Identifying the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake:a review

The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area. To apply this general procedure, we need two important elements： first, to know when we should start the analysis, i.e., set the natural time equal to zero. This is the time at which the system enters the critical stage. Second a reliable estimation of the candidate epicentral area. If geoelectrical measurements are taken and the VAN method （after the initials of the three researchers Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos）is applied, both these elements become available upon the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals （SES） activity, because its initiation marks the time when the system enters the critical stage, and in addition the SES data enable the determination of the epicentral area of the impending mainshock. On the other hand, if geoelectrical data are lacking, we make use of the following two recent findings by means of natural time analysis： First, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity in a large area exhibit a minimum a few months before a major earthquake almost simultaneously with the initiation of an SES activity. Second, a spatiotemporal study of this minimum unveils an estimate of the epicentral area of the impending major earthquake. Two examples are given that refer to the strongest earthquakes that occurred in Greece and Japan during the last 3 decades, i.e., the Mw6.9 earthquake in southwestern Greece on 14 February 2008 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan on 11 March 2011.

Mw9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan:precursors uncovered by natural time analysis

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal （SES） activity of the VAN method （from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos） initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.

Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas

The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos （VAN） method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals （SES）. Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending mainshock:a very recent case

The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory seismic electric signals（SES） activity is reviewed. Here, we report the application of this procedure to an MW5.4 mainshock that occurred in Greece on 17 November 2014. This mainshock（which is pretty rare since it is the strongest in that area for more than half a century） was preceded by an SES activity recorded on 27 July 2014, and the results of the natural time analysis reveal that the system approached the critical point（mainshock occurrence） early in the morning on 15 November 2014.