to gradually reduce the vulnerability of water resources in most areas of North and Northwest China(except Xinjiang)from 2000 to 2010s.Water vulnerability has been increasing in southern China,caused by climate change and the development of industry and agriculture,which increases water resource exposure since 2000.Based on the typical risk factors and vulnerability characteristics of water resources in different regions,this study proposed some targeted adaptive measures correspondingly so as to scientifically deal with the problems of surface water resources in China.

天山科其喀尔冰川区复杂下垫面CO2通量贡献区分析

大气湍流交换过程中CO2有效源（汇）区域即CO2通量贡献区,在冰川作用区不仅受到水化学侵蚀强度的影响,还受区域微气候的影响,另外,动态的下垫面和复杂地形也增加了实际监测的不确定性。为了评估冰川区CO2通量监测结果的空间代表性,在西天山南坡科其喀尔冰川表碛区利用涡度协方差观测系统进行观测,同时,结合基于KM足迹模型基础上开发的ART Footprint Tool足迹软件对通量贡献区进行分析,结果表明：（1）积雪积累期主风向以NW为主,风向频率占53.31%;积雪消融期和冰川消融初期NW向主风减少,偏北的NNW风逐渐增多,但冰川消融峰期后又逐渐过渡为NW风向。（2）积雪积累期雪冰融水几乎消失,但大气CO2通量平均为-0.07 g·m^-2·d^-1,尤其是白天为-0.88 g·m^-2·d^-1,仍呈没收现象,是由于白天较强辐射下,少量积雪融水引起可溶性物质淋溶过程中水化学反应没收大气CO2所致;而夜间冰川消融峰期CO2通量值平均为0.33 g·m^-2·d^-1,呈释放CO2现象,这可能与夜间区域降温及降水过程中溶解的CO2因地表蒸发返回大气所致。（3）通量贡献率80%以上的各期0.5 h数据占比依次为：积雪积累期（95.80%）〉积雪消融期（93.28%）〉冰川消融峰期（86.13%）〉冰川消融初期（81.88%）,而足迹最远点分布距离顺序与前者几乎相反,但均分布在主风向下的冰川中流线上,说明对CO2通量监测值有显著影响的贡献区比较集中,也意味着冰川末端及两侧山脊草地CO2通量变化的影响可以忽略。（4）白天在大气稳态条件下,贡献区解释的CO2通量为（78.55±2.08）%,略高于夜间的（77.72±1.41）%,但显著低于非稳定条件下白天（89.86±0.22）%和夜间（89.45±0.57）%的解释结果,进一步验证了CO2通量贡献区比较集中。