The majority of tornado fatalities occur during severe thunderstorm occurrences that produce a large number of tornadoes,termed tornado outbreaks.This study used extreme value theory to estimate the impact of tornado ...The majority of tornado fatalities occur during severe thunderstorm occurrences that produce a large number of tornadoes,termed tornado outbreaks.This study used extreme value theory to estimate the impact of tornado outbreaks on fatalities while accounting for climate and demographic factors.The findings indicate that the number of fatalities increases with the increase of tornado outbreaks.Additionally,this study undertook a counterfactual analysis to determine what would have been the probability of a tornado outbreak under various climatic and demographic scenarios.The results of the counterfactual study indicate that the likelihood of increased mortality increases as the population forecast grows.Intensified El Niño events,on the other hand,reduce the likelihood of further fatalities.La Niña events are expected to increase probability of fatalities.展开更多
The Dominican Republic is highly exposed to adverse natural events that put the country at risk of losing hard-won economic, social, and environmental gains due to the impacts of disasters. This study used monthly nig...The Dominican Republic is highly exposed to adverse natural events that put the country at risk of losing hard-won economic, social, and environmental gains due to the impacts of disasters. This study used monthly nightlight composites in conjunction with a wind field model to econometrically estimate the impact of tropical cyclones on local economic activity in the Dominican Republic since 1992. It was found that the negative impact of storms lasts up to 15 months after a strike, with the largest effect observed after 9 months. Translating the reduction in nightlight intensity into monetary losses by relating it to quarterly gross domestic product(GDP) suggests that on average the storms reduced GDP by about USD 1.1 billion(4.5% of GDP 2000 and 1.5% of GDP 2016).展开更多
This article demonstrates the construction of earthquake and volcano damage indices using publicly available remote sensing sources and data on the physical characteristics of events.For earthquakes we use peak ground...This article demonstrates the construction of earthquake and volcano damage indices using publicly available remote sensing sources and data on the physical characteristics of events.For earthquakes we use peak ground motion maps in conjunction with building type fragility curves to construct a local damage indicator.For volcanoes we employ volcanic ash data as a proxy for local damages.Both indices are then spatially aggregated by taking local economic exposure into account by assessing nightlight intensity derived from satellite images.We demonstrate the use of these indices with a case study of Indonesia,a country frequently exposed to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.The results show that the indices capture the areas with the highest damage,and we provide overviews of the modeled aggregated damage for all provinces and districts in Indonesia for the time period 2004 to 2014.The indices were constructed using a combination of software programs—ArcGIS/Python,Matlab,and Stata.We also outline what potential freeware alternatives exist.Finally,for each index we highlight the assumptions and limitations that a potential practitioner needs to be aware of.展开更多
Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it...Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it has a devastating impact on capital and labor, but at the same time provides an opportunity to upgrade capital and increase labor demand and training opportunities, thereby potentially boosting production efficiency. We studied the impact of natural hazard-induced disasters on countries’ production efficiency, using the case study of hurricanes in the Caribbean. To this end we built a country-specific,time-varying data set of hurricane damage and national output and input indicators for 17 Caribbean countries for the period 1940–2014. Our results, using a stochastic frontier approach, show that there is a short-lived production efficiency boost, and that this can be large for very damaging storms.展开更多
文摘The majority of tornado fatalities occur during severe thunderstorm occurrences that produce a large number of tornadoes,termed tornado outbreaks.This study used extreme value theory to estimate the impact of tornado outbreaks on fatalities while accounting for climate and demographic factors.The findings indicate that the number of fatalities increases with the increase of tornado outbreaks.Additionally,this study undertook a counterfactual analysis to determine what would have been the probability of a tornado outbreak under various climatic and demographic scenarios.The results of the counterfactual study indicate that the likelihood of increased mortality increases as the population forecast grows.Intensified El Niño events,on the other hand,reduce the likelihood of further fatalities.La Niña events are expected to increase probability of fatalities.
文摘The Dominican Republic is highly exposed to adverse natural events that put the country at risk of losing hard-won economic, social, and environmental gains due to the impacts of disasters. This study used monthly nightlight composites in conjunction with a wind field model to econometrically estimate the impact of tropical cyclones on local economic activity in the Dominican Republic since 1992. It was found that the negative impact of storms lasts up to 15 months after a strike, with the largest effect observed after 9 months. Translating the reduction in nightlight intensity into monetary losses by relating it to quarterly gross domestic product(GDP) suggests that on average the storms reduced GDP by about USD 1.1 billion(4.5% of GDP 2000 and 1.5% of GDP 2016).
文摘This article demonstrates the construction of earthquake and volcano damage indices using publicly available remote sensing sources and data on the physical characteristics of events.For earthquakes we use peak ground motion maps in conjunction with building type fragility curves to construct a local damage indicator.For volcanoes we employ volcanic ash data as a proxy for local damages.Both indices are then spatially aggregated by taking local economic exposure into account by assessing nightlight intensity derived from satellite images.We demonstrate the use of these indices with a case study of Indonesia,a country frequently exposed to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.The results show that the indices capture the areas with the highest damage,and we provide overviews of the modeled aggregated damage for all provinces and districts in Indonesia for the time period 2004 to 2014.The indices were constructed using a combination of software programs—ArcGIS/Python,Matlab,and Stata.We also outline what potential freeware alternatives exist.Finally,for each index we highlight the assumptions and limitations that a potential practitioner needs to be aware of.
文摘Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it has a devastating impact on capital and labor, but at the same time provides an opportunity to upgrade capital and increase labor demand and training opportunities, thereby potentially boosting production efficiency. We studied the impact of natural hazard-induced disasters on countries’ production efficiency, using the case study of hurricanes in the Caribbean. To this end we built a country-specific,time-varying data set of hurricane damage and national output and input indicators for 17 Caribbean countries for the period 1940–2014. Our results, using a stochastic frontier approach, show that there is a short-lived production efficiency boost, and that this can be large for very damaging storms.
