Influences of Rainfall and Temperature on Malaria Endemicity in Cameroon: Emphasis on Bonaberi District

Relating the influence of climate on the occurrence of a vector-borne disease like malaria quantitatively is quite challenging. To better understand the disease endemicity, the effects of climate variables on the distribution of malaria in Cameroon are studied over space and time, with emphasis on the Bonaberi district. Meteorological monitoring can lead to proactive control. The government of Cameroon, through the National Control Malaria Program, has put in place strategies to control and stop the spread of the disease. This study is therefore geared towards assessing the yearly parasite ratio of malaria over the ten regions of Cameroon and to work out the influence of rainfall and temperature on disease endemicity with emphasis on a district of Douala. The model used is the VECTRI model, which shows the dynamic link between climatic variables and malaria transmission. The parasite ratio observed and simulated showed a maximum correlation of 0.75 in 2015. A positive relationship between temperature, rainfall and malaria is revealed in this study but Bonaberi has malaria all year round. The West region is the least affected by malaria. We recommend that For the VECTRI model to perform better, the population could be incorporated in the model.

Influence of Sea Level Pressure on Inter-Annual Rainfall Variability in Northern Senegal in the Context of Climate Change

This study examines the inter-annual variability of rainfall and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) over west Africa based on analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis respectively. An interconnection is found in this region, between Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly (over Azores and St. Helena High) and monthly mean precipitation during summer (June to September: JJAS). We also found that over northern Senegal (15°N - 17°N;17°W - 13°W) the SLP to the north is strong;the wind converges at 200 hPa corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) the rotational wind 700 hPa (corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) coming from the north-east is negative. In this region, the precipitation is related to the SLP to the north with the opposite sign. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) of SLP is also presented, including the mean spectrum of precipitation and pressures to the north (15°N - 40°N and 50°W - 25°W) and south (40°S - 10°S and 40°W - 0°E). The dominant EOF of Sea Level Pressures north and south of the Atlantic Ocean for GPCP represents about 62.2% and 69.4% of the variance, respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the north account for 24.0% and 6.5% respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the south represent 12.5% and 8.9% respectively. Wet years in the north of Senegal were associated with anomalous low-pressure areas over the north Atlantic Ocean as opposed to the dry years which exhibited an anomalous high-pressure area in the same region. On the other hand, over the South Atlantic, an opposition is noted. The wavelet analysis method is applied to the SLP showings to the north, south and precipitation in our study area. The indices prove to be very consistent, especially during intervals of high variance.

Interannual Variability of Rainfall over the West Africa Sahel

Interannual variability of the precipitation over West Africa Sahel is analyzed based on 32 years (1979-2010) from monthly and daily database of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). In this region, we found that there is a link between the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) and the daily means of the precipitation in the summer, unseasonal rains can occur in the transition seasons and even in the heart of the dry season. Rainfall is the most important element for agro-pastoral activities in this region. The 850-hPa wind and wind divergence structure show a maximum convection over Mountain region (Fouta-Djalon and Mont-Cameroon) which corresponds to the high precipitation and OLR observed in these regions. The trend and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the precipitation are presented, including the mid-July variability of the precipitation. The dominant EOF of GPCP precipitation accounts for around 25.3% of the variance with slightly large amplitude in the north while relatively small in the equatorial band respectively. The second and third EOF which accounts for 20.5% and 14%, describes a longitudinal contrast with a zonal gradient.