道德风险下带有Knight不确定的最优动态契约设计

本文从概率统计模型本身的不确定性是本质的、不能消除掉的角度出发,研究了Knight不确定下连续时间委托-代理问题,其中主要考虑了代理人的道德风险对契约执行过程以及契约存续情况的影响.首先,建立了代理人延续价值以及委托人预期利润的动态方程.其次,运用次线性期望下的随机最优性原理,以更加准确、深刻的方法去刻画实际委托人和代理人经济行为,进而得到委托人效用值函数的Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB)方程,并求得委托人对代理人最优支付以及代理人最优努力水平的表达式.最后,通过理论解的数值模拟,分析了Knight不确定对委托人和代理人最优策略以及最优契约的影响.

在部分信息下带通胀的最优交易策略

由于金融市场的复杂性和信息的不完全性,我们有必要考虑不完全信息的金融市场,同时在市场的投资者决策中通胀因也成决策的一个重要因素,因此,本文将探讨在部分信息下带有通胀影响的最优投资策略问题.首先,利用随机微分方程理论建立股票价格的动力学方程,使用伊藤公式推导出消费篮子价格动力学方程,并用其折现股票价格得到更加符合实际市场的股票价格动力学方程.其次,利用非线性滤波理论和鞅技术将部分信息下问题的研究转化成完全信息下的情形.最后在效用最大化的前提下,使用隐马尔科夫滤波和Malliavin分析,求解出最优投资组合的显式解,并对特别情形进行数值模拟和经济分析.数值分析表明,通胀的不确定对投资者的最优决策将会有较大影响.

Optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and retirement selection based on α-maxmin expected CES utility with ambiguity

This article studies optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and retirement selection of an infinitely lived investor whose preference is formulated by a-maxmin expected CES utility which is to differentiate ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. Adopting the recursive multiple- priors utility and the technique of backward stochastic differential equations （BSDEs）, we transform the （^-maxmin expected CES utility into a classical expected CES utility under a new probability measure related to the degree of an investor＇s uncertainty. Our model investi- gates the optimal consumption-leisure-work selection, the optimal portfolio selection, and the optimal stopping problem. In this model, the investor is able to adjust her supply of labor flex- ibly above a certain minimum work-hour along with a retirement option. The problem can be analytically solved by using a variational inequality. And the optimal retirement time is given as the first time when her wealth exceeds a certain critical level. The optimal consumption-leisure and portfolio strategies before and after retirement are provided in closed forms. Finally, the distinctions of optimal consumption-leisure, portfolio and critical wealth level under ambiguity from those with no vagueness are discussed.

Existence and Stability of Solutions to Highly Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Delay Equations Driven by G-Brownian Motion

Under linear expectation (or classical probability), the stability for stochastic differential delay equations (SDDEs), where their coefficients are either linear or nonlinear but bounded by linear functions, has been investigated intensively. Recently, the stability of highly nonlinear hybrid stochastic differential equations is studied by some researchers. In this paper, by using Peng’s G-expectation theory, we first prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions to SDDEs driven by G-Brownian motion (G-SDDEs) under local Lipschitz and linear growth conditions. Then the second kind of stability and the dependence of the solutions to G-SDDEs are studied. Finally, we explore the stability and boundedness of highly nonlinear G-SDDEs.

通胀风险对最优工作选择、消费和投资的影响

研究了在通胀环境下连续无限时间范围内经济代理人的最优工作选择、消费以及投资决策问题.首先利用伊藤公式推导出通胀折现后的真实财富过程.然后基于消费和闲暇的预期总效用最大化标准,利用鞅方法来获得最优工作选择、消费以及投资决策的闭型解.最后,在给定参数情况下,通过数值模拟定量分析了通胀波动率分别对最优消费和投资策略的影响.

Estimating the shareholder's terminal payoff based on insurer's solvency ratio in mixed fractional Brownian market

This paper studies the insurer’s solvency ratio model in a class of mixed fractional Brownian motion(MFBM) market, where the prices of assets follow a Wick-It? stochastic differential equation driven by the MFBM, by the method of the stochastic calculus of the MFBM and the pricing formula of European call option for the MFBM, the explicit formula for the expected present value of shareholders’ terminal payoff is given. The model extends the existing results.

On existence and uniqueness of solutions to uncertain backward stochastic differential equations

This paper is concerned with a class of uncertain backward stochastic differential equations （UBSDEs） driven by both an m-dimensional Brownian motion and a d-dimensional canonical process with uniform Lipschitzian coefficients. Such equations can be useful in mod- elling hybrid systems, where the phenomena are simultaneously subjected to two kinds of un- certainties： randomness and uncertainty. The solutions of UBSDEs are the uncertain stochastic processes. Thus, the existence and uniqueness of solutions to UBSDEs with Lipschitzian coeffi- cients are proved.

通胀对高管的股权激励和工作努力策略的影响

股权激励能够使得公司与高管的共同利益最大化,并且解决由于信息不对称所产生的委托代理问题。高管不可观测的工作控制着公司股票价格。由于高管的真实财富受到市场通胀不确定性的影响,本文研究了通胀环境下,以风险厌恶和工作努力效率为特质的高管,在银行无风险资产账户、市场投资组合和公司股票间寻求最优配置以达到个人终端真实财富预期效用最大化。首先利用伊藤公式得到了高管的真实财富过程;其次利用动态规划原理构建了满足最优工作努力策略和股权激励问题的哈密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼(HJB)方程,并找到了解析解;最后对结果进行了数值模拟,并从经济学的角度分析了通胀风险对高管的股权激励和工作努力策略的影响。本文研究表明:由于通胀不确定性影响着高管财富的实际价值,当高管财富效用服从对数函数时,公司股票占高管个人财富的最优比例不受通胀风险影响,但是高管在市场投资组合的投资比例随通胀波动率的增加而下降,进而影响到高管对市场投资组合账户和银行无风险资产账户的投资比例。高管的财富效用服从幂函数时,对于长期契约,股权激励代表的长远共同利益引导着高管看好公司的发展前景,激励着高管付出更高水平的努力,此时通胀带来的货币贬值风险对高管的的影响较小;而对于短期契约,长远共同利益的缺乏和通胀风险的变大诱导着高管的短视行为,高管将减持公司股票并且减少努力。本文所得结论对公司的股权激励理论做了有益的补充。

基于区块链的算力优化模型

针对区块链的工作量证明协议,本文将算力看作时间的函数,使用一段时间内的累积算力作为基本参量展开分析研究。首先,从挖矿找到随机数这一事件入手,建立挖矿收益与确定性等价收入模型,发现矿工单独挖矿的风险较大,加入矿池联合挖矿能带来更大的风险分担收益。其次,建立矿池管理者关于池费的最大化期望效用模型和矿工关于自身算力分配的最大化收益模型,并通过建模分析,得到关于池费、风险规避参数、矿池算力增长比例、矿池初始被动算力规模等重要参数之间的关系。最后,通过数值模拟,验证所得结论并给出经济学解释。研究表明,矿池中的风险规避需求对池费的影响、池费对算力投入的影响等经济学结论与经典的经济学理论密切相关。