Recent Ebola virus disease(EVD)outbreaks have been limited not only to the interactions between humans but also to the complex interplay of the environment,human and socio-economic factors.Changes in human behaviour a...Recent Ebola virus disease(EVD)outbreaks have been limited not only to the interactions between humans but also to the complex interplay of the environment,human and socio-economic factors.Changes in human behaviour as a result of fear can also affect disease transmission dynamics.In this paper,a compartmental model is used to study the dynamics of EVD incorporating fear and environmental transmission.We formulate a fear dependent contact rate function to measure the rate of person to person,as well as pathogen to person transmissions.The epidemic threshold and the model equilibria are determined and,their stabilities are analysed.The model is validated by fitting it to data from the 2019 and 2020 EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Our results suggest that the fear of death from EVD may reduce the transmission and aid the control of the disease,but it is not sufficient to eradicate the disease.Policymakers need to also implement other control measures such as case finding,media campaigns,Quarantine and increase in the number of beds in the Ebola treatment centers,good laboratory services,safe burials and social mobilisation,to eradicate the disease.展开更多
文摘Recent Ebola virus disease(EVD)outbreaks have been limited not only to the interactions between humans but also to the complex interplay of the environment,human and socio-economic factors.Changes in human behaviour as a result of fear can also affect disease transmission dynamics.In this paper,a compartmental model is used to study the dynamics of EVD incorporating fear and environmental transmission.We formulate a fear dependent contact rate function to measure the rate of person to person,as well as pathogen to person transmissions.The epidemic threshold and the model equilibria are determined and,their stabilities are analysed.The model is validated by fitting it to data from the 2019 and 2020 EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Our results suggest that the fear of death from EVD may reduce the transmission and aid the control of the disease,but it is not sufficient to eradicate the disease.Policymakers need to also implement other control measures such as case finding,media campaigns,Quarantine and increase in the number of beds in the Ebola treatment centers,good laboratory services,safe burials and social mobilisation,to eradicate the disease.
