A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in ...A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in China under the same power generation and CO2 emissions levels.The plant types included pulverized coal(PC),integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC),and natural gas combined cycle(NGCC)plants.We take into account a subsidy policy consistent with the 45Q tax credit of the U.S.,as well as uncertainty factors,such as carbon price,technological progress,CO_(2) geological storage paths,oil price,and electricity price.The results showed that the investment benefit of ordinary NGCC power plants is 93.04 million USD.This provides greater economic advantages than the other two plant types as their investment benefit is negative if the captured CO_(2) was used for enhanced water recovery(EWR),even if 45Q subsidies are provided.Compared with NGCC+CCUS power plants,PC+CCUS and IGCC+CCUS power plants have more advantages in terms of economic benefits and emission reduction.The 45Q subsidy policy reduced the critical carbon price,which determines the decision to invest or not,by 30.14 USDt^(-1) for the PC and IGCC power plants and by 15.24 USDt^(-1) for the NGCC power plants.Nevertheless,only when the subsidy reaches at least 71.84 USDt^(-1) and the period limit is canceled can all three types of power plants be motivated to invest in CCUS and used the capture CO_(2) for EWR.Overall,the government should focus on the application of CCUS in coal-fired power plants(in addition to developing gas power generation),especially when CO_(2) is used for enhanced oil recovery(EOR).The government could introduce fiscal policies,such as 45Q or stronger,to stimulate CCUS technology development in China.展开更多
基金the financial support of National Natural Science Foundation of China(71874193,71503249,71203008,71904014)the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research(CBA2018-02MY-Fan)+2 种基金Huo Yingdong Education Foundation(171072)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.2020YJSNY01,2020SKNY01)the Open Research Project of State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining(China University of Mining and Technology,SKLCRSM19KFA14).
文摘A trinomial tree model based on a real options approach was developed to evaluate the investment decisions on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)retrofitted to the three main types of thermal power plants in China under the same power generation and CO2 emissions levels.The plant types included pulverized coal(PC),integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC),and natural gas combined cycle(NGCC)plants.We take into account a subsidy policy consistent with the 45Q tax credit of the U.S.,as well as uncertainty factors,such as carbon price,technological progress,CO_(2) geological storage paths,oil price,and electricity price.The results showed that the investment benefit of ordinary NGCC power plants is 93.04 million USD.This provides greater economic advantages than the other two plant types as their investment benefit is negative if the captured CO_(2) was used for enhanced water recovery(EWR),even if 45Q subsidies are provided.Compared with NGCC+CCUS power plants,PC+CCUS and IGCC+CCUS power plants have more advantages in terms of economic benefits and emission reduction.The 45Q subsidy policy reduced the critical carbon price,which determines the decision to invest or not,by 30.14 USDt^(-1) for the PC and IGCC power plants and by 15.24 USDt^(-1) for the NGCC power plants.Nevertheless,only when the subsidy reaches at least 71.84 USDt^(-1) and the period limit is canceled can all three types of power plants be motivated to invest in CCUS and used the capture CO_(2) for EWR.Overall,the government should focus on the application of CCUS in coal-fired power plants(in addition to developing gas power generation),especially when CO_(2) is used for enhanced oil recovery(EOR).The government could introduce fiscal policies,such as 45Q or stronger,to stimulate CCUS technology development in China.