0920号超强台风“卢碧”引起的强海上大气波导成因分析与数值模拟研究

基于中国台湾地区主持的侵台台风之飞机侦察及下投式探空仪观测实验(Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region,DOTSTAR)获得的高分辨率下投式探空仪探测资料,分析了2003年9月—2012年8月所有发生在中国台湾地区附近海域的台风型大气波导事件,遴选出一次由0920号超强台风"卢碧"引起的强台风型海上大气波导过程作为研究对象。利用欧洲中期数值预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料(水平分辨率0.125°×0.125°),对此次波导的生成原因进行了分析;基于WRF模式比较了不同初始化方法对台风强度、尺度和周围台风型大气波导的模拟能力。结果表明,此次强台风型大气波导发生在台风环流西北侧外围的弱下沉运动区,其形成与850 hPa高度附近北方强干空气平流导致湿度随高度锐减密切相关。在数值模拟中运用台风动力初始化方法,可以有效改进台风强度、路径和尺度的模拟效果,进而有利于改善台风型大气波导尤其是波导层所在高度的模拟效果。台风外围出现的大气波导通常以悬空波导为主,模拟效果与台风螺旋雨带和内核尺度的模拟关系密切,而与台风强度和眼墙结构关系不大。中尺度数值模式WRF具有模拟台风型大气波导的能力,是研究台风型大气波导的有力手段。

地形追随坐标系下埃特尔位涡的计算

随着数值天气预报模式的日益普及以及位涡在不同天气、气候时、空尺度上的广泛应用,对采用模式输出资料计算的埃特尔(Ertel)位涡的精度提出了更高要求。将气象要素从中尺度模式普遍采用的地形追随坐标系向定义位涡的z或p坐标系的插值过程(插值法),是导致埃特尔位涡计算误差的主要原因。文中利用地形追随坐标系与z(p)坐标系的变换关系,导出了z坐标系定义的埃特尔位涡在地形追随坐标系中的表达形式,实现了直接在模式格点上计算埃特尔位涡(直接法),在提高计算精度的同时,保留了其在z坐标系中的物理意义,方便了分析与应用。为了进一步分析直接法在减少计算误差方面的作用,使用WRF模式对2016年7月发生在华北地区复杂地形背景下的一次黄淮气旋爆发过程进行了模拟,利用模式输出资料对此次天气过程中强降水时段插值法计算误差的分布进行了分析。结果表明,利用直接法计算位涡可有效减少插值法引入的计算误差,中低层均方根误差可达0.5 PVU,中高层可达0.3 PVU。将其应用到中小尺度对流性天气精细化结构的分析及气候统计研究中,可以有效减少插值法误差对结果产生的不良影响,提高计算和分析准确度。

西北太平洋环境风垂直切变和热带气旋移动对涡旋内对流非对称分布影响的特征分析

热带气旋(TC)预报特别是强度预报是当今大气科学研究和业务预报的重点、难点问题,TC环流内部的对流系统对气旋的结构和强度变化有着十分重要的影响。利用FY-2C/2E黑体亮温(TBB)资料和NCEP分析资料,研究了2005—2012年西北太平洋热带气旋外雨带区的对流非对称分布特征,及其与环境风垂直切变和TC移动的关系。分析发现,整层风垂直切变的方向与TBB一波非对称大值区关于方位角的分布有很好的对应关系。在弱整层风垂直切变条件下(<5 m/s),TC移动引起的非对称摩擦效应会使对流易出现在移动方向的右前象限。在中强整层风垂直切变条件下(>5 m/s),风切变成为影响对流非对称分布的主要因子,TC外螺旋雨带区的对流集中于顺风切方向及其左侧,对流偏离顺切变左侧的程度一方面受到TC内逆时针环流的影响,另一方面与风垂直切变的强度有关:对于发展阶段的TC,当风垂直切变增强时,一波非对称分布更加显著,切变越强,TC强度越大,外雨带区的对流越偏离顺风切左侧;对于消亡阶段的TC,风垂直切变的影响作用并不明显。

陆地下垫面与环境气流对锋面气旋发展过程影响的理想试验

地面摩擦和大尺度流场是影响锋面气旋结构演变的重要因子,本文使用WRF模式并采用湿物理方案,通过理想化试验,综合考虑陆面摩擦、气旋式扰动相对于急流位置和大尺度流场对锋面气旋结构变化的影响.结果表明:当仅考虑单一因子时,气旋式扰动位于急流南侧和辐合流流场有利于气旋形成Shapiro-Keyser(S-K)模型结构.当同时考虑地面摩擦和大尺度辐合时,气旋式扰动位于急流北侧的气旋发展整体向经典的挪威气旋模型转变;扰动位于急流南侧的的气旋发展则整体呈现S-K模型结构,此时辐合流场有利于S-K模型结构出现.当同时考虑地面摩擦和大尺度辐散时,扰动处于急流北侧的气旋呈现挪威气旋模型结构;由于气旋式扰动穿越急流和辐散流场同时有利于暖锋后弯发展以及冷暖锋距离加大和锋消,扰动处于急流南侧的气旋呈现典型S-K气旋模型结构.这个结果解释了在东亚大陆地区辐散场形势下出现的S-K模型结构气旋个例.

Impacts of the Lowest Model Level Height on Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure

Variable thicknesses in the lowest half-ηmodel level （LML） are often used in atmospheric models to compute surface diagnostic fields such as surface latent and sensible heat fluxes.The effects of the LML on simulated tropical cyclone （TC）evolution were investigated in this study using the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model.The results demonstrated notable influences of the LML on TC evolution when the LML was placed below 12 m.The TC intensification rate decreased progressively with a lowering of the LML,but its ultimate intensity change was relatively small.The maximum 10-m winds showed different behavior to minimum sea level pressure and azimuthally-averaged tangential winds,and thus the windpressure relationship was changed accordingly by varying the LML.The TC circulation was more contracted in association with a higher LML.Surface latent heat fluxes were enhanced greatly by elevating the LML,wherein the wind speed at the LML played a dominant role.The changes in the wind speed at the LML were dependent not only on their profile differences,but also the different heights they were taken from.Due to the enhanced surface heat fluxes,more intense latent heat release occurred in the eyewall,which boosted the storm＇s intensification.A higher LML tended to produce a stronger storm,and therefore the surface friction was reinforced,which in turn induced stronger boundary layer inflow together with increased diabatic heating.

气溶胶与边界层浅云的相互作用对远海高压型悬空波导数值模拟的影响

远海悬空波导陷获层底的位置通常与边界层浅云的云顶有很好的对应,气溶胶与边界层浅云的相互作用及其产生的辐射强迫将改变悬空波导的结构.文中利用天气预报-化学(weather research and forecasting-chemistry,WRF-Chem)模式通过设计不包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射的EXP0试验(相当于WRF模式)和包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射相互作用(即气溶胶直接和间接效应)的EXP1试验,对2016年5月观测到的一次珍贵的远海高压型超强悬空波导过程进行了模拟分析.结果表明:远海高压天气形势下,EXP1试验模拟的由气溶胶活化后形成的云滴数浓度比EXP0试验云滴数浓度预设常值(100个cm-3)偏低;当伴随边界层浅云出现时,EXP1试验模拟的波导顶高和强度较EXP0试验更接近于实测;夜间进行的3次观测位于高压中心附近的无云区,此时气溶胶的直接和间接效应均可忽略,因此两组试验模拟的差异极小.这一结果从侧面说明,在有边界层浅云出现的远海区域,包含完整气溶胶-云-辐射效应的WRF-Chem模式有利于提高悬空波导特征量的模拟效果.

Remote Impact of Blocking Highs on the Sudden Track Reversal of Tropical Cyclones

Previous work showed that some tropical cyclones （TCs） in the western Pacific Ocean undergo sudden track reversal, and the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking highs （BHs） coexisted with 19 of the studied TCs with sudden track reversal. In these cases, the phase relations between the BH, the continental high （CH）, the subtropical high （SH） and the suddenly reversed TCs could be classified into types A, B, C and D. Types C and D were the focal point of this follow-up study, in which Typhoon Pabuk （2007） and Lupit （2009） were employed to conduct numerical simulations. The results showed that the reversed tracks of Pabuk （2007） and Lupit （2009） could have been affected by the BH, particularly in terms of the turning location and the trend of movement after turning. Specifically, the two main features for Pabuk （2007） in the BH perturbations were the deflection of its turning point and a distinct anticlockwise rotation. Lupit （2009） deviated to the southwest and finally made landfall in the Philippines, or experienced further eastward movement, in the perturbed BH. The impact mechanisms can be attributed to the change in the vorticity field transported from the BH, leading to an intensity variation of midlatitude systems. BHs may have a positive feedback effect on the strength of the westerly trough （TR）, as indicated by a weakened and strengthened TR corresponding to negative and positive BH perturbations, respectively.

Effect of Sea Spray on the Numerical Simulation of Super Typhoon ‘Ewiniar’

To study the potential effect of sea spray on the evolution of typhoons,two kinds of sea spray flux parameterization schemes developed by Andreas (2005) and Andreas and Wang (2006) and Fairall et al. (1994) respectively are incorporated into the regional atmospheric Mesoscale Model version 3.6 (MM5V3) of Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) and the coupled atmosphere-sea spray modeling system is applied to simulate a Western Pacific super ty-phoon Ewiniar in 2006. The simulation results demonstrate that sea spray can lead to a significant increase in heat fluxes at the air-sea interface and the simulated typhoon’s intensity. Compared with the results without sea spray,the minimum sea level pressure reduces about 8hPa after taking account of sea spray by Fairall et al.’s parameterization (1994) and about 5hPa by Andreas’ (2005) and Andreas and Wang’s (2006) parameterization at the end of the model integration,while the maximum 10m wind speed increases about 17% and 15% on average,respectively,through the entire simulation time period. Taking sea spray into account also causes significant changes in Tropical Cyclone (TC) structure due to an enhancement of water vapor and heat transferred from the sea sur-face to the air; therefore,the center structure of the typhoon becomes more clearly defined and the wind speed around the typhoon eye is stronger in numerical experiments. The simulations show that different sea spray flux parameterizations make different modi-fications to the TC structure.

An improved QuikSCAT wind retrieval algorithm and eye locating for typhoon

This paper proposes a rain considered geophysical model function （GMF）, to be noted as GMF plus Rain. GMF plus Rain is based on the basic raidative transfer model with attenuation and scattering effects of rain on radar signal considered. Combined with the NSCAT2 GMF and the rain correction model, the GMF plus Rain model is used to retrieve the ocean wind vectors from the collocated QuikSCAT and SSM/I rain rate data for typhoon Melor. The resulting wind speed estimates of typhoon Melor show improved agreement with the wind fields derived from the best track analysis of Japan Meteorological Agency （JMA）. The results imply that compared with the GMF model, the GMF plus Rain model can improve the precision of wind retrieval under the rain condition. Then, a new general algorithm of locating the eye of typhoon through the normalized radar cross section （NRCS） is proposed. The implementation of this algorithm in the ten QuikSCAT observations of typhoon Melor suggests that this algorithm is effective.

Statistical Characteristics and Mechanistic Analysis of Suddenly Reversed Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean

Based on best track data of tropical cyclones（TCs） from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the characteristics of suddenly reversed TCs（SRTCs）, which have turning angles usually approaching 180°, are statistically analyzed from 1949 to 2011 over the western North Pacific Ocean. The typical large-scale circulation patterns of SRTCs are investigated using reanalysis data and dynamical composite analysis. Results show that turnings mainly occur in low latitudes between 10°N and 20°N,and mainly west of 135°E. The majority of SRTCs reach their peak intensity at, or slightly before, the turning time and subsequently decrease at some variable rate. Specifically, SRTCs are divided into four types, each containing two groups（i.e.eight groups in total） in terms of the moving-direction changes. The moving speed of all SRTC types except the south–north type decreases to its lowest during the 24 h, corresponding to a significant reduction in the primary steering components.According to the analysis of the 13 typical flow patterns found in this study, we suggest that sudden track changes are caused by the reversal steering flow. The original balance of the background flow patterns are broken up by new systems, e.g. binary TCs or dispersion-induced anticyclones. Additionally, sudden track changes are often due to double ridge variations of the subtropical high or weakened/strengthened high pressure in the east and west, respectively.

热带气旋Rossby波能量频散问题研究进展

热带气旋是发生在热带洋面上的强烈气旋性涡旋.由于地转涡度梯度的存在,热带气旋在移动过程中不断发生Rossby波能量频散,并在热带气旋运动方向的后部激发出反气旋和气旋交替排列的Rossby波能量频散波列.多热带气旋共存和热带气旋的异常运动是当前国际热带气旋研究领域的热点问题,热带气旋Rossby能量频散被证实与多个热带气旋连续生成和异常运动密切相关.本文从热带气旋能量频散及波列特征、主要影响因子、反馈作用等方面,回顾总结了国内外关于热带气旋Rossby波能量频散的相关研究进展,并提出当前亟待解决的一些科学问题.目的是为深入研究热带气旋Rossby波能量频散及其影响提供基础和参考,以期使更多的研究学者关注热带气旋能量频散问题,从而进一步揭示热带气旋生成、发展和异常运动的动力学机理.

一次黑潮海洋锋强迫下的蒸发波导突变性与非均匀性的观测与模拟研究

蒸发波导是影响海上雷达系统探测性能的主导机制,海表温度(SST)锋带来的蒸发波导非均匀性和突变性具有重要的研究价值。2018年春季航次“海气相互作用观测试验”,曾两次穿越黑潮海域获取了珍贵的观测资料。在此基础上,结合欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)再分析资料(ERA-Interim)和HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories)气块轨迹溯源,分离出两个重要的走航观测时段。S1段(持续约21 h)气流从暖海水区吹向冷海水区,以稳定层结为主,其间因黑潮海洋锋的存在,气流由黑潮主体的暖水区吹向大陆冷海区时,形成具有强逆温层的海洋边界层,并伴随海雾的生成,导致此处蒸发波导高度突降为0。此后为持续近66 h的S2段,气流由冷海水区吹向暖海水区,以近中性弱不稳定层结为主,蒸发波导高度基本维持在12 m高度。数值模拟结果表明,模拟时段内的黑潮海洋锋区,蒸发波导高度突变性和非均匀性始终存在,且伴随暖海水吹向冷海水的锋区突变性更强。黑潮海洋锋对蒸发波导的这种天气尺度强迫作用的加强与层结稳定度的突变和海雾的生成有关。

台风双眼墙形成及眼墙替换过程的研究进展

台风双眼墙受到大尺度环境场强迫(如垂直风切变和高空槽/急流等)、海气相互作用和涡旋内部热动力过程共同作用,双眼墙的形成及其演变一直是台风研究中的热点和难点.虽然学术界提出了许多双眼墙形成和眼墙替换的可能机制,但一直未达成共识,尤其在平衡和非平衡、对称与非对称过程对双眼墙形成的相对贡献,以及边界层超梯度风的作用等方面还存在许多争议.本文重点梳理过去十余年来,国内外台风双眼墙统计特征、形成机制和演变机理等方面的发展现状及最新研究进展,讨论分析双眼墙研究中有待进一步解决的问题和发展方向,以期为下一步台风双眼墙研究提供有益的借鉴和参考.

Effect of wind-current interaction on ocean response during Typhoon KAEMI(2006)

天气研究并且(WAVEWATCH III ) 预报(WRF ) 模特儿，普林斯顿海洋模型(POM ) ，和波浪当模特儿被用来开发 a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean 模型，它包括 air-forcing，海洋反馈，导致波浪的混合和波浪水流相互作用包含不同物理过程。在这篇论文，台风 KAEMI (2006 ) 被检验了基于联合 atmosphere-ocean-wave 模型在海洋反应上调查风水流相互作用的效果，即，就海表面而言，在风的计算的水流强调。结果证明风水流相互作用在 10 m 弯屈的模拟上有显著影响。包含风水流相互作用的效果的模型能戏剧性地改进台风预言。风水流相互作用阻止过多的动量流动被变成上面的海洋，它贡献小得多的骚乱动能(TKE ) ，垂直扩散性，和水平移流和散开。冷却在台风开发的起始的阶段期间由风水流相互作用导致了的海表面温度(SST ) 是那么次要的台风紧张不对它很敏感。当台风到达它的山峰时，它的风能扰乱 thermocline，并且在 thermocline 下面的冷水被打气。然而，这个冷却过程被风水流相互作用削弱，当海洋反馈推迟台风的腐烂。同时，在 30 m 的深度下面的温度与一个时期显示出惯性的摆动大约 40 个小时(17 瘠癩? 敲灳湯吗？

A regional simulation study on dispersion of nuclear pollution from the damaged Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

A nuclear accident involving the leaking of radioactive pollutants occurred at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant in Japan,following an earthquake and subsequent tsunami on March 11,2011.Using official Japanese data on pollutant emissions during the accident,this study simulates the dispersion of nuclear pollutants.The source term of the nuclear leakage of radioactive material is designed using PM2.5as the tracer of radioactive pollutants,and the study considers dry and wet deposition processes.A coupled-model system is constructed from the air-quality model Models-3/CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric model.The transport path and distribution of radioactive pollutants over long and short distances are simulated with different model horizontal resolutions of 30 and 4 km respectively.The long-distance simulation shows that,following the Fukushima nuclear accident,under the effect of westerly winds,radioactive pollutants are transported generally towards the eastern Pacific and reach the American continent after 5 days,but their concentration is only about 10–7 times the concentration near the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.The time required for pollutants to reach the United States is basically consistent with measurements made in California on March 18.Because the upper westerly wind is faster than the lower westerly wind,the distribution of pollutants tilts eastward in terms of its vertical structure.The short-distance(local)highresolution simulation indicates that strong winds and precipitation associated with a cyclone can accelerate the deposition,diffusion and transport of pollutions,and local cyclonic circulation can change the transport path of pollutants,even resulting in repeated effects of pollution in some areas.Pollutants disperse to southeastern Honshu,Japan,on March 14,2011,agreeing well with the timing of local observations of increases in the absorbed dose rate.Results also show that radioactive pollutants from the Fukushima nuclear accident are mainly transported and diffuse eastward,resulting in a relatively short-term impact on the Japanese mainland even under the influence of the cyclone system.Therefore,in terms of atmospheric conditions,the location of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant is appropriate and could serve as a reference to site selection and protection of other nuclear facilities.

卫星高度计融合产品的研发综述

卫星高度计融合产品广泛应用于海洋环境监测、海洋中尺度系统研究和海洋数值预报等业务领域,具有极高的科学和社会价值。当前同时在轨运行并发布沿轨数据的高度计卫星维持在5—6颗,为了立足现有数量的观测卫星,最大程度地提取有效观测信息,本文以改进融合产品的有效分辨率并提升高度计产品质量为主线,详细介绍了现有卫星高度计融合产品的研发现状。前人的研究结果表明:卫星高度计融合产品的质量主要3个方面的影响:(1)制作产品所选择的卫星种类:因不同种类卫星的轨道高度、周期差异,导致获取的海表高度时空精度也存在不同;(2)高度计标准的选择:资料处理中的仪器参数、地球物理参数、环境校正、平均海面的构造等;(3)融合处理资料的方法:不同融合方法在背景场的选择、背景误差相关系数尺度的差异以及观测误差的处理等。针对众多学者关注的热点和亟需解决的难点问题,本文系统地介绍了当前卫星高度计融合产品的种类,对比分析产品质量。同时针对卫星高度计的融合方法,着重介绍了卫星高度计融合产品质量的提升途径。文中进一步强调了融合方法与有效分辨率的关系,为提升卫星高度计融合产品质量,提高融合产品的有效分辨率,扩大卫星高度计融合产品的应用范围提供参考。

The four dimensional variational data assimilation with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint(Tikh-4D-Var) and its preliminary application on typhoon initialization

Traditional variational data assimilation(VDA) with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of "four dimensional variational data assimilation(4D-Var) with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint(Tikh-4D-Var)" is proposed by imposing different regularization parameters for different observations. Meanwhile, a new multiple regularization parameters selection method, which is suitable for actual high-dimensional data assimilation system, is proposed based on the posterior information of 4D-Var system. Compared with the traditional single regularization parameter selection method, computation of the proposed multiple regularization parameters selection method is smaller. Based on WRF3.3.1 4D-Var data assimilation system, initialization and simulation of typhoon Chaba(2010) with the new Tikh-4D-Var method are compared with its counterpart 4D-Var to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method. Results show that the new Tikh-4D-Var method can accelerate the convergence with less iterations. Moreover, compared with 4D-Var method, the typhoon track, intensity(including center surface pressure and maximum wind speed) and structure prediction are obviously improved with Tikh-4D-Var method for 72-h prediction. In addition, the accuracy of the observation error variances can be reflected by the multiple regularization parameters.