The sensitivities of the initial value and the sampling information to the accuracy of a high accuracy surface modeling(HASM) are investigated and the implementations of this new modeling method are modified and enhan...The sensitivities of the initial value and the sampling information to the accuracy of a high accuracy surface modeling(HASM) are investigated and the implementations of this new modeling method are modified and enhanced. Based on the fundamental theorem of surface theory, HASM is developed to correct the error produced in geographical information system and ecological modeling process. However, the earlier version of HASM is theoretically incomplete and its initial value must be produced by other surface modeling methods, such as spline, which limit its promotion. In other words, we must use other interpolators to drive HASM. According to the fundamental theorem of surface theory, we modify HASM, namely HASM.MOD, by adding another important nonlinear equation to make it independent of other methods and, at the same time, have a complete and solid theory foundation. Two mathematic surfaces and monthly mean temperature of 1951–2010 are used to validate the effectiveness of the new method. Experiments show that the modified version of HASM is insensitive to the selection of initial value which is particular important for HASM. We analyze the sensitivities of sampling error and sampling ratio to the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. It is found that sampling information plays an important role in the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. Another feature of the modified version of HASM is that it is theoretically perfect as it considers the third equation of the surface theory which reflects the local warping of the surface. The modified HASM may be useful with a wide range of spatial interpolation as it would no longer rely on other interpolation methods.展开更多
For preventing ecosystem degradation, protecting natural habitats and conserving biodiversity within the habitats, 2588 nature reserves have been established in China at the end of 2010. The total area is up to 149.44...For preventing ecosystem degradation, protecting natural habitats and conserving biodiversity within the habitats, 2588 nature reserves have been established in China at the end of 2010. The total area is up to 149.44 million ha and covers over 15% of Chinese terrestrial surface. Land-cover change, as the primary driver of biodiversity change, directly impacts ecosystem structures and functions. In this paper, 180 National Nature Reserves (NNRs) are selected and their total area is 44.71 million ha, accounting for 29.9% of all NNRs in China. In terms of the ecosystem characteristics and their major protected object, all selected NNRs are classified into 7 types. A Positive and Negative Change Index of Land-cover (PNCIL) was developed to analyze the land-cover change of each NNRs type from the late 1980s to 2005. The results show that the land-cover of all selected NNRs types have degradated to a certain degree except the forest ecosystem reserves with a decreasing rate, but the rate of degrada tion alleviated gradually. The mean positive and negative change rates of land-cover in all core zones decreased by 0.69% and 0.16% respectively. The landscape pattern of land-cover in the core zones was more stable than that in the buffer zones and the experimental zones. Furthermore, the ecological diversity and patch connectivity of land-cover in selected NNRs increased generally. In short, the land-cover of 180 selected NNRs in China had a beneficial chan qe trend after NNRs established, especially between 1995 and 2005.展开更多
For quantitatively explaining the correlations between the vascular plant species abundance(VPSA) and habitat factors, a spatial simulation method has been developed to simulate the distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai...For quantitatively explaining the correlations between the vascular plant species abundance(VPSA) and habitat factors, a spatial simulation method has been developed to simulate the distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the vascular plant type, land cover, mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, topographic relief, patch connectivity and ecological diversity index were selected to screen the best correlation equation between the VPSA and habitat factors on the basis of 37 national nature reserves on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The research results show that the coefficient of determination between VPSA and habitat factors is 0.94, and the mean error is 2.21 types per km^2. The distribution of VPSA gradually decreases from southeast to northwest, and reduces with increasing altitude except the desert area of Qaidam Basin. Furthermore, the scenarios of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the periods from 1981 to 2010(T0),from 2011 to 2040(T2), from 2041 to 2070(T3) and from 2071 to 2100(T4) were simulated by combining the land cover change and the climatic scenarios of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The simulated results show that the VPSA would generally decrease on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from T0 to T4. The VPSA has the largest change ratio under RCP8.5 scenario, and the smallest change ratio under RCP2.6 scenario. In general, the dynamic change of habitat factors would directly affect the spatial distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the future.展开更多
The method for surface modelling of land cover scenarios(SMLCS)has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in Eurasia.On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data observed from 2127 weather stat...The method for surface modelling of land cover scenarios(SMLCS)has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in Eurasia.On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data observed from 2127 weather stations in Eurasia during 1981-2010,the climatic scenarios data of RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5,and the land cover current data of Eurasia in 2010,the land cover scenarios of Eurasia were respectively simulated.The results show that most land cover types would generally have similar changing trends in the future,but with some difference in different periods under the three scenarios of RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85.Deciduous needleleaf forest,mixed forest,shrub land,wetlands and snow and ice would generally decrease in Eurasia during 2010-2100.Snow and ice would have the fastest decreasing rate that would decrease by 37.42%on average.Shrub land would have the slowest decreasing rate that would decrease by 5.65%on average.Water bodies would have the fastest increasing rate that would increase by 28.78%on average.Barren or sparsely vegetated land would have the slowest increasing rate that would increase by 0.76%.Moreover,the simulated results show that climate change would directly impact on land cover change in Eurasia.展开更多
Land cover change has presented clear spatial differences in the New Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor(NECBEC)region in the 21 st century.A spatiotemporal dynamic probability model and a driving force anal...Land cover change has presented clear spatial differences in the New Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor(NECBEC)region in the 21 st century.A spatiotemporal dynamic probability model and a driving force analysis model of land cover change were developed to analyze explicitly the dynamics and driving forces of land cover change in the NECBEC region.The results show that the areas of grassland,cropland and built-up land increased by 114.57 million ha,8.41 million ha and 3.96 million ha,and the areas of woodland,other land,and water bodies and wetlands decreased by 74.09 million ha,6.26 million ha,and 46.59 million ha in the NECBEC region between 2001 and 2017,respectively.Woodland and other land were mainly transformed to grassland,and grassland was mainly transformed to woodland and cropland.Built-up land had the largest annual rate of increase and 50%of this originated from cropland.Moreover,since the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)commenced in 2013,there has been a greater change in the dynamics of land cover change,and the gaps in the socio-economic development level have gradually decreased.The index of socio-economic development was the highest in western Europe,and the lowest in northern Central Asia.The impacts of socio-economic development on cropland and built-up land were greater than those for other land cover types.In general,in the context of rapid socio-economic development,the rate of land cover change in the NECBEC has clearly shown an accelerating trend since 2001,especially after the launch of the BRI in 2013.展开更多
Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs)and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to glo...Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs)and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to global climate change.In this study,a quantitative spatial identification method was developed to assess ETZ distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone(iHLZ)model.Based on climate observations collected from 782 weather stations in China in the T0(1981–2010)period,and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(IPCC CMIP5)RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the T1(2011–2040),T2(2041–2070),and T3(2071–2100)periods,the spatial distribution of ETZs and their response to climate scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods of T0,T1,T2,and T3.Additionally,a spatial shift of mean center model was developed to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ETZ type during the periods from T0 to T3.The simulated results revealed 41 ETZ types in China,accounting for 18%of the whole land area.Cold temperate grassland/humid forest and warm temperate arid forest(564,238.5 km~2),cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid/humid forest(566,549.75 km~2),and north humid/humid forest and cold temperate humid forest(525,750.25 km~2)were the main ETZ types,accounting for 35%of the total ETZ area in China.Between 2010 and 2100,the area of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub/thorn steppe ETZs were projected to increase at a rate of 4%per decade,which represented an increase of 3604.2,10063.1,and 17,242 km~2 per decade under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.The cold ETZ was projected to transform to the warm humid ETZ in the future.The average shift distance of the mean center in the north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub/thorn grassland ETZs was generally larger than that of other ETZs,with the mean center moving to the northeast and the shift distance being more than 150 km during the periods from T0 to T3.In addition,with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation,the ETZs in northern China displayed a shifting northward trend,while the area of ETZs in southern China decreased gradually,and their mean center moved to high-altitude areas.The effects of climate change on ETZs presented an increasing trend in China,especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.展开更多
基金supported by the Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91325204)National Basic Research Priorities Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(Grant No.2010CB950904)+1 种基金National High-tech R&D Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(Grant No.2013AA122003)the Key Program of National Natural Science of China(Grant No.41023010)
文摘The sensitivities of the initial value and the sampling information to the accuracy of a high accuracy surface modeling(HASM) are investigated and the implementations of this new modeling method are modified and enhanced. Based on the fundamental theorem of surface theory, HASM is developed to correct the error produced in geographical information system and ecological modeling process. However, the earlier version of HASM is theoretically incomplete and its initial value must be produced by other surface modeling methods, such as spline, which limit its promotion. In other words, we must use other interpolators to drive HASM. According to the fundamental theorem of surface theory, we modify HASM, namely HASM.MOD, by adding another important nonlinear equation to make it independent of other methods and, at the same time, have a complete and solid theory foundation. Two mathematic surfaces and monthly mean temperature of 1951–2010 are used to validate the effectiveness of the new method. Experiments show that the modified version of HASM is insensitive to the selection of initial value which is particular important for HASM. We analyze the sensitivities of sampling error and sampling ratio to the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. It is found that sampling information plays an important role in the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. Another feature of the modified version of HASM is that it is theoretically perfect as it considers the third equation of the surface theory which reflects the local warping of the surface. The modified HASM may be useful with a wide range of spatial interpolation as it would no longer rely on other interpolation methods.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271406 No.40801150+3 种基金 China National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, No.40825003 National Basic Research Program of China, No.2009CB421105 No.2010CB95090403 Youth Science Funds of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, CAS
文摘For preventing ecosystem degradation, protecting natural habitats and conserving biodiversity within the habitats, 2588 nature reserves have been established in China at the end of 2010. The total area is up to 149.44 million ha and covers over 15% of Chinese terrestrial surface. Land-cover change, as the primary driver of biodiversity change, directly impacts ecosystem structures and functions. In this paper, 180 National Nature Reserves (NNRs) are selected and their total area is 44.71 million ha, accounting for 29.9% of all NNRs in China. In terms of the ecosystem characteristics and their major protected object, all selected NNRs are classified into 7 types. A Positive and Negative Change Index of Land-cover (PNCIL) was developed to analyze the land-cover change of each NNRs type from the late 1980s to 2005. The results show that the land-cover of all selected NNRs types have degradated to a certain degree except the forest ecosystem reserves with a decreasing rate, but the rate of degrada tion alleviated gradually. The mean positive and negative change rates of land-cover in all core zones decreased by 0.69% and 0.16% respectively. The landscape pattern of land-cover in the core zones was more stable than that in the buffer zones and the experimental zones. Furthermore, the ecological diversity and patch connectivity of land-cover in selected NNRs increased generally. In short, the land-cover of 180 selected NNRs in China had a beneficial chan qe trend after NNRs established, especially between 1995 and 2005.
基金National Key R&D Program of China,No.2017YFA0603702,No.2018YFC0507200National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41271406,No.91325204Innovation Project of LREIS(O88RA600YA)
文摘For quantitatively explaining the correlations between the vascular plant species abundance(VPSA) and habitat factors, a spatial simulation method has been developed to simulate the distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the vascular plant type, land cover, mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, topographic relief, patch connectivity and ecological diversity index were selected to screen the best correlation equation between the VPSA and habitat factors on the basis of 37 national nature reserves on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The research results show that the coefficient of determination between VPSA and habitat factors is 0.94, and the mean error is 2.21 types per km^2. The distribution of VPSA gradually decreases from southeast to northwest, and reduces with increasing altitude except the desert area of Qaidam Basin. Furthermore, the scenarios of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the periods from 1981 to 2010(T0),from 2011 to 2040(T2), from 2041 to 2070(T3) and from 2071 to 2100(T4) were simulated by combining the land cover change and the climatic scenarios of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The simulated results show that the VPSA would generally decrease on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from T0 to T4. The VPSA has the largest change ratio under RCP8.5 scenario, and the smallest change ratio under RCP2.6 scenario. In general, the dynamic change of habitat factors would directly affect the spatial distribution of VPSA on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the future.
基金National Key R&D Program of China,No.2017YFA0603702,No.2018YFC0507200National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41421001,No.41271406Innovation Project of LREIS,N0.O88RA6OOYA。
文摘The method for surface modelling of land cover scenarios(SMLCS)has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in Eurasia.On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data observed from 2127 weather stations in Eurasia during 1981-2010,the climatic scenarios data of RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5,and the land cover current data of Eurasia in 2010,the land cover scenarios of Eurasia were respectively simulated.The results show that most land cover types would generally have similar changing trends in the future,but with some difference in different periods under the three scenarios of RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85.Deciduous needleleaf forest,mixed forest,shrub land,wetlands and snow and ice would generally decrease in Eurasia during 2010-2100.Snow and ice would have the fastest decreasing rate that would decrease by 37.42%on average.Shrub land would have the slowest decreasing rate that would decrease by 5.65%on average.Water bodies would have the fastest increasing rate that would increase by 28.78%on average.Barren or sparsely vegetated land would have the slowest increasing rate that would increase by 0.76%.Moreover,the simulated results show that climate change would directly impact on land cover change in Eurasia.
基金National Key R&D Program of China,No.2017YFA0603702,No.2018YFC0507202National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41971358,No.41930647,No.41977066+1 种基金Strategic Priority Research Program(A)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA20030203Innovation Project of LREIS,No.O88RA600YA。
文摘Land cover change has presented clear spatial differences in the New Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor(NECBEC)region in the 21 st century.A spatiotemporal dynamic probability model and a driving force analysis model of land cover change were developed to analyze explicitly the dynamics and driving forces of land cover change in the NECBEC region.The results show that the areas of grassland,cropland and built-up land increased by 114.57 million ha,8.41 million ha and 3.96 million ha,and the areas of woodland,other land,and water bodies and wetlands decreased by 74.09 million ha,6.26 million ha,and 46.59 million ha in the NECBEC region between 2001 and 2017,respectively.Woodland and other land were mainly transformed to grassland,and grassland was mainly transformed to woodland and cropland.Built-up land had the largest annual rate of increase and 50%of this originated from cropland.Moreover,since the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)commenced in 2013,there has been a greater change in the dynamics of land cover change,and the gaps in the socio-economic development level have gradually decreased.The index of socio-economic development was the highest in western Europe,and the lowest in northern Central Asia.The impacts of socio-economic development on cropland and built-up land were greater than those for other land cover types.In general,in the context of rapid socio-economic development,the rate of land cover change in the NECBEC has clearly shown an accelerating trend since 2001,especially after the launch of the BRI in 2013.
基金National Key R&D Program of China,No.2018YFC0507202,No.2017YFA0603702National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41971358,No.41930647+1 种基金Strategic Priority Research Program(A)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA20030203Innovation Research Project of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System,CAS。
文摘Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs)and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to global climate change.In this study,a quantitative spatial identification method was developed to assess ETZ distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone(iHLZ)model.Based on climate observations collected from 782 weather stations in China in the T0(1981–2010)period,and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(IPCC CMIP5)RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the T1(2011–2040),T2(2041–2070),and T3(2071–2100)periods,the spatial distribution of ETZs and their response to climate scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods of T0,T1,T2,and T3.Additionally,a spatial shift of mean center model was developed to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ETZ type during the periods from T0 to T3.The simulated results revealed 41 ETZ types in China,accounting for 18%of the whole land area.Cold temperate grassland/humid forest and warm temperate arid forest(564,238.5 km~2),cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid/humid forest(566,549.75 km~2),and north humid/humid forest and cold temperate humid forest(525,750.25 km~2)were the main ETZ types,accounting for 35%of the total ETZ area in China.Between 2010 and 2100,the area of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub/thorn steppe ETZs were projected to increase at a rate of 4%per decade,which represented an increase of 3604.2,10063.1,and 17,242 km~2 per decade under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.The cold ETZ was projected to transform to the warm humid ETZ in the future.The average shift distance of the mean center in the north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub/thorn grassland ETZs was generally larger than that of other ETZs,with the mean center moving to the northeast and the shift distance being more than 150 km during the periods from T0 to T3.In addition,with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation,the ETZs in northern China displayed a shifting northward trend,while the area of ETZs in southern China decreased gradually,and their mean center moved to high-altitude areas.The effects of climate change on ETZs presented an increasing trend in China,especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.