A stochastic SIR epidemic dynamic model with distributed-time-delay, for a two-scale dynamic population is derived. The distributed time delay is the varying naturally acquired immunity period of the removal class of ...A stochastic SIR epidemic dynamic model with distributed-time-delay, for a two-scale dynamic population is derived. The distributed time delay is the varying naturally acquired immunity period of the removal class of individuals who have recovered from the infection, and have acquired natural immunity to the disease. We investigate the stochastic asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium of the epidemic dynamic model, and verify the impact on the eradication of the disease.展开更多
This paper presents a nonlinear family of stochastic SEIRS models for diseases such as malaria in a highly random environment with noises from the disease transmission and natural death rates,and also from the random ...This paper presents a nonlinear family of stochastic SEIRS models for diseases such as malaria in a highly random environment with noises from the disease transmission and natural death rates,and also from the random delays of the incubation and immunity periods.Improved analytical methods and local martingale characterizations are applied to find conditions for the disease to persist near an endemic steady state,and also for the disease to remain permanently in the system over time.Moreover,the ergodic stationary distribution for the stochastic process describing the disease dynamics is defined,and the statistical characteristics of the distribution are given mumerically.The results of this study show that the disease will persist and become permanent in the system,regardless of(1)whether the noises are from the discase transmission rate and/or from the natural death rates or(2)whether the delays in the system are constant or random for individuals in the system.Furthermore,it is shown that"weak"noise is associated with the existence of an endemic stationary distribution for the disease,while"strong"noise is associated with extinction of the population over time.Numerical simulation examples for Plasnodiurr vitar malaria are given.展开更多
文摘A stochastic SIR epidemic dynamic model with distributed-time-delay, for a two-scale dynamic population is derived. The distributed time delay is the varying naturally acquired immunity period of the removal class of individuals who have recovered from the infection, and have acquired natural immunity to the disease. We investigate the stochastic asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium of the epidemic dynamic model, and verify the impact on the eradication of the disease.
文摘This paper presents a nonlinear family of stochastic SEIRS models for diseases such as malaria in a highly random environment with noises from the disease transmission and natural death rates,and also from the random delays of the incubation and immunity periods.Improved analytical methods and local martingale characterizations are applied to find conditions for the disease to persist near an endemic steady state,and also for the disease to remain permanently in the system over time.Moreover,the ergodic stationary distribution for the stochastic process describing the disease dynamics is defined,and the statistical characteristics of the distribution are given mumerically.The results of this study show that the disease will persist and become permanent in the system,regardless of(1)whether the noises are from the discase transmission rate and/or from the natural death rates or(2)whether the delays in the system are constant or random for individuals in the system.Furthermore,it is shown that"weak"noise is associated with the existence of an endemic stationary distribution for the disease,while"strong"noise is associated with extinction of the population over time.Numerical simulation examples for Plasnodiurr vitar malaria are given.
