To evaluate the reliability of a landslide in a reservoir, the universal transfer coefficient method, which is popularized by the Chinese standard, is adopted as performance function in this study for: (1) common d...To evaluate the reliability of a landslide in a reservoir, the universal transfer coefficient method, which is popularized by the Chinese standard, is adopted as performance function in this study for: (1) common deterministic method stability evaluation; (2) reliability evaluation based on a Monte Carlo method; (3) comparison of landslide reliability under different water levels and under different correlation coefficients between soil shear strength parameters (c, Φ), respectively with mean, standard deviation, reliability coefficient and failure probability. This article uses the Bazimen (八字门) landslide, which is located at the outlet of Xiangxi (香溪) River in the Three Gorges Reservoir, as an example to evaluate its stability and reliability under different water levels with two-dimensional deterministic and probabilistic methods. With the assumption that constant mean and normal distributed shear strength parameters (c, Φ), correlation coefficient c, Φ=-1 based reliability analysis, compared with c, Φ=0 and 1, indicates obviously more increase of reliability index and lower standard deviation as water levels rise. To the case of a certain water level, c, Φ=-1 does not have constantly positive or negative effects on landslide reliability compared with c, Φ=0 or 1, but is associated with water level. Whereas the safety factor Fs by deterministic method, which is almost the same value as corresponding mean of safety factor from probabilistic analysis, will increase slightly as water level increases.展开更多
In 2003, the Three Gorges Project (TGP, China), currently the world's largest hydroelectric power plant by total capacity, went into operation. Due to large-scale impoundment of the Yangtze River and its tributarie...In 2003, the Three Gorges Project (TGP, China), currently the world's largest hydroelectric power plant by total capacity, went into operation. Due to large-scale impoundment of the Yangtze River and its tributaries and also due to resettlement, extensive environmental impacts like land use change and increase of geohazards are associated with the TGP. Within the Yangtze Project, we investigate these effects for the Xiangxi (香溪) catchment which is part of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The aim of this study is to evaluate the susceptibility for mass movement within the Xiangxi River backwater area using geographic information system (GIS). We used existing mass movements and the conditioning factors (geology, elevation, slope, curvature, land use, and land use change) for analyzing mass movement susceptibility. Mass movements and geology were mapped in the field to establish a mass movement inventory and a geological map. Land use and digital elevation model (DEM) were obtained from remote-sensing data. We determined the relation between mass movements and the conditioning factors by using the frequency ratio method and found strong relation between mass movements and both natural and human-influenced conditioning factors.展开更多
In the past decades, the necessity for detailed earthquake microzonation studies was recognized worldwide. Therefore, different approaches were established and applied. Unfortunately, the majority of these approaches ...In the past decades, the necessity for detailed earthquake microzonation studies was recognized worldwide. Therefore, different approaches were established and applied. Unfortunately, the majority of these approaches are not based on pre-existing field data but require extensive seismic measurements and investigations. Furthermore, these approaches incorporate non-linearity inadequately and cannot take groundwater level changes into account. For this purpose, notably numerical models are most suitable. These models require a good knowledge of the local geological conditions (especially of the uppermost unconsolidated units), information about the geotechnical parameters of these units, and a hydrogeological model of the investigated area. Most of this information can be obtained from geotechnical investigations and surveys that have already been carried out in most densely populated areas. In a case study for Bucharest City, non-linear analyses were performed using software that is based on the visco-hypoplastic constitutive law. The results indicate that groundwater level changes have an important influence on duration and amplitude of ground response and thus should be considered for seismic microzonation studies. This approach ean be used to display site effects and to identify different microzones taking different earthquake magnitudes and groundwater levels into account.展开更多
The Kashmir earthquake 2005 (magnitude MW 7.6) triggered thousands of mass move-ments in northern Pakistan. These mass movements were mainly rock falls, debris falls, rockslides and rock avalanches. The mass movemen...The Kashmir earthquake 2005 (magnitude MW 7.6) triggered thousands of mass move-ments in northern Pakistan. These mass movements were mainly rock falls, debris falls, rockslides and rock avalanches. The mass movements vary in size from a few hundred cubic meters up to about 100 million cubic meters estimated for the Hattian Bala rock avalanche, the biggest one associated with this earthquake. This mass movement, which moved in southeastern direction, created two natural dams on the valley bottom and blocked the water ways of the Karli and Tung tributaries of the Jhelum River. Topographic, lithologic and structural information were used to investigate the Hattian Bala rock ava-lanche. Geotechnical and structural maps were prepared to understand relationship between geology and structure of Hattian Bala rock avalanche. The geometry and failure mode of this rock avalanche are controlled by southeast plunging synclinal structures, lithology, a bedding parallel slip surface and a pre-existing old rockslide. The structural map shows that the mass movement failure was due to Danna and Dandbeh synclinal structures plunging southeast on the hanging wall block of the reacti-vated Muzaffarabad fault. The slip surface of the mass movement followed the bedding planes along mudstone, claystone and sandstone surfaces. The mass movement perfectly followed the pre-existing synclinal morphology of the Danna and Dandbeh synclines.展开更多
基金supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
文摘To evaluate the reliability of a landslide in a reservoir, the universal transfer coefficient method, which is popularized by the Chinese standard, is adopted as performance function in this study for: (1) common deterministic method stability evaluation; (2) reliability evaluation based on a Monte Carlo method; (3) comparison of landslide reliability under different water levels and under different correlation coefficients between soil shear strength parameters (c, Φ), respectively with mean, standard deviation, reliability coefficient and failure probability. This article uses the Bazimen (八字门) landslide, which is located at the outlet of Xiangxi (香溪) River in the Three Gorges Reservoir, as an example to evaluate its stability and reliability under different water levels with two-dimensional deterministic and probabilistic methods. With the assumption that constant mean and normal distributed shear strength parameters (c, Φ), correlation coefficient c, Φ=-1 based reliability analysis, compared with c, Φ=0 and 1, indicates obviously more increase of reliability index and lower standard deviation as water levels rise. To the case of a certain water level, c, Φ=-1 does not have constantly positive or negative effects on landslide reliability compared with c, Φ=0 or 1, but is associated with water level. Whereas the safety factor Fs by deterministic method, which is almost the same value as corresponding mean of safety factor from probabilistic analysis, will increase slightly as water level increases.
基金supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
文摘In 2003, the Three Gorges Project (TGP, China), currently the world's largest hydroelectric power plant by total capacity, went into operation. Due to large-scale impoundment of the Yangtze River and its tributaries and also due to resettlement, extensive environmental impacts like land use change and increase of geohazards are associated with the TGP. Within the Yangtze Project, we investigate these effects for the Xiangxi (香溪) catchment which is part of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The aim of this study is to evaluate the susceptibility for mass movement within the Xiangxi River backwater area using geographic information system (GIS). We used existing mass movements and the conditioning factors (geology, elevation, slope, curvature, land use, and land use change) for analyzing mass movement susceptibility. Mass movements and geology were mapped in the field to establish a mass movement inventory and a geological map. Land use and digital elevation model (DEM) were obtained from remote-sensing data. We determined the relation between mass movements and the conditioning factors by using the frequency ratio method and found strong relation between mass movements and both natural and human-influenced conditioning factors.
基金supported by the German Research Foundation(DFG), the State of Baden-Württemberg, and the University(TH) of Karlsruhe
文摘In the past decades, the necessity for detailed earthquake microzonation studies was recognized worldwide. Therefore, different approaches were established and applied. Unfortunately, the majority of these approaches are not based on pre-existing field data but require extensive seismic measurements and investigations. Furthermore, these approaches incorporate non-linearity inadequately and cannot take groundwater level changes into account. For this purpose, notably numerical models are most suitable. These models require a good knowledge of the local geological conditions (especially of the uppermost unconsolidated units), information about the geotechnical parameters of these units, and a hydrogeological model of the investigated area. Most of this information can be obtained from geotechnical investigations and surveys that have already been carried out in most densely populated areas. In a case study for Bucharest City, non-linear analyses were performed using software that is based on the visco-hypoplastic constitutive law. The results indicate that groundwater level changes have an important influence on duration and amplitude of ground response and thus should be considered for seismic microzonation studies. This approach ean be used to display site effects and to identify different microzones taking different earthquake magnitudes and groundwater levels into account.
基金supported by the University of Azad Jammuand Kashmir Muzaffarabad, Pakistan
文摘The Kashmir earthquake 2005 (magnitude MW 7.6) triggered thousands of mass move-ments in northern Pakistan. These mass movements were mainly rock falls, debris falls, rockslides and rock avalanches. The mass movements vary in size from a few hundred cubic meters up to about 100 million cubic meters estimated for the Hattian Bala rock avalanche, the biggest one associated with this earthquake. This mass movement, which moved in southeastern direction, created two natural dams on the valley bottom and blocked the water ways of the Karli and Tung tributaries of the Jhelum River. Topographic, lithologic and structural information were used to investigate the Hattian Bala rock ava-lanche. Geotechnical and structural maps were prepared to understand relationship between geology and structure of Hattian Bala rock avalanche. The geometry and failure mode of this rock avalanche are controlled by southeast plunging synclinal structures, lithology, a bedding parallel slip surface and a pre-existing old rockslide. The structural map shows that the mass movement failure was due to Danna and Dandbeh synclinal structures plunging southeast on the hanging wall block of the reacti-vated Muzaffarabad fault. The slip surface of the mass movement followed the bedding planes along mudstone, claystone and sandstone surfaces. The mass movement perfectly followed the pre-existing synclinal morphology of the Danna and Dandbeh synclines.