Future climate change will affect the environmental fate of hydrophobic organic contaminants(HOCs)and associated human health risks,yet the extent of these effects remains unknown.Here,we couple a high-resolution envi...Future climate change will affect the environmental fate of hydrophobic organic contaminants(HOCs)and associated human health risks,yet the extent of these effects remains unknown.Here,we couple a high-resolution environmental multimedia model with a bioaccumulation model to study the multimedia distribution of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs),a group of HOCs,and assess future PAH-related human health risks under varying climate change scenarios over China at a continental scale.After removing the effects of PAH emission changes,we find that the total PAH concentrations would decrease in the air,freshwater,sediment,soil,and organisms,while the high-molecular-weight PAH would increase in the air with climate warming from 1.5°C to 4°C.Consequently,the multi-pathway exposure human health risks predominately influenced by dietary ingestion are expected to decrease by 1.7%–20.5%,while the respiratory risks are projected to rise by 0.2%–5.8%in the future.However,the persistently high multi-pathway human health risks underscore the need for reducing future PAH emissions by 69%compared with 2009 levels in China.Our study demonstrates the urgency of limiting PAH emissions under future climate change for public health and highlights the importance of including the contribution of dietary ingestion in human health risk assessment.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0605001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52039001,92047303 and 41977359)
文摘Future climate change will affect the environmental fate of hydrophobic organic contaminants(HOCs)and associated human health risks,yet the extent of these effects remains unknown.Here,we couple a high-resolution environmental multimedia model with a bioaccumulation model to study the multimedia distribution of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs),a group of HOCs,and assess future PAH-related human health risks under varying climate change scenarios over China at a continental scale.After removing the effects of PAH emission changes,we find that the total PAH concentrations would decrease in the air,freshwater,sediment,soil,and organisms,while the high-molecular-weight PAH would increase in the air with climate warming from 1.5°C to 4°C.Consequently,the multi-pathway exposure human health risks predominately influenced by dietary ingestion are expected to decrease by 1.7%–20.5%,while the respiratory risks are projected to rise by 0.2%–5.8%in the future.However,the persistently high multi-pathway human health risks underscore the need for reducing future PAH emissions by 69%compared with 2009 levels in China.Our study demonstrates the urgency of limiting PAH emissions under future climate change for public health and highlights the importance of including the contribution of dietary ingestion in human health risk assessment.
